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> Tangent but: I doubt the rate raise will stick. They'll probably have to cut it again. I see a "planet Japan" scenario in which global central banks are zero-
by pdq 11y ago
> Tangent but: I doubt the rate raise will stick. They'll probably have to cut it again. I see a "planet Japan" scenario in which global central banks are zero-bound for decades, if not "forever". Rapid growth is over.
Agreed nominal interest rates will likely drop down again to zero to restimulate the economy, but I doubt that will stick for the next decade, as inflation should creep back in forcing the Fed's hand. However, if you believe that "real interest rates" (ie subtracting inflation) will be zero for a long time, I can concur -- currently they are negative.
- api 11y ago"Zero-bound" means "at or near zero." Inflation is easy to kill in today's world: just raise interest rates a little tiny bit for a short period of time and the deflationary downdraft will snuff any little inflationary ticks upward. But they'll be forced to drop rates again quickly or we'll fall back into deflation. The instant they raise rates the debt defaults and asset price collapses will start. Earth is now Japan. Perhaps Mars is the next America.
- matzipan 11y agoEarth is not Japan yet. We still have China and India...
- api 11y agoChina is facing a demographic cliff similar to what happened to Japan after the 80s boom. India and Africa could experience growth for a while but they have major problems, chief among them very deep structural corruption at all levels of society. Even if they can overcome this they will eventually face the same demographic cliff as China today and Japan in the 90s.