7 ms·

Steve Yegge's predictions from 2004

117 points by gozzoo 17y ago

icey 17y ago
TL;DR: Prediction #1: XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. Prediction #2: Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Prediction #3: Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Prediction #4: Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. Prediction #5: Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. Prediction #6: A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. Prediction #7: The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Prediction #8: Someday I will voluntarily pay Google for one of their services. Prediction #9: Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. Prediction #10: In five years' time, most programmers will still be average.
- apu 17y ago
  OK, I'll take a stab at them. (Yes, I did read his Important Note, but why not?) Status: 1: No 2: No (I think). I don't know if Google App Engine is making money for them, and Github doesn't host apps, and Amazon Web Services doesn't (only) host open-source web apps. 3: Hopefully. 4: Doubtful, but one can dream =) 5: No. 6: HN? Is Steve Yegge here? 7: Yes. I think it's valid to put the iphone's success in 2009 (rather than earlier) due to the large number of apps and growing number of competitors in that year. 8: Well, considering he's working there, I think he's being paid instead =) 9: Probably. 10: Yes, although it's not a tautology. (You could have asymmetric heavy tails which would make most programmers below or above the mean.)
  - gstar 17y ago
    If you take prediction 1 as key-value stores (which I think is more-or-less where stevey was going) - he's spot on.
    - Quarrelsome 17y ago
      "surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011" Are you really sure about that? AFAIK the use case for key-value stores isn't one that a lot of people are going to suffer (seriously high-volume).
    - miloshh 17y ago
      I think there was a lot of excitement about XML databases around that time, because they would let you store more complex structures in the DB, not less complex (like key-value). Somehow XML did not take off, not sure why.
- jimbokun 17y ago
  #1 is kinda sorta like the NoSQL movement (hierarchical versus relational modeling, do away with much of the O-R impedance mismatch). #2 Github? #3 The evils of threads, and how to replace them with something else to use multi-cores, is very high on the list of blogged about programming topics. Several new languages have staked their claim to fame largely on how they handle concurrency. So, yes, this one was understated, if anything. #4 Not there yet, but might be on that trajectory if there is some "tipping point" of Java programmers en masse getting fed up with Java's limitations. There are certainly enough alternative JVM languages to choose from. #5 Does Clojure make the top 10? Certainly not in number of users, but maybe in most popular to blog about. #6 Facebook. #7 iPhone was released June, 2007, beating his prediction by a couple of years. #8 Maybe if you buy an Android phone from them? #9 Apple laptops are immensely popular, but the scale of this prediction was a little ridiculous. Between iPhone and iPod, it's possible that there are more people who own an Apple product than own a product from all those companies combined. #10 Now that's just insulting. Who's he calling average?
  - revorad 17y ago
    #10 Now that's just insulting. Who's he calling average? The average programmer.
    - polynomial 17y ago
      As if that weren't bad enough, at least half of them are still below average.
      - nuclear_eclipse 17y ago
        Only if it's a standard distribution (eg bell curve). It's quite possible with a non-standard distribution to have much more than half above average as well. Now median on the other hand, by definition, separates the distribution in half... </pedantic>
        plorkyeran 17y ago
- fogus 17y ago
  "Prediction #10: In five years' time, most programmers will still be average." In order to sleep through the night, I'll just assume that he's not talking about me.
intellectronica 17y ago
So basically he didn't get anything but #6 (facebook) and #10 (which is more of an insider joke than a prediction) right. Remember this next time you read Yegge's rants.
- fishercs 17y ago
  facebook was already out in 2004, and everyone was on myspace.
  - intellectronica 17y ago
    Good point. That wasn't hard to predict.
- randallsquared 17y ago
  Remember this next time you read Yegge's rants. Well, even deep understanding doesn't imply the ability to predict, unless chance plays little role -- a stipulation which is manifestly not the case, here. Edit: grammar
  - intellectronica 17y ago
    Deep understanding should discourage one from making predictions, though.
    - randallsquared 17y ago
      Depends on your goal. If your goal is to avoid making statements that are wrong, then sure. If your goal is to be interesting and say provocative things, maybe not so much. :)
- intellectronica 17y ago
  I'm surprised to see that I'm getting a negative response to this comment. Would someone care to explain what makes it so controversial?
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
gfunk911 17y ago
