7 ms·

Ford and Google Move Forward Together Towards Consumer Self-Driving Cars

38 points by Oxydepth 11y ago

bostonpete 11y ago
As someone who commutes 35 miles twice a day, I can't wait to have a self-driving car. But I don't see how a car with no steering wheel is viable given today's infrastructure. What happens if I'm in a snowstorm and the lame markings are occluded? What happens if I need to drive down a dirt road or driveway? It seems like most drivers will need some way to take over from time to time...
- Zigurd 11y ago
  Your smartphone.
  - ocdtrekkie 11y ago
    Yes, let's have people control their car the same way they fly off the track on racing games. :)
    - Zigurd 11y ago
      You may have to find a teenager to drive for you. For safety.
- increment_i 11y ago
  As a commuting Canadian I'm interested in this being addressed as well, as I'm sure millions of others are. All the self driving lab work seems to be taking place in California. If I value my life, shouldn't I want to buy a self driving car that was designed in Michigan or Wisconsin? Who can even answer that question right now? Perhaps its a matter for self driving car v2.0 to address?
  - ocdtrekkie 11y ago
    Honestly, my prevailing theory is that this highlights how much further we really are from practical self-driving cars than Google's marketing department wants us to think. I think the self-driving car project needs to always sound 'a little over a year away' as good PR for Google, though they know it's much further from being truly serviceable.
    - pixelcloud 11y ago
      A year away in California and other states with good weather. I have a suspicion we will see some amazing demos of self driving cars in the snow and rain, once they are good at it. It's brought up every time we talk about being these cars to consumers, if Google or whoever have truly mastered these situations I think they would like people to know.
  - whackedspinach 11y ago
    Researchers are working on this in Michigan. The University of Michigan has a new MCity test facility[0], and I know one of the projects they are working on is how the cars handle snow. They basically still do LIDAR and match the z-plane (height of objects nearby) to localize the car when road markings are hard to see. Still lots of work to do though! [0]: http://www.mtc.umich.edu/test-facility http://www.mtc.umich.edu/test-facility
- bobajeff 11y ago
  I don't think they can legally sell a car without a steering wheel. If they manage to make self driving cars legal at all they'll require someone in the driver seat.
  - nommm-nommm 11y ago
    Self driving cars are already legal many places. Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan all have laws on the books that specifically address self driving cars. Nevada issues special license plates for them.
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      California DMV requires a steering wheel and pedals though; recent ruling (hinder's Google's tiny self driving car).
      - nommm-nommm 11y ago
        I never said they didn't, I was replying to "If they manage to make self driving cars legal at all." They are already legal and they are coming, this isn't a far out concept. Semi self driving (requiring a driver to take over if needed) consumer cars probably will be first then fully automated ones a few years later.
- modeless 11y ago
  In the descriptions I've seen, the Google car doesn't rely on the lane markings in normal driving. The lanes are pre-mapped and it can use any mapped landmark (including but not limited to the lane markings) to determine its position relative to the lanes. The Google car also does not drive in snow AFAIK. Maybe that's bad for you but it's not a deal breaker for the first deployment of self driving cars as there are plenty of places where it never snows.
  - JoshTriplett 11y ago
    > The lanes are pre-mapped Should be interesting to see how it handles detours and temporary road re-routes. How would a self-driving car handle a two-lane two-way double-yellow-line road with one lane closed and a flagger alternating both directions of traffic through the same lane?
    - modeless 11y ago
