4 ms·

2030? I would say 2025 or even earlier, and not just Law Firms. If you have a white color job, AI is coming for it, and fast!

by x0054 11y ago

colechristensen 11y ago
AI is just another abstraction, another tool to increase the power of the individual. A simple lever allows one person to do the work of many, human technological development is all about making fancier levers (and people bitching about how the next one will end society)
chii 11y ago
hah, apropo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU
rtehfm 11y ago
Similarly to how the industrial revolution 'disrupted' manual labor/blue collar jobs.
dinkumthinkum 11y ago
I hope your joking or this sarcasm. If not, I think you should really read the latest journals and conference proceedings to see if you still think that ...
- tluyben2 11y ago
  As others said already; you only need more efficiency, not full AGI to do that. And that simply is already happening.
  - dinkumthinkum 11y ago
    They can say but that it still isn't true. Read the journals. Many of these professions which are supposed to disappear cannot actually be "made to disappear" because of a slightly better version of a primitive algorithm. It seems pretty obvious if you just stop and think about what would actually need to happen. Autonomous vehicles, fine. If you ignore all the things that currently make transportation complicated, it's a fairly simple problem. I mean hell in the 1800s, they just put the vehicles on tracks with an engine and they were done. But most "white collar job" roles, if you get past cynical jokes, are actually well beyond the state of the art of AI research. I mean, I love science fiction; I'm a big fan. But I'm also like a realist ...
    - tluyben2 11y ago
      I do not think they will disappear any time soon but I believe you need less people per case. So maybe there will be more cases and thus still the same amount or more lawyers required but one lawyer being able to do more cases assisted by some form of AI. And yes, most complete jobs can not (yet) be taken over but let's not forget the financials; if you can replace someone costing $40k per year by a less efficient service costing $10/mo then people will do it even if it does not fully replace the person. There are a lot of factors in that but for instance my accountant fired most of his staff when the SAAS package he uses got efficient enough; his right hand and him have to work slightly harder but he saves a very significant amount of money.

2030? I would say 2025 or even earlier, and not just Law Firms. If you have a white color job, AI is coming for it, and fast!

by x0054 11y ago

2030? I would say 2025 or even earlier, and not just Law Firms. If you have a white color job, AI is coming for it, and fast!

colechristensen 11y ago

AI is just another abstraction, another tool to increase the power of the individual. A simple lever allows one person to do the work of many, human technological development is all about making fancier levers (and people bitching about how the next one will end society)

chii 11y ago

hah, apropo video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

rtehfm 11y ago

Similarly to how the industrial revolution 'disrupted' manual labor/blue collar jobs.

dinkumthinkum 11y ago

I hope your joking or this sarcasm. If not, I think you should really read the latest journals and conference proceedings to see if you still think that ...

tluyben2 11y ago
As others said already; you only need more efficiency, not full AGI to do that. And that simply is already happening.
- dinkumthinkum 11y ago
  They can say but that it still isn't true. Read the journals. Many of these professions which are supposed to disappear cannot actually be "made to disappear" because of a slightly better version of a primitive algorithm. It seems pretty obvious if you just stop and think about what would actually need to happen. Autonomous vehicles, fine. If you ignore all the things that currently make transportation complicated, it's a fairly simple problem. I mean hell in the 1800s, they just put the vehicles on tracks with an engine and they were done. But most "white collar job" roles, if you get past cynical jokes, are actually well beyond the state of the art of AI research. I mean, I love science fiction; I'm a big fan. But I'm also like a realist ...
  - tluyben2 11y ago
    I do not think they will disappear any time soon but I believe you need less people per case. So maybe there will be more cases and thus still the same amount or more lawyers required but one lawyer being able to do more cases assisted by some form of AI. And yes, most complete jobs can not (yet) be taken over but let's not forget the financials; if you can replace someone costing $40k per year by a less efficient service costing $10/mo then people will do it even if it does not fully replace the person. There are a lot of factors in that but for instance my accountant fired most of his staff when the SAAS package he uses got efficient enough; his right hand and him have to work slightly harder but he saves a very significant amount of money.