You guys seem to be saying he was wrong on most of them. I strongly disagree. Sure, he didn't nail every one exactly, because he's not psychic, but for all of them, he correctly saw the trend, and he's very in the ballpark. 1. This is happening, just not as quickly as he thought, and with JSON. (XML Databases) 2. If you actually read what he wrote, this is obviously happening. EC2, Github, Heroku. (Open Source Hosting) 3. Using processes instead of threads is absolutely rising in popularity. 4. Off on the timing, but we are in the middle of an explosion of other JVM languages. The JVM has clearly established itself as the best way to launch a new language. 5. Off on the timing, possibly off completely. Clojure is gaining in popularity, which ties in with #4. (Lisp in the Top 10) 6. Facebook. This one was easy. (Community Hangout) 7. He was actually late on this one. iPhone obviously. (Mobile Computing 5 Years Out) 8. Google Apps. (I'll Pay Google) 9. Wrong literally, but if you take out netbooks, which weren't around, Apple sells the large majority of $1000+ laptops, and they obviously sell a ton of iPhones, which are just small computing devices. (Apple Selling Laptops)
- j_baker 17y ago
  In fact, he was the first to point out that most of them were wrong. But he did get the general concept right in most cases.
- qeorge 17y ago
  Re #2, I don't think its fair to count EC2, Github, or Heroku, unless you're also counting any shared hosting that lets you run PHP. I think what Steve was referring to was people paying for hosted versions of specific pieces of open source software, e.g., a hosted version of SugarCRM, not the ability to run open source software in general. It was still prescient though, because we're starting to see that. For instance, you can do this with Azure + SugarCRM.
- pvg 17y ago
  He's still wrong on most of them, whether you strongly disagree or not. 1. This one is so mushy, it's wrong just because of it. Substituting your favourite representation format (JSON instead of XML) doesn't make it any better or really anything to do with databases. 2. It's happening if you think EC2, Github and Heroku are somehow comparable. Also which one of these is making 'a lot of money' as predicted? 3. Your response doesn't actually address the prediction. Also, Clojure, Erlang, blah blah. 4. Just hasn't happened. 5. See above. 6. And Twitter and 'a new internet community hangout will appear' in 5 years is the most solid bet you can make on the internet. 7. It happened to be 5 years out or under. Oh well. 8. Nobody, statistically, pays Google for anything. Other than adwords. 9. Straight out wrong. I think that easily qualifies for 'wrong on most of them'.
j_baker 17y ago
I think #10 is pretty much a truism (but still important to remember!).
antirez 17y ago
#1: XML DB has nothing to do with NoSQL. Even if there is some external similarity with document stores actually the main point of the author is that people don't want to perform conversions. This was not the reason NoSQL started at all and not our main problem with SQL in the latest years. #2: This has nothing to do with Github or hosting of source code. Here the author was referring to sell the service of running a web application for you, like a forum or a wiki, and so forth. something like vanilla forums or wordpress.org are doing indeed. IMHO this prediction was more or less totally wrong, as the latest five years showed us that web applications are a big business but companies will try to rewrite from scratch the product they are offering in order to take it closed source, to offer more in terms of usability, and probably even for scalability concerns. Actually the reverse happened, for instance Reddit instead to use a Digg clone wrote the code, and later released it as open source.
ZachPruckowski 17y ago
The important thing to remember when grading predictions is that most predictions are about trends. So the important thing isn't whether "The Year of MobilePhone Computing" was 2008 or 2009 or 2010, the important thing is that it was still a few years off from 2004. It's the same thing as the "Singularity" guy's predictions. When you're predicting things 6 months in advance, you should get graded on a lot harder of a curve than predicting things 6 years in advance or 16 years in advance.
sker 17y ago
I think he nailed it with prediction #7. Many of you are saying he was late because the iPhone was released in 2007. Well, the iPhone SDK wasn't released until 2008 and the industry didn't step up to the game until 2009 when a bunch of Android handsets started to come out. I do think he was wrong on most of the others, though.
presidentender 17y ago
I used to be a 'wizard' (player admin) for Yegge's GMUD, Wyvern (he mentions it occasionally in his newer world-facing blog; it can be found at www.cabochon.com). He doesn't just make predictions like this, he actually bets on them. For example, he bet that people would want to play a game with deep and intriguing gameplay regardless of the graphics. Then he bet that people would want to play it on a handheld device (specifically, he targeted the Sharp Zaurus, but the game is compatible with some other palmtops of the same era). I think he's right on the first count, but too early on the second (targeting the iPhone, for instance, would probably have been more successful). There are a number of other reasons the game didn't take off, but the point is that he's not an armchair pundit, shouting that we should all listen to him and take action based on his foresight. If anything, he's taking action, and just logging the predictions that prompted him.
- brianwisti 17y ago
  Wyvern on an iPhone. That's exactly what I want to see, and what the other games I've been playing don't quite match up to. It has a low demand on the graphics and network side of things, but has a rich and rewarding game play experience. For me, obviously. I haven't played that for a few years. I'm going to have to start again.
  - presidentender 17y ago
    I don't know exactly what it was, but the game lost a lot of magic for me at some point. Now the aesthetic is totally different, and I just can't get back into it.
bioweek 17y ago
It sucks he didn't put a date on that post. Kind of an egregious oversite, right.
- rudd 17y ago
  Not sure if you're being sarcastic, but the date is right at the bottom of the post: "(Published Nov 10th, 2004)"