      I think it probably can read lane markings, as well as construction signs, flaggers, etc. I know it've seen videos of it detecting hand signals given by bicyclists. It just doesn't make sense to rely on lane markings during normal driving because lane markings are often or missing or obscured or just plain wrong.
      - knughit 11y ago
        Ignoring lanes and driving using an old map seems a great way to plow into oncoming traffic.
        modeless 11y ago
        So does blindly following lane markings that were incompletely erased and are now incorrect. Clearly the Google car does not do either of these things, because if it did then it would certainly have crashed many times over by now.
- joe_the_user 11y ago
  One possibility is that the cars would operate like drones. There would be a trained remote human operator who would take over if something went wrong. As far as driving some inaccessible location, I'd guess the cars would be more or less like personal trams. Just people who take public transit now, if you needed to go down a dirt road, you'd walk or take a folding bicycle.
- derefr 11y ago
  I've always assumed the current generation of auto-drive AI is going to be released, but rated for perfect-visibility climates only. This means it'll be fine for vehicles like self-driving 18-wheelers travelling back and forth through the Nevada desert; but the only place you'll be likely to see it in passenger vehicles is in the local taxi/car-sharing services (i.e. cars that never leave their metropolitan area) of cities in extremely temperate regions. So they'll get them in California, and Texas, but not anywhere northern-enough for snow or eastern-enough for monsoons.
  - ngoel36 11y ago
    If Google can map most of the modern world with Street View, why can't they equip those same roads with sensors (that don't need to be visible) for their self-driving cars? Or better yet, given they have HD satellite imagery, will they just know exactly where the car is on the road (to the lane) at all times?
    - csours 11y ago
      This is referred to as SLAM - Simultaneous Localization and Mapping - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simultaneous_localization_and_mapping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simultaneous_localization_and_...
    - bmer 11y ago
      Asphalt surfaces, in general, aren't long-lived and require regular maintenance -- likely, those sensors would be destroyed during maintenance (which almost always involves pouring molten asphalt). This means that Google would have probably have to regularly re-install the sensors. Not sure if it's possible to do that easily, but it might be. How real-time is their HD satellite imagery?
      - ori_b 11y ago
        Do they need to be sensors? I figure something like a hefty distinctive pattern of nails would be good enough to pick up with magnets. Cheap, easy to plonk down in the middle of a lane as you're pouring asphalt, if there's a pattern it's relatively hard to confuse with debris.
throwaway287391 11y ago
Smart of Ford to partner with Google on this IMO. Besides Tesla who seem to know what they're doing, I find it pretty strange that most(?) other auto companies seem to be basically going it alone on autonomous driving with an (understandable) complete lack of know-how when it comes to software (think, e.g., Toyota with its 80K or however many global variables). I was listening to a radio program (KQED's Forum [1]) where they discussed the California DMV's new proposed regulations for self-driving cars, and from the point of view of someone who isn't insanely arrogant about humans' ability to safely operate cars, they seem quite draconian and luddite-ish. Google made a statement about these proposed regulations that echoed my feelings, but Audi was on the program defending the regulations and claiming anything approaching fully autonomous driving was a couple of decades away. This seems to indicate that they are at least a decade behind Google who claim they're already there or will be within ~5 years, so it sort of blows my mind that they wouldn't be trying hard to partner with them or another firm (perhaps Uber?) that actually understands software (and particularly AI). [1] http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201512180900 http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201512180900
