6 ms·

Think Like a Statistician – Without the Math

118 points by ric3rcar 11y ago

danso 11y ago
> This should go without saying, but approach data as objectively as possible. I'm not saying you shouldn't have a hunch about what you're looking for, but don't let your preconceived ideas influence the results. Because if you go to length looking for some specific pattern, you're probably going to find it. It'll just be at the sacrifice of accurate results. I couldn't say it better myself. I admit to loathing when people think that they can finally prove whatever thing they've been long advocating for, now that they have the data that proves it. Besides the huge issue of thinking that data -- by nature of being data, or something -- inherently contains more truth than just someone literally rambling into a spreadsheet...if the dataset is indeed worthwhile, and by that, I mean deep...then whatever foundational beliefs you think were true needs to be re-evaluated in light of examining the data before moving on to prove something. This is something that I'm reminded of when sampling the public Twitter stream...I use Twitter probably more than I do email, but my perception of what the Twitter community is like -- I.e. Who and from where people participate, the kind of things they tweet about, etc -- are inextricably narrowed by how I've self-selected users to follow. So when just looking at a random sample of everything that is currently being tweeted, it practically feels like I've stepped onto an alternate reality.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
stdbrouw 11y ago
I wonder if the people upvoting the article are actually reading it. It essentially just says "be careful" without any kind of practical advice for how to think like a statistician. Two much better articles: * https://source.opennews.org/en-US/learning/distrust-your-data/ https://source.opennews.org/en-US/learning/distrust-your-dat... * https://github.com/Quartz/bad-data-guide https://github.com/Quartz/bad-data-guide
- compactmani 11y ago
  The title is advertising, which I won't hold against the author, but the message certainly isn't a bad one. In fact it's one of the factors I value the most when working with statisticians and data scientists.
- Disruptive_Dave 11y ago
  Thank you! Was quite disappointed by the lack of any even-halfway-substantial thought in the original post.
- ericdykstra 11y ago
  Just telling people to "think like a statistician" is enough to make them consider base rate information, so I wouldn't say that the article is useless, even if the content is a little lacking in the specifics.
  - stdbrouw 11y ago
    Well, if you really want to learn how to think probabilistically in everyday life, I'd recommend Douglas Hubbard's "How to Measure Anything" which contains detailed advice for how to calibrate your estimates (so you don't continually over- or underestimate the probability of various events) and how base risk management and strategic decision making on this knowledge. Probably useful for the startup folk here. http://smile.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business-ebook/dp/B00INUYS2U/ http://smile.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Bus...
- Bjartr 11y ago
  Your first link contains a link back to this article, so it seems there is at least some value to how it says "be careful".
- RivieraKid 11y ago
  Agree, pretty much zero useful / insightful / thought-provoking ideas in that article.
- dang 11y ago
lordnacho 11y ago
Stats is maybe the area of math where non-math (formulas, calculations, derivations) reasoning is the most important: - Have I unwittingly introduced a bias? Is there a selection taking place that I didn't think about when collecting the data? (Eg calling people on landlines to get polling data.) - Is there a reason why I should expect the dynamics in the dataset occur in the future, or a reason to expect it to be gone? (Eg does the financial market work like it did before the year 2000?) - If such-and-such hypothesis is true, what else should I be able to find in the data? (Eg suppose crime is caused by non-aborted kids, what other effects should there be? More truancy in schools?)
- rogeryu 11y ago
  I remember statistics exams where the math is not the problem, but the language is. The way the question was written always caused discussion. At those exams, you could wait till the end, then afterwards the answers were given, and there was always this one guy or girl who had clever questions and could interpret the question differently. Then another answer was possible. As these were multiple choice questions, that made a lot of people happy.
  - Toenex 11y ago
    Absolutely. The problem with statistics is not the maths but what it means. I think this is one reason why people become so easily unstuck with statistics, carelessly applying techniques to data without really understanding the assumptions or the subtly of the question being answered by the technique.
- Practicality 11y ago
  Does non-aborted kids mean something I am not aware of? I mean, every child who is born would be non-aborted, right?
  - stdbrouw 11y ago
    It refers to research, heavily publicized by Freakonomics, which claims that the reduction in crime rates in the US is not because of police interventions etc. but because more people are having abortions and abortions are legal in more states and so fewer people are born in dysfunctional environments that tend to produce more criminal behavior.
rdlecler1 11y ago
Consistent deviations from the null hypothesis indicate the presence of a confounding variable and pave the way to new potential discoveries. A great example (albeit not statistical) is how planets deviate from their elliptical orbits and that this provides evidence for the gravitational pull of other hidden planets and moons. Having a simple model that gives you an expectation (usually the expected value E) can be extremely powerful.
swagaholic 11y ago
Yup... uh... this is great advice for life in general. Really what this guy is saying boils down to... pay as much if not more to model selection / validity than you do to model analysis
brudgers 11y ago
After thinking like a statistician about thinking like a statistician, I thought about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist...
erikb 11y ago
The idea behind all skills is implementing them in your daily life. If you are a statistician who never really uses math in daily life, then it's not the math at fault, but you simply haven't found a way to make it a habbit yet. This is also why the points in the article are rather broad and not really statistics related. For instance, how do you decide when which details are important and when the big picture is important (two points that follow each other directly after one another). You'll probably say gut feeling. But if you don't use the science to consistently train your gut, then your gut feeling isn't that much better than mine (I'm no statistician). Yes there is a point where you get so much into the principles that you don't need to calculate everything anymore. However, that point is not after graduation, but after doing more math than the people around you for about 3-5 years, maybe 10 for some. And a huge part of your intuition would probably be around not needing a calculator to put the numbers together, and about finding many different solutions to the same problem, understanding that each has their pros and cons (e.g., different fittings that all tell you something about your data cloud). If you answer a broad question with "it depends", it's a good sign you only think you are well trained (happens to all of us all the time). If you think "it depends, if A then B but Z, if C then D but Y, if E then G but X, ..." then you are probably well trained.
xyzzy4 11y ago
One major mistake I see is when people look at statistics on a linear scale when often it should be on a logarithmic scale.