117 points by gozzoo 17y ago

icey 17y ago

TL;DR: Prediction #1: XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. Prediction #2: Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Prediction #3: Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Prediction #4: Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. Prediction #5: Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. Prediction #6: A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. Prediction #7: The mobile/wireless/handheld market is still at least 5 years out. Prediction #8: Someday I will voluntarily pay Google for one of their services. Prediction #9: Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. Prediction #10: In five years' time, most programmers will still be average.

apu 17y ago
OK, I'll take a stab at them. (Yes, I did read his Important Note, but why not?) Status: 1: No 2: No (I think). I don't know if Google App Engine is making money for them, and Github doesn't host apps, and Amazon Web Services doesn't (only) host open-source web apps. 3: Hopefully. 4: Doubtful, but one can dream =) 5: No. 6: HN? Is Steve Yegge here? 7: Yes. I think it's valid to put the iphone's success in 2009 (rather than earlier) due to the large number of apps and growing number of competitors in that year. 8: Well, considering he's working there, I think he's being paid instead =) 9: Probably. 10: Yes, although it's not a tautology. (You could have asymmetric heavy tails which would make most programmers below or above the mean.)
- gstar 17y ago
  If you take prediction 1 as key-value stores (which I think is more-or-less where stevey was going) - he's spot on.
  - Quarrelsome 17y ago
    "surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011" Are you really sure about that? AFAIK the use case for key-value stores isn't one that a lot of people are going to suffer (seriously high-volume).
  - miloshh 17y ago
    I think there was a lot of excitement about XML databases around that time, because they would let you store more complex structures in the DB, not less complex (like key-value). Somehow XML did not take off, not sure why.
jimbokun 17y ago
#1 is kinda sorta like the NoSQL movement (hierarchical versus relational modeling, do away with much of the O-R impedance mismatch). #2 Github? #3 The evils of threads, and how to replace them with something else to use multi-cores, is very high on the list of blogged about programming topics. Several new languages have staked their claim to fame largely on how they handle concurrency. So, yes, this one was understated, if anything. #4 Not there yet, but might be on that trajectory if there is some "tipping point" of Java programmers en masse getting fed up with Java's limitations. There are certainly enough alternative JVM languages to choose from. #5 Does Clojure make the top 10? Certainly not in number of users, but maybe in most popular to blog about. #6 Facebook. #7 iPhone was released June, 2007, beating his prediction by a couple of years. #8 Maybe if you buy an Android phone from them? #9 Apple laptops are immensely popular, but the scale of this prediction was a little ridiculous. Between iPhone and iPod, it's possible that there are more people who own an Apple product than own a product from all those companies combined. #10 Now that's just insulting. Who's he calling average?
- revorad 17y ago
  #10 Now that's just insulting. Who's he calling average? The average programmer.
  - polynomial 17y ago
    As if that weren't bad enough, at least half of them are still below average.
    - nuclear_eclipse 17y ago
      Only if it's a standard distribution (eg bell curve). It's quite possible with a non-standard distribution to have much more than half above average as well. Now median on the other hand, by definition, separates the distribution in half... </pedantic>
      - plorkyeran 17y ago
fogus 17y ago
"Prediction #10: In five years' time, most programmers will still be average." In order to sleep through the night, I'll just assume that he's not talking about me.

