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> I disagree. Humans tend to create new market segments in response to this problem. You can disagree if you like, but you're relying on the past to make your

> I disagree. Humans tend to create new market segments in response to this problem. You can disagree if you like, but you're relying on the past to make your presumption that humans will just create more markets; the future of automation isn't like the past, future automation will include AI and is already doing so. AI changes the game, the future is not like the past, humans won't just do something else. Labor based economies must end at some point, there simply won't be enough demand for labor to keep an economy going. > Do you seriously think automation means less human labor is needed? If you don't, you're not paying attention to the world. > Automation means less labor is needed to produce certain kinds of goods. We can always find things for people to do. Absolutely wrong; the automation that is coming will leave little for people to do as it'll always be cheaper to have a machine do it and an intelligent machine will be able to do anything a human can. All goods, all services, not just "certain kinds" will be done by machines; your doctor will be a machine, your housekeeper, masseuse, waitress, all of them, robots. The idea that there's always going to be some way to sell your own labor is antiquated and wrong; basic income is meant as a solution to the collapse of labor markets that is coming from our continued increases in production via automation, and it is coming, and no, there won't be some other job you can do... machines will do all the jobs. Humans will leisure or find other means to feel productive but goods and services will not be distributed by means of a labor based economy. The labor based economies of the world are on their deathbeds; we're currently calling this structural unemployment due to globalization, it's all the same problem, the future isn't based on human labor or labor based economies.

vinceguidry 11y ago
Haha. Well, let's cross that bridge when we get there.
- gnaritas 11y ago
  That way lies pain, we have to cross that bridge as we get there which we currently are already on; hence the structural unemployment. Self driving cars are going to cause mass unemployment, we're already getting there.
  - vinceguidry 11y ago
    I'll believe it when I see it.
    - gnaritas 11y ago
      Basic income is a hot topic because forward thinking people who see what's going on in the world right now already see it. You say lets cross that bridge when we get there; that's the point, we're there, you just aren't looking very hard.
      - vinceguidry 11y ago
        It's a hot topic on HN and in a few policy circles. In the grand scheme of things, it's a really small issue, far behind, say, gun control or national security.
        gnaritas 11y ago
        The topic of this thread is that a "country" is experimenting with it, that's more than a little interest. It's a small issue in America, for now, for sure; that will change as unemployment creeps up with every new technology hitting the market, cars will start it.
        vinceguidry 11y ago
        There are 196 countries in the world, give or take a few. The US is at the very tip of economic advancement of all 196. That we would care so much about one's experiments is really quite silly. To make a comparison, Obama cares a little bit about what strategy Apple is taking, but he's got much bigger things on his plate.
        analyst74 11y ago
        Plenty of people worry about not being able to find a job, that's why there is so much talk about unemployment, and why politicians always come up with programs and policies to stimulate job growth. It's even more common if you count people who hate their jobs. Whether we've found a solution to that problem, is up to debate. But the problem of allowing everyone to have basic security is real.
Grishnakh 11y ago
This is extremely optimistic. We don't have AI that advanced, or evidence that AI will get that advanced any time soon. People joke all the time about the crazy stuff that Siri comes up with. What IS coming soon is automation of mindless, lower-level jobs. Waiting tables is a good example here: humans do a terrible job of it, and add 10-20% to your food bill in exchange for screwing up your order. Having a tablet computer on the table for you to place your own order would be better, and some restaurants already do this (like Panera) to some degree. Factory work is another: today's factories are filled with automation, and robots produce better-quality products than humans because they don't make mistakes. Taxi driving is another: we're working on automated cars, so pretty soon "Johnny Cab" will be a real thing, and all those cab drivers will be out of a job. This will extend to truck drivers pretty quickly, probably faster than cabs actually. Fast food cooking is another: McD's already has the job of cooking a Big Mac down to something that someone with almost no training can pick up right away because their machines do most of it, they just have to follow some pictorial directions. People have Roombas to clean their floors. So what happens when you automate all the simple jobs that don't require an education? Now you have a large portion of the population that's unemployed, and they're really not smart enough to get an education and get a higher-level job, or there's not enough higher-level jobs to go around for them if they are. It's going to be a long time before engineers, for instance, are replaced by robots (and maybe never), but you don't need smart people to cut grass and rake leaves, and jobs like that are going to go away before long.
- gnaritas 11y ago
  > This is extremely optimistic. It's inevitable. > We don't have AI that advanced Correct. > or evidence that AI will get that advanced any time soon. That's incorrect. The trend is obvious, watson can already out diagnose a doctor. AI doesn't have to work like a human to out do a human just as planes don't have to flap their wings. > What IS coming soon is automation of mindless, lower-level jobs. That is coming, but as things like Watson show, it won't be limited to mindless lower level jobs. All but the more pure intellectual pursuits will gone in very short order. Most jobs, even white collar ones, don't take that much thinking. > It's going to be a long time before engineers, for instance, are replaced by robots It's not going to be long at all before the bulk of humanity is replaced by robots; that humans are still useful in the highest levels of intellectual fields is for all purposes irrelevant, the labor based economy will crumble far before unemployment reaches 50%. If robots put the lower half of society out of work, it's game over for our current economic system regardless of whether we have strong enough AI to replace engineers.