- HelloMcFly 11y ago
  Audi may not think that autonomous vehicles are technologically decades away; rather, they may be trying to support that narrative so others do hold the belief, and subsequently sway legislators and the public into an over-cautious position.
  - throwaway287391 11y ago
    Exactly -- it sounded to me like they think fully autonomous vehicles are decades away from being created at Audi, and hence would support legislation that prevents them from getting scooped by other companies with the tech chops to make it happen decades earlier.
    - HelloMcFly 11y ago
      What I'm saying is that even if they truly believe they can to those vehicles at roughly the same time (which I think they might), I don't think they would want to. Life's good for Audi, so any sea change (even if they are a part of it) carries more risk than reward.
Animats 11y ago
This makes sense. GM is partnered with CMU for self-driving technology. VW, BMW, and Mercedes have in-house efforts. Ford has had an in-house effort, but needs better technology. Google doesn't want to build and operate auto plants; the margins are low and their stock would decline. Chrysler's head of engineering once said "We will have steer by wire and brake by wire over my dead body".
- curiouscat321 11y ago
  It's interesting that you put GM's partnership with CMU at the same level as Ford and Google. I don't think any major automaker has an in house effort anywhere close to Google. Most of them rely on suppliers like Bosch for their driverless car tech. I think this shows that Ford is the only automaker that currently understands the shifts that the industry is about to undergo. None of the automakers or their suppliers can act like a software company in comparison to Google.
  - csours 11y ago
    Disclosure: I work at GM; these are my opinions only; I don't work on SDCs, just very interested in them. I don't think it's the tech (as such) that matters so much. I think the attitude, approach, and discussion matter much more. For instance: Google has said, for now, we can't have drivers in the loop and call it a self-driving car (see Tesla etc videos[1]). That makes a lot of sense, but its also very limiting. Airbus et al have not figured this one out (Air France 447[2]) - Perhaps automotive scale will provide more effective tools for managing attention and skill. There are so many difficult non-technical discussions to overcome in this market - liability, user tracking (location history and habits), information leakage, failure modes (should I honk and flash lights if my human doesn't take control), aggressiveness settings (if the car is not going fast enough, the user will take control back), and many more, I'm sure. Technical issues are going to be easy compared to the human issues. I think Google is addressing this by having an explicitly limited approach for now. 1. http://www.cnet.com/news/this-is-the-stupidest-misuse-of-teslas-autopilot-yet/ http://www.cnet.com/news/this-is-the-stupidest-misuse-of-tes... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447 - Junior pilot did not understand that he was in a stall, possibly due to very low actual controlled flying time.
la6470 11y ago
Why does google not open source their self driving car software?
- wcummings 11y ago
  Then they couldn't use it to sell you shit.
  - knughit 11y ago
    Google open sourced TensorFlow
ForestBiker 11y ago
As an employee of another car company all I can say is: Damn! Similiar to Tesla, Apple and Google are quite far away from the degree of industrialisiation the automotive industrie has today. Without this you can't build millions of cars cost effectivly. Also, cars are immensely complex in all the small things that need to be engineered deligently. So, that move makes greatest sense.
Oxydepth 11y ago
Guys, this will be coming sooner than we think! I know a lot of other schools and companies are doing research towards this. I shared this one because I feel like it's most likely to happen the soonest.
theseok 11y ago
This is legit.