intellectronica 17y ago

So basically he didn't get anything but #6 (facebook) and #10 (which is more of an insider joke than a prediction) right. Remember this next time you read Yegge's rants.

fishercs 17y ago
facebook was already out in 2004, and everyone was on myspace.
- intellectronica 17y ago
  Good point. That wasn't hard to predict.
randallsquared 17y ago
Remember this next time you read Yegge's rants. Well, even deep understanding doesn't imply the ability to predict, unless chance plays little role -- a stipulation which is manifestly not the case, here. Edit: grammar
- intellectronica 17y ago
  Deep understanding should discourage one from making predictions, though.
  - randallsquared 17y ago
    Depends on your goal. If your goal is to avoid making statements that are wrong, then sure. If your goal is to be interesting and say provocative things, maybe not so much. :)
intellectronica 17y ago
I'm surprised to see that I'm getting a negative response to this comment. Would someone care to explain what makes it so controversial?

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

gfunk911 17y ago

You guys seem to be saying he was wrong on most of them. I strongly disagree. Sure, he didn't nail every one exactly, because he's not psychic, but for all of them, he correctly saw the trend, and he's very in the ballpark. 1. This is happening, just not as quickly as he thought, and with JSON. (XML Databases) 2. If you actually read what he wrote, this is obviously happening. EC2, Github, Heroku. (Open Source Hosting) 3. Using processes instead of threads is absolutely rising in popularity. 4. Off on the timing, but we are in the middle of an explosion of other JVM languages. The JVM has clearly established itself as the best way to launch a new language. 5. Off on the timing, possibly off completely. Clojure is gaining in popularity, which ties in with #4. (Lisp in the Top 10) 6. Facebook. This one was easy. (Community Hangout) 7. He was actually late on this one. iPhone obviously. (Mobile Computing 5 Years Out) 8. Google Apps. (I'll Pay Google) 9. Wrong literally, but if you take out netbooks, which weren't around, Apple sells the large majority of $1000+ laptops, and they obviously sell a ton of iPhones, which are just small computing devices. (Apple Selling Laptops)