118 points by ric3rcar 11y ago

danso 11y ago

> This should go without saying, but approach data as objectively as possible. I'm not saying you shouldn't have a hunch about what you're looking for, but don't let your preconceived ideas influence the results. Because if you go to length looking for some specific pattern, you're probably going to find it. It'll just be at the sacrifice of accurate results. I couldn't say it better myself. I admit to loathing when people think that they can finally prove whatever thing they've been long advocating for, now that they have the data that proves it. Besides the huge issue of thinking that data -- by nature of being data, or something -- inherently contains more truth than just someone literally rambling into a spreadsheet...if the dataset is indeed worthwhile, and by that, I mean deep...then whatever foundational beliefs you think were true needs to be re-evaluated in light of examining the data before moving on to prove something. This is something that I'm reminded of when sampling the public Twitter stream...I use Twitter probably more than I do email, but my perception of what the Twitter community is like -- I.e. Who and from where people participate, the kind of things they tweet about, etc -- are inextricably narrowed by how I've self-selected users to follow. So when just looking at a random sample of everything that is currently being tweeted, it practically feels like I've stepped onto an alternate reality.

deleted 11y ago
[deleted]

stdbrouw 11y ago

I wonder if the people upvoting the article are actually reading it. It essentially just says "be careful" without any kind of practical advice for how to think like a statistician. Two much better articles: * https://source.opennews.org/en-US/learning/distrust-your-data/ https://source.opennews.org/en-US/learning/distrust-your-dat... * https://github.com/Quartz/bad-data-guide https://github.com/Quartz/bad-data-guide

