11 ms·
It's a Trap: Emperor Palpatine's Poison Pill
- tinco 11y agoI doubt that president Obama's aides expected to be quoted in economic science articles on their cost prediction of the construction of a Death Star like orbital battle station. If I read the paper right, I think the cost analysis of the Death Star is more a fun trick to build a real world money analogy in which the final quantity is of no relevance at all, as they later normalize it to a gross galactic product, based on the manhattan project.
- pjmorris 11y agoThe Manhattan project example struck me as an odd idea in the paper, as the project involved creating a whole industrial infrastructure from scratch [1], where it seems like the Death Star is a very large spacecraft in a galaxy filled with spacecraft. The carrier example seems like a better model to project from. [1] 'The Making of the Atomic Bomb', Richard Rhodes
- kpil 11y agoI guess the Manhattan project represents a feasible limit of the budget of a large cost strategic weapon in a war-strained economy.
- twoodfin 11y agoI don't think that's true: Wikipedia tells me the entire multi-year budget of the Manhattan Project ended up at around $26B in 2015 dollars. Not chump change, but certainly if they'd needed more money, more could have been found. I'd bet at least 10x that was spent on the US Navy every year of the war. Reminds me of Feynman's stories about testing the limits of what they could actually requisition. A 10" gold hemisphere ended up as a doorstop after its experimental use was complete[1]. I also remember reading somewhere about a (somewhat fanciful) request for some quantity of a rare earth element, to which the response was that it was more than the entire known global supply. [1] https://books.google.com/books?id=7papZR4oVssC&pg=PA135#v=onepage&q&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=7papZR4oVssC&pg=PA135#v=on...
- kpil 11y agoI guess the Manhattan project represents a feasible limit of the budget of a large cost strategic weapon in a war-strained economy.
- kpil 11y agoI guess the Manhattan project represents a feasible limit of the budget of a large cost strategic weapon in a war-strained economy.
- uvesten 11y agoThis post in itself is a trap! Good attempt to get a the hacker news readers interested in macroeconomy, but I'll not fall for it!
- elmar 11y agoMacroeconomics it's a Keynesian economics fantasy creation, it's a waste of time to study it.
- Mikeb85 11y agoFound the Austrian!
- mindslight 11y agoCentralization is the winning team, right up until it's not.
- mr_overalls 11y agoCan you expand on this?
- elmar 11y agoSome links: http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/a-beginners-guide-to-austrian-economics/ http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/a-beginners-guide-to-... http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/keynesian-vs-austrian-economics-made-simple-good-analogy/40845 http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/keynesian-vs-austrian-ec... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/illustrated-guide-keynesian-vs-austrian-economics http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/illustrated-guide-k...
- Mikeb85 11y agoDear god you were serious? > Some links: http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/a-beginners-guide-to-.. http://www.voicesofliberty.com/article/a-beginners-guide-to-.... http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/keynesian-vs-austrian-ec.. http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/keynesian-vs-austrian-ec.... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/illustrated-guide-k.. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-22/illustrated-guide-k.... A few of the Austrian strawmen: > http://theaustrianinsider.com/infographic-keynesian-vs-austrian-economics/ http://theaustrianinsider.com/infographic-keynesian-vs-austr... In this infographic, on the 'Austrian' side you have a chart that looks remarkably similar to the IS-LM model (Investment and Savings - Liquidity preference and Money Supply) which is a mathematical representation of Keynes' macroeconomic theory... It also mentions that interest rates are key - well they aren't exactly ignored in the IS-LM model (it's perpetually on the Y-axis), nor in present day 'Keynesian' economics (pretty much every move the fed makes is described in terms of the target interest rate). As for the cause of recessions, Austrians blame inflation, or asset-price 'bubbles'. Again, not exactly ground breaking. Why do you think central banks generally raise interest rates during times of high inflation? Today however, we barely even have inflation. And then another link is pedantic about the definition of 'inflation'. The 'cure' for recessions is apparently to let them happen. This isn't a bad thought, however there IS a human cost. The region I live in Canada right now is going through a recession, what are the symptoms? Increased crime, increased domestic violence, increased suicide, higher poverty. And this is a country with a social net. It wouldn't get any better with 'laissez-faire' policies... Anyhow, while so called 'Keynesians' are busy actually trying to be economists (both in industry and government), 'Austrian' economists are basically just whining about how they're marginalized, without offering up anything more than empty rhetoric and no answers. And then the best straw-man of all: "Why did no one predict the housing crisis and subsequent recession?" For the same reason "no one" predicts the crashes of individual stocks. Because people get caught up in the frenzy, ignore the voice of reason, and the smart money has already exited... If no one predicted the housing crisis, why did Goldman Sachs bet against it? BTW, Keynes was a fairly successful investor, far more so than Hayek... Speaking of investing, one of my favourite quotes: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs just get slaughtered!"
- xntrk 11y agoI like the subject is "General Finance". It seems like pretty specific case study to me....
- GFK_of_xmaspast 11y agoI don't know how the q-fin section works, but in the math part of the arxiv "General Mathematics" is the bucket that the admins put crank articles in before they get removed.
- kaiizen 11y agoThat's an Ad
- dsjoerg 11y agoDisney still not calming the F down
- logfromblammo 11y agoI am also growing irritated with the excessive promotion that is not only saturating all media, but also somehow overflowing into everything else. It is almost to the point where I expect that someone will sneak into my home and replace my usual clothing with Star Wars 7 promotional apparel as I sleep. And I also know that since Disney owns Lucasfilm now, it will never, ever stop. The franchise is part of that entertainment black hole that has become a never-ending advertisement for itself. They're going to make this release a success on paper, whether anyone actually likes the movie or not, because they're already contracted to make two more of them, plus the toys and video games.