38 points by Oxydepth 11y ago

As someone who commutes 35 miles twice a day, I can't wait to have a self-driving car. But I don't see how a car with no steering wheel is viable given today's infrastructure. What happens if I'm in a snowstorm and the lame markings are occluded? What happens if I need to drive down a dirt road or driveway? It seems like most drivers will need some way to take over from time to time...

Zigurd 11y ago
Your smartphone.
- ocdtrekkie 11y ago
  Yes, let's have people control their car the same way they fly off the track on racing games. :)
  - Zigurd 11y ago
    You may have to find a teenager to drive for you. For safety.
increment_i 11y ago
As a commuting Canadian I'm interested in this being addressed as well, as I'm sure millions of others are. All the self driving lab work seems to be taking place in California. If I value my life, shouldn't I want to buy a self driving car that was designed in Michigan or Wisconsin? Who can even answer that question right now? Perhaps its a matter for self driving car v2.0 to address?
- ocdtrekkie 11y ago
  Honestly, my prevailing theory is that this highlights how much further we really are from practical self-driving cars than Google's marketing department wants us to think. I think the self-driving car project needs to always sound 'a little over a year away' as good PR for Google, though they know it's much further from being truly serviceable.
  - pixelcloud 11y ago
    A year away in California and other states with good weather. I have a suspicion we will see some amazing demos of self driving cars in the snow and rain, once they are good at it. It's brought up every time we talk about being these cars to consumers, if Google or whoever have truly mastered these situations I think they would like people to know.
- whackedspinach 11y ago
  Researchers are working on this in Michigan. The University of Michigan has a new MCity test facility[0], and I know one of the projects they are working on is how the cars handle snow. They basically still do LIDAR and match the z-plane (height of objects nearby) to localize the car when road markings are hard to see. Still lots of work to do though! [0]: http://www.mtc.umich.edu/test-facility http://www.mtc.umich.edu/test-facility
bobajeff 11y ago
I don't think they can legally sell a car without a steering wheel. If they manage to make self driving cars legal at all they'll require someone in the driver seat.
- nommm-nommm 11y ago
  Self driving cars are already legal many places. Nevada, Florida, California, and Michigan all have laws on the books that specifically address self driving cars. Nevada issues special license plates for them.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    California DMV requires a steering wheel and pedals though; recent ruling (hinder's Google's tiny self driving car).
    - nommm-nommm 11y ago
      I never said they didn't, I was replying to "If they manage to make self driving cars legal at all." They are already legal and they are coming, this isn't a far out concept. Semi self driving (requiring a driver to take over if needed) consumer cars probably will be first then fully automated ones a few years later.
modeless 11y ago
In the descriptions I've seen, the Google car doesn't rely on the lane markings in normal driving. The lanes are pre-mapped and it can use any mapped landmark (including but not limited to the lane markings) to determine its position relative to the lanes. The Google car also does not drive in snow AFAIK. Maybe that's bad for you but it's not a deal breaker for the first deployment of self driving cars as there are plenty of places where it never snows.
- JoshTriplett 11y ago
  > The lanes are pre-mapped Should be interesting to see how it handles detours and temporary road re-routes. How would a self-driving car handle a two-lane two-way double-yellow-line road with one lane closed and a flagger alternating both directions of traffic through the same lane?
  - modeless 11y ago
    I think it probably can read lane markings, as well as construction signs, flaggers, etc. I know it've seen videos of it detecting hand signals given by bicyclists. It just doesn't make sense to rely on lane markings during normal driving because lane markings are often or missing or obscured or just plain wrong.
    - knughit 11y ago
      Ignoring lanes and driving using an old map seems a great way to plow into oncoming traffic.
      - modeless 11y ago
        So does blindly following lane markings that were incompletely erased and are now incorrect. Clearly the Google car does not do either of these things, because if it did then it would certainly have crashed many times over by now.
joe_the_user 11y ago
One possibility is that the cars would operate like drones. There would be a trained remote human operator who would take over if something went wrong. As far as driving some inaccessible location, I'd guess the cars would be more or less like personal trams. Just people who take public transit now, if you needed to go down a dirt road, you'd walk or take a folding bicycle.
derefr 11y ago
I've always assumed the current generation of auto-drive AI is going to be released, but rated for perfect-visibility climates only. This means it'll be fine for vehicles like self-driving 18-wheelers travelling back and forth through the Nevada desert; but the only place you'll be likely to see it in passenger vehicles is in the local taxi/car-sharing services (i.e. cars that never leave their metropolitan area) of cities in extremely temperate regions. So they'll get them in California, and Texas, but not anywhere northern-enough for snow or eastern-enough for monsoons.
- ngoel36 11y ago
  If Google can map most of the modern world with Street View, why can't they equip those same roads with sensors (that don't need to be visible) for their self-driving cars? Or better yet, given they have HD satellite imagery, will they just know exactly where the car is on the road (to the lane) at all times?
  - csours 11y ago
    This is referred to as SLAM - Simultaneous Localization and Mapping - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simultaneous_localization_and_mapping https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simultaneous_localization_and_...
  - bmer 11y ago
    Asphalt surfaces, in general, aren't long-lived and require regular maintenance -- likely, those sensors would be destroyed during maintenance (which almost always involves pouring molten asphalt). This means that Google would have probably have to regularly re-install the sensors. Not sure if it's possible to do that easily, but it might be. How real-time is their HD satellite imagery?
    - ori_b 11y ago
      Do they need to be sensors? I figure something like a hefty distinctive pattern of nails would be good enough to pick up with magnets. Cheap, easy to plonk down in the middle of a lane as you're pouring asphalt, if there's a pattern it's relatively hard to confuse with debris.