vinceguidry 11y ago

Haha. Well, let's cross that bridge when we get there.

gnaritas 11y ago
That way lies pain, we have to cross that bridge as we get there which we currently are already on; hence the structural unemployment. Self driving cars are going to cause mass unemployment, we're already getting there.
- vinceguidry 11y ago
  I'll believe it when I see it.
  - gnaritas 11y ago
    Basic income is a hot topic because forward thinking people who see what's going on in the world right now already see it. You say lets cross that bridge when we get there; that's the point, we're there, you just aren't looking very hard.
    - vinceguidry 11y ago
      It's a hot topic on HN and in a few policy circles. In the grand scheme of things, it's a really small issue, far behind, say, gun control or national security.
      - gnaritas 11y ago
        The topic of this thread is that a "country" is experimenting with it, that's more than a little interest. It's a small issue in America, for now, for sure; that will change as unemployment creeps up with every new technology hitting the market, cars will start it.
        vinceguidry 11y ago
        There are 196 countries in the world, give or take a few. The US is at the very tip of economic advancement of all 196. That we would care so much about one's experiments is really quite silly. To make a comparison, Obama cares a little bit about what strategy Apple is taking, but he's got much bigger things on his plate.
      - analyst74 11y ago
        Plenty of people worry about not being able to find a job, that's why there is so much talk about unemployment, and why politicians always come up with programs and policies to stimulate job growth. It's even more common if you count people who hate their jobs. Whether we've found a solution to that problem, is up to debate. But the problem of allowing everyone to have basic security is real.

Grishnakh 11y ago

This is extremely optimistic. We don't have AI that advanced, or evidence that AI will get that advanced any time soon. People joke all the time about the crazy stuff that Siri comes up with. What IS coming soon is automation of mindless, lower-level jobs. Waiting tables is a good example here: humans do a terrible job of it, and add 10-20% to your food bill in exchange for screwing up your order. Having a tablet computer on the table for you to place your own order would be better, and some restaurants already do this (like Panera) to some degree. Factory work is another: today's factories are filled with automation, and robots produce better-quality products than humans because they don't make mistakes. Taxi driving is another: we're working on automated cars, so pretty soon "Johnny Cab" will be a real thing, and all those cab drivers will be out of a job. This will extend to truck drivers pretty quickly, probably faster than cabs actually. Fast food cooking is another: McD's already has the job of cooking a Big Mac down to something that someone with almost no training can pick up right away because their machines do most of it, they just have to follow some pictorial directions. People have Roombas to clean their floors. So what happens when you automate all the simple jobs that don't require an education? Now you have a large portion of the population that's unemployed, and they're really not smart enough to get an education and get a higher-level job, or there's not enough higher-level jobs to go around for them if they are. It's going to be a long time before engineers, for instance, are replaced by robots (and maybe never), but you don't need smart people to cut grass and rake leaves, and jobs like that are going to go away before long.

gnaritas 11y ago
> This is extremely optimistic. It's inevitable. > We don't have AI that advanced Correct. > or evidence that AI will get that advanced any time soon. That's incorrect. The trend is obvious, watson can already out diagnose a doctor. AI doesn't have to work like a human to out do a human just as planes don't have to flap their wings. > What IS coming soon is automation of mindless, lower-level jobs. That is coming, but as things like Watson show, it won't be limited to mindless lower level jobs. All but the more pure intellectual pursuits will gone in very short order. Most jobs, even white collar ones, don't take that much thinking. > It's going to be a long time before engineers, for instance, are replaced by robots It's not going to be long at all before the bulk of humanity is replaced by robots; that humans are still useful in the highest levels of intellectual fields is for all purposes irrelevant, the labor based economy will crumble far before unemployment reaches 50%. If robots put the lower half of society out of work, it's game over for our current economic system regardless of whether we have strong enough AI to replace engineers.