compactmani 11y ago
The title is advertising, which I won't hold against the author, but the message certainly isn't a bad one. In fact it's one of the factors I value the most when working with statisticians and data scientists.
Disruptive_Dave 11y ago
Thank you! Was quite disappointed by the lack of any even-halfway-substantial thought in the original post.
ericdykstra 11y ago
Just telling people to "think like a statistician" is enough to make them consider base rate information, so I wouldn't say that the article is useless, even if the content is a little lacking in the specifics.
- stdbrouw 11y ago
  Well, if you really want to learn how to think probabilistically in everyday life, I'd recommend Douglas Hubbard's "How to Measure Anything" which contains detailed advice for how to calibrate your estimates (so you don't continually over- or underestimate the probability of various events) and how base risk management and strategic decision making on this knowledge. Probably useful for the startup folk here. http://smile.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business-ebook/dp/B00INUYS2U/ http://smile.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Bus...
Bjartr 11y ago
Your first link contains a link back to this article, so it seems there is at least some value to how it says "be careful".
RivieraKid 11y ago
Agree, pretty much zero useful / insightful / thought-provoking ideas in that article.
dang 11y ago

lordnacho 11y ago

Stats is maybe the area of math where non-math (formulas, calculations, derivations) reasoning is the most important: - Have I unwittingly introduced a bias? Is there a selection taking place that I didn't think about when collecting the data? (Eg calling people on landlines to get polling data.) - Is there a reason why I should expect the dynamics in the dataset occur in the future, or a reason to expect it to be gone? (Eg does the financial market work like it did before the year 2000?) - If such-and-such hypothesis is true, what else should I be able to find in the data? (Eg suppose crime is caused by non-aborted kids, what other effects should there be? More truancy in schools?)

rogeryu 11y ago
I remember statistics exams where the math is not the problem, but the language is. The way the question was written always caused discussion. At those exams, you could wait till the end, then afterwards the answers were given, and there was always this one guy or girl who had clever questions and could interpret the question differently. Then another answer was possible. As these were multiple choice questions, that made a lot of people happy.
- Toenex 11y ago
  Absolutely. The problem with statistics is not the maths but what it means. I think this is one reason why people become so easily unstuck with statistics, carelessly applying techniques to data without really understanding the assumptions or the subtly of the question being answered by the technique.
Practicality 11y ago
Does non-aborted kids mean something I am not aware of? I mean, every child who is born would be non-aborted, right?
- stdbrouw 11y ago
  It refers to research, heavily publicized by Freakonomics, which claims that the reduction in crime rates in the US is not because of police interventions etc. but because more people are having abortions and abortions are legal in more states and so fewer people are born in dysfunctional environments that tend to produce more criminal behavior.

rdlecler1 11y ago

Consistent deviations from the null hypothesis indicate the presence of a confounding variable and pave the way to new potential discoveries. A great example (albeit not statistical) is how planets deviate from their elliptical orbits and that this provides evidence for the gravitational pull of other hidden planets and moons. Having a simple model that gives you an expectation (usually the expected value E) can be extremely powerful.

swagaholic 11y ago

Yup... uh... this is great advice for life in general. Really what this guy is saying boils down to... pay as much if not more to model selection / validity than you do to model analysis

brudgers 11y ago

After thinking like a statistician about thinking like a statistician, I thought about https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist...

erikb 11y ago

The idea behind all skills is implementing them in your daily life. If you are a statistician who never really uses math in daily life, then it's not the math at fault, but you simply haven't found a way to make it a habbit yet. This is also why the points in the article are rather broad and not really statistics related. For instance, how do you decide when which details are important and when the big picture is important (two points that follow each other directly after one another). You'll probably say gut feeling. But if you don't use the science to consistently train your gut, then your gut feeling isn't that much better than mine (I'm no statistician). Yes there is a point where you get so much into the principles that you don't need to calculate everything anymore. However, that point is not after graduation, but after doing more math than the people around you for about 3-5 years, maybe 10 for some. And a huge part of your intuition would probably be around not needing a calculator to put the numbers together, and about finding many different solutions to the same problem, understanding that each has their pros and cons (e.g., different fittings that all tell you something about your data cloud). If you answer a broad question with "it depends", it's a good sign you only think you are well trained (happens to all of us all the time). If you think "it depends, if A then B but Z, if C then D but Y, if E then G but X, ..." then you are probably well trained.

xyzzy4 11y ago

One major mistake I see is when people look at statistics on a linear scale when often it should be on a logarithmic scale.