throwaway287391 11y ago

Smart of Ford to partner with Google on this IMO. Besides Tesla who seem to know what they're doing, I find it pretty strange that most(?) other auto companies seem to be basically going it alone on autonomous driving with an (understandable) complete lack of know-how when it comes to software (think, e.g., Toyota with its 80K or however many global variables). I was listening to a radio program (KQED's Forum [1]) where they discussed the California DMV's new proposed regulations for self-driving cars, and from the point of view of someone who isn't insanely arrogant about humans' ability to safely operate cars, they seem quite draconian and luddite-ish. Google made a statement about these proposed regulations that echoed my feelings, but Audi was on the program defending the regulations and claiming anything approaching fully autonomous driving was a couple of decades away. This seems to indicate that they are at least a decade behind Google who claim they're already there or will be within ~5 years, so it sort of blows my mind that they wouldn't be trying hard to partner with them or another firm (perhaps Uber?) that actually understands software (and particularly AI). [1] http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201512180900 http://www.kqed.org/a/forum/R201512180900

HelloMcFly 11y ago
Audi may not think that autonomous vehicles are technologically decades away; rather, they may be trying to support that narrative so others do hold the belief, and subsequently sway legislators and the public into an over-cautious position.
- throwaway287391 11y ago
  Exactly -- it sounded to me like they think fully autonomous vehicles are decades away from being created at Audi, and hence would support legislation that prevents them from getting scooped by other companies with the tech chops to make it happen decades earlier.
  - HelloMcFly 11y ago
    What I'm saying is that even if they truly believe they can to those vehicles at roughly the same time (which I think they might), I don't think they would want to. Life's good for Audi, so any sea change (even if they are a part of it) carries more risk than reward.

Animats 11y ago

This makes sense. GM is partnered with CMU for self-driving technology. VW, BMW, and Mercedes have in-house efforts. Ford has had an in-house effort, but needs better technology. Google doesn't want to build and operate auto plants; the margins are low and their stock would decline. Chrysler's head of engineering once said "We will have steer by wire and brake by wire over my dead body".

curiouscat321 11y ago
It's interesting that you put GM's partnership with CMU at the same level as Ford and Google. I don't think any major automaker has an in house effort anywhere close to Google. Most of them rely on suppliers like Bosch for their driverless car tech. I think this shows that Ford is the only automaker that currently understands the shifts that the industry is about to undergo. None of the automakers or their suppliers can act like a software company in comparison to Google.
- csours 11y ago
  Disclosure: I work at GM; these are my opinions only; I don't work on SDCs, just very interested in them. I don't think it's the tech (as such) that matters so much. I think the attitude, approach, and discussion matter much more. For instance: Google has said, for now, we can't have drivers in the loop and call it a self-driving car (see Tesla etc videos[1]). That makes a lot of sense, but its also very limiting. Airbus et al have not figured this one out (Air France 447[2]) - Perhaps automotive scale will provide more effective tools for managing attention and skill. There are so many difficult non-technical discussions to overcome in this market - liability, user tracking (location history and habits), information leakage, failure modes (should I honk and flash lights if my human doesn't take control), aggressiveness settings (if the car is not going fast enough, the user will take control back), and many more, I'm sure. Technical issues are going to be easy compared to the human issues. I think Google is addressing this by having an explicitly limited approach for now. 1. http://www.cnet.com/news/this-is-the-stupidest-misuse-of-teslas-autopilot-yet/ http://www.cnet.com/news/this-is-the-stupidest-misuse-of-tes... 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_Flight_447 - Junior pilot did not understand that he was in a stall, possibly due to very low actual controlled flying time.

la6470 11y ago

Why does google not open source their self driving car software?

wcummings 11y ago
Then they couldn't use it to sell you shit.
- knughit 11y ago
  Google open sourced TensorFlow

ForestBiker 11y ago

As an employee of another car company all I can say is: Damn! Similiar to Tesla, Apple and Google are quite far away from the degree of industrialisiation the automotive industrie has today. Without this you can't build millions of cars cost effectivly. Also, cars are immensely complex in all the small things that need to be engineered deligently. So, that move makes greatest sense.

Oxydepth 11y ago

Guys, this will be coming sooner than we think! I know a lot of other schools and companies are doing research towards this. I shared this one because I feel like it's most likely to happen the soonest.

theseok 11y ago

This is legit.