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Any plans to add different probability distributions? I do this kind of analysis by hand for things like project timelines and cost estimates, but I model each

by cpitman 11y ago

Any plans to add different probability distributions? I do this kind of analysis by hand for things like project timelines and cost estimates, but I model each variable with a double triangular distribution (http://www.mhnederlof.nl/doubletriangular.html http://www.mhnederlof.nl/doubletriangular.html). You provide a best case, worst case, and then the most likely case. The distribution approximates the long tails on many kinds of distributions.

ozgooen 11y ago
Definitely. I haven't yet had a request to do a double triangular distribution, that looks really interesting. It will be a bit of a challenge to make it intuitive, but I'm sure I'll figure out something. Just so you know, right now there is a second distribution, uniform. You can access it by clicking the 'normal' icon in a normal distribution, where a short list is shown below.
- masonium 11y ago
  I just made an issue on github, but the uniform distribution looks wonky at the right endpoint.
  - ozgooen 11y ago
    Much of that is because the react histogram library I used. There are a bunch of issues with it. I definitely intend to replace it with something much better. If any of you recommend tools or libraries for that, I'd be very appreciative.
lotyrin 11y ago
+1 for more distribution shapes, specifically power law, combinations of power and normal (Which you might want to consider for your soft-attack-long-tail variables over triangular, if the edge between triangles causes you artifacts), and distributions based on empirical collections.
AstroJetson 11y ago
I do the same thing as cpitman, try to figure project times and costs using the same best, worst, most likely. It would be nice to have it automated so when the PHB looks at the numbers they just don't pick the "best case" because we have the "best team". 50 nodes would be plenty, I can roll up tasks into a bigger task set.
- jacques_chester 11y ago
  I worked on a while for a product to do this. It foundered on the stony shores of my unfamiliarity with angular, which was the sexy new thing at the time.

by cpitman 11y ago

ozgooen 11y ago

Definitely. I haven't yet had a request to do a double triangular distribution, that looks really interesting. It will be a bit of a challenge to make it intuitive, but I'm sure I'll figure out something. Just so you know, right now there is a second distribution, uniform. You can access it by clicking the 'normal' icon in a normal distribution, where a short list is shown below.

masonium 11y ago
I just made an issue on github, but the uniform distribution looks wonky at the right endpoint.
- ozgooen 11y ago
  Much of that is because the react histogram library I used. There are a bunch of issues with it. I definitely intend to replace it with something much better. If any of you recommend tools or libraries for that, I'd be very appreciative.

lotyrin 11y ago

+1 for more distribution shapes, specifically power law, combinations of power and normal (Which you might want to consider for your soft-attack-long-tail variables over triangular, if the edge between triangles causes you artifacts), and distributions based on empirical collections.

AstroJetson 11y ago

I do the same thing as cpitman, try to figure project times and costs using the same best, worst, most likely. It would be nice to have it automated so when the PHB looks at the numbers they just don't pick the "best case" because we have the "best team". 50 nodes would be plenty, I can roll up tasks into a bigger task set.

jacques_chester 11y ago
I worked on a while for a product to do this. It foundered on the stony shores of my unfamiliarity with angular, which was the sexy new thing at the time.