j_baker 17y ago
In fact, he was the first to point out that most of them were wrong. But he did get the general concept right in most cases.
qeorge 17y ago
Re #2, I don't think its fair to count EC2, Github, or Heroku, unless you're also counting any shared hosting that lets you run PHP. I think what Steve was referring to was people paying for hosted versions of specific pieces of open source software, e.g., a hosted version of SugarCRM, not the ability to run open source software in general. It was still prescient though, because we're starting to see that. For instance, you can do this with Azure + SugarCRM.
pvg 17y ago
He's still wrong on most of them, whether you strongly disagree or not. 1. This one is so mushy, it's wrong just because of it. Substituting your favourite representation format (JSON instead of XML) doesn't make it any better or really anything to do with databases. 2. It's happening if you think EC2, Github and Heroku are somehow comparable. Also which one of these is making 'a lot of money' as predicted? 3. Your response doesn't actually address the prediction. Also, Clojure, Erlang, blah blah. 4. Just hasn't happened. 5. See above. 6. And Twitter and 'a new internet community hangout will appear' in 5 years is the most solid bet you can make on the internet. 7. It happened to be 5 years out or under. Oh well. 8. Nobody, statistically, pays Google for anything. Other than adwords. 9. Straight out wrong. I think that easily qualifies for 'wrong on most of them'.

j_baker 17y ago

I think #10 is pretty much a truism (but still important to remember!).

antirez 17y ago

#1: XML DB has nothing to do with NoSQL. Even if there is some external similarity with document stores actually the main point of the author is that people don't want to perform conversions. This was not the reason NoSQL started at all and not our main problem with SQL in the latest years. #2: This has nothing to do with Github or hosting of source code. Here the author was referring to sell the service of running a web application for you, like a forum or a wiki, and so forth. something like vanilla forums or wordpress.org are doing indeed. IMHO this prediction was more or less totally wrong, as the latest five years showed us that web applications are a big business but companies will try to rewrite from scratch the product they are offering in order to take it closed source, to offer more in terms of usability, and probably even for scalability concerns. Actually the reverse happened, for instance Reddit instead to use a Digg clone wrote the code, and later released it as open source.

ZachPruckowski 17y ago

The important thing to remember when grading predictions is that most predictions are about trends. So the important thing isn't whether "The Year of MobilePhone Computing" was 2008 or 2009 or 2010, the important thing is that it was still a few years off from 2004. It's the same thing as the "Singularity" guy's predictions. When you're predicting things 6 months in advance, you should get graded on a lot harder of a curve than predicting things 6 years in advance or 16 years in advance.

sker 17y ago

I think he nailed it with prediction #7. Many of you are saying he was late because the iPhone was released in 2007. Well, the iPhone SDK wasn't released until 2008 and the industry didn't step up to the game until 2009 when a bunch of Android handsets started to come out. I do think he was wrong on most of the others, though.

presidentender 17y ago

I used to be a 'wizard' (player admin) for Yegge's GMUD, Wyvern (he mentions it occasionally in his newer world-facing blog; it can be found at www.cabochon.com). He doesn't just make predictions like this, he actually bets on them. For example, he bet that people would want to play a game with deep and intriguing gameplay regardless of the graphics. Then he bet that people would want to play it on a handheld device (specifically, he targeted the Sharp Zaurus, but the game is compatible with some other palmtops of the same era). I think he's right on the first count, but too early on the second (targeting the iPhone, for instance, would probably have been more successful). There are a number of other reasons the game didn't take off, but the point is that he's not an armchair pundit, shouting that we should all listen to him and take action based on his foresight. If anything, he's taking action, and just logging the predictions that prompted him.

brianwisti 17y ago
Wyvern on an iPhone. That's exactly what I want to see, and what the other games I've been playing don't quite match up to. It has a low demand on the graphics and network side of things, but has a rich and rewarding game play experience. For me, obviously. I haven't played that for a few years. I'm going to have to start again.
- presidentender 17y ago
  I don't know exactly what it was, but the game lost a lot of magic for me at some point. Now the aesthetic is totally different, and I just can't get back into it.

bioweek 17y ago

It sucks he didn't put a date on that post. Kind of an egregious oversite, right.

rudd 17y ago
Not sure if you're being sarcastic, but the date is right at the bottom of the post: "(Published Nov 10th, 2004)"