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My favaurite part: "We're in a bit of a different bubble this time, the exuberance now has a foundation" as measured by market size and sales potential, he says

by xiphias 11y ago

My favaurite part: "We're in a bit of a different bubble this time, the exuberance now has a foundation" as measured by market size and sales potential, he says. Sure, it's always different this time for a CEO who needs to keep hopes up for investors. Sales is crashing with the deflation that is coming. And also overvaluations are followed by undervaluations when the interest rates increase.

pistle 11y ago
"It's different this time." Said every time. Of course the details of the crashing waves are different, but the tide is the same every time.
- tomjen3 11y ago
  Yes it is said every time, until the last time when the rules really are different - one early summer when there really will be no more war in Europe, one cold november night when the Berlin Wall just opens, one fall when a scrappy little upstart in a colony forces the worlds biggest empire to leave, one december when Ireland was free, etc. Predictions about the future are hard.
- draw_down 11y ago
  Actually what people are constantly saying now is what you posted. It's to the point where if you suppose that everything is not an exact recurrence of the dot-com bust, you're seen as delusional. But everything can't be exactly the same as it was then.
AngrySkillzz 11y ago
In Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance," where he discusses bubble formation and deflation, he refers to it as "new era thinking;" the idea that even if the economics of the present seem crazy, it's totally going to work this time because we're in a new era. Things are different from what happened last time, really. The punchline is that basically every bubble that ever existed was characterized by new era thinking. Looking at it like a Bayesian, the presence of new era thinking is a high-confidence indicator that you're in a bubble.
matwood 11y ago
Some companies need to get washed out, but this is completely different than the .com bubble. It is not even on the same level. The 90s leading up to the crash were insane. If you could turn on a computer you could be hired as a programmer. Salaries, offices, VC money were completely off the charts for companies that had near zero revenue. Not just zero profits, but REVENUE. So while it is fun to think every downturn is going to ruin the world and make fun of people who thinks it is different, it really is different. It does not mean all these companies will survive, but that is how capitalism works. Companies have to die to free up resources and capital for the next idea.
- mitchty 11y ago
  Yep, there were people I knew that went from bartending, to "web programming" for a year then back to bartending. They got hired at ~100k/yr in the midwest to a company that didn't sell anything. This "bubble" is entirely different. It strikes me more as the vc bubble finally coming to the realization that not everything is worth investing in with rates as they will now be in the future.
  - ryanSrich 11y ago
    It's more of a "Does your company make money or have a clear path to making money" bubble. If the answer is no...

by xiphias 11y ago

pistle 11y ago

"It's different this time." Said every time. Of course the details of the crashing waves are different, but the tide is the same every time.

tomjen3 11y ago
Yes it is said every time, until the last time when the rules really are different - one early summer when there really will be no more war in Europe, one cold november night when the Berlin Wall just opens, one fall when a scrappy little upstart in a colony forces the worlds biggest empire to leave, one december when Ireland was free, etc. Predictions about the future are hard.
draw_down 11y ago
Actually what people are constantly saying now is what you posted. It's to the point where if you suppose that everything is not an exact recurrence of the dot-com bust, you're seen as delusional. But everything can't be exactly the same as it was then.

AngrySkillzz 11y ago

In Schiller's "Irrational Exuberance," where he discusses bubble formation and deflation, he refers to it as "new era thinking;" the idea that even if the economics of the present seem crazy, it's totally going to work this time because we're in a new era. Things are different from what happened last time, really. The punchline is that basically every bubble that ever existed was characterized by new era thinking. Looking at it like a Bayesian, the presence of new era thinking is a high-confidence indicator that you're in a bubble.

matwood 11y ago

Some companies need to get washed out, but this is completely different than the .com bubble. It is not even on the same level. The 90s leading up to the crash were insane. If you could turn on a computer you could be hired as a programmer. Salaries, offices, VC money were completely off the charts for companies that had near zero revenue. Not just zero profits, but REVENUE. So while it is fun to think every downturn is going to ruin the world and make fun of people who thinks it is different, it really is different. It does not mean all these companies will survive, but that is how capitalism works. Companies have to die to free up resources and capital for the next idea.

mitchty 11y ago
Yep, there were people I knew that went from bartending, to "web programming" for a year then back to bartending. They got hired at ~100k/yr in the midwest to a company that didn't sell anything. This "bubble" is entirely different. It strikes me more as the vc bubble finally coming to the realization that not everything is worth investing in with rates as they will now be in the future.
- ryanSrich 11y ago
  It's more of a "Does your company make money or have a clear path to making money" bubble. If the answer is no...