- talmand 11y agoI like the theory they are trying to recoup the costs of purchasing the franchise off the first movie. Then things may calm down.
- GFK_of_xmaspast 11y agoThere was a shitload of marketing and tie-ins for RotJ too.
- Splines 11y agoOP appears to be interested in scientific papers, and may have stumbled upon it. This is unlikely to be astroturfing and more a side-effect of the recent interest in Star Wars and its associated marketing push.
- frozenport 11y agoThe plural pronoun "we" is used despite there only being one author.
- mabbo 11y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F.D.C._Willard https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/F.D.C._Willard
- rubidium 11y agoThis is very common in academia. Not saying it makes sense. Just saying he's following the craft.
- geon 11y agoThe author + the reader?
- kej 11y agoI always heard it explained as the author plus everyone who laid the groundwork in the field. Sort of a standing-on-the-shoulders-of-giants thing.
- infimum 11y agoi always read it as a 'generalized' personal pronoun implying no particular subject (like 'man' in german or 'on' in french) which is nicer than writing everything in a passive voice.
- restalis 11y ago"You" for singular and plural seemed mind-narrowing to me at first too, until we... got accustomed to. Surely the trend can continue with other pronouns!
- itaibn 11y agoAnd gender-neutral singular "they" is steadily growing more popular!
- tirant 11y agoConclusion: "In this case study we found that the Rebel Alliance would need to prepare a bailout of at least 15%, and likely at least 20%, of GGP in order to mitigate the systemic risks and the sudden and catastrophic economic collapse. Without such funds at the ready, it likely the Galactic economy would enter an economic depression of astronomical proportions."
- LanceH 11y agoThe death star has no intrinsic economic value. It produces nothing, so it's destruction shouldn't really change anything. It could only ever be back by either taxation or the printing of money. This doesn't change whether it exists or not. The destruction of the death star may reduce the burden since it would no longer incur operational costs. On the other hand, it did establish the operators as a tax authority. I would expect lending banks to be covered by printed money followed by corresponding inflation. On the other hand, if the lenders are isolated among relatively few planets/systems, they could be overtaken by the government and those systems would bear the brunt of the losses. The most likely outcome wouldn't be galactic recession, but return to chaos and war as the grievances between systems would now be unchecked.
- pm90 11y agoIt has as much economic value as Aircraft Carriers do. It might be an economy in itself, creating a demand for food and other necessities which must be procured from somewhere, generating demand. It must also be supplied by weapons, clothing etc (not sure how durable they are in that world). But you're right that it can act as an enforcement agency, a tax collector of sorts. Or maybe an extortionist: "Pay up or we destroy your planet!".
- Renevith 11y agoCreating additional demand for other goods is not valuable; quite the opposite: it's a cost that needs to be balanced against whatever ongoing value is being provided.
- amyjess 11y agoI'm impressed they managed to stick in a "Han shot first" joke.
- sageikosa 11y agoI always figured it'd be easier to find a small moon and retrofit it with power-plants, engines, weapons and facilities than build a complete small-moon sized system made of (mostly hollow?) worked metal in orbit. Cheaper and probably more rugged.
- pavel_lishin 11y agoIt could be a problem of mass - a Death Star made of composite materials probably masses quite a bit less than an equivalent-sized moon or asteroid, (presumably) making it a lot cheaper to shuttle around. (I freely admit to being more of a Trek than Wars fan, so I don't actually know how physics has been toyed with in that particular distant galaxy, so I don't know if my hypothesis is true - maybe they use spindizzy-like motors so that larger masses are actually more economical to move?)
- kaybe 11y agoI think they never talk about it. Star wars is space opera, basically a fairy tale in space, with the ancient story patterns, and not science fiction.
- pavel_lishin 11y agoSure, but it's fun to speculate and try to pin down consistent rules! (I'm a happy reader of r/asksciencefiction, if you can't tell.)
- aaronem 11y agoPut more accurately, it's even softer sci-fi than Trek. The deuterocanonical "Expanded Universe" material[1] goes to a lot of effort to explain and justify stuff like moon-sized space stations and jet-fighter-sized ships that can destroy stars, but if you don't just sort of turn your critical faculties off and go along for the ride, it gets too much to bear pretty quick. [1] Now more properly called the "apocryphal pre-Disney Expanded Universe material", or so I gather.
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- gosub 11y agohttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_Interstellar_Trade https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Theory_of_Interstellar_Tra... should be in the bibliography
- nilkn 11y agoThis is a silly and basically irrelevant question, but is there a reason that "sextillion", "billion", "quintillion", etc., are consistently written in all caps? I've never seen this practice before.
- brink2death 11y agoSeriously, Episode VII spoilers on Hacker News?! Not cool guys!
- pavel_lishin 11y agoWhere do you see spoilers?
- kposehn 11y agoTechnically, it is the Battle of the _Forest Moon_ of Endor in 4ABY. >_>
- elmar 11y agoBlowing Up the Death Star Didn’t Destroy Economy, Building It Did. https://mises.org/blog/blowing-death-star-didn%E2%80%99t-destroy-economy-building-it-did https://mises.org/blog/blowing-death-star-didn%E2%80%99t-des...
- acqq 11y agoHow can the arguments from that article be applied to all the stuff produced for the U.S. military? 1.5 Trillion (with a T) USD for just F-35 Joint Strike Fighter: http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/31/how-dods-15-trillion-f-35-broke-the-air-force.html http://www.cnbc.com/2014/07/31/how-dods-15-trillion-f-35-bro... V.s: "While noted science fiction fan Paul Krugman may point to the number of jobs that the Death Star created, Hazlitt is also ready with a response. Using the example of government building an unnecessary bridge: [F]or every public job created by the bridge project a private job has been destroyed somewhere else. We can see the men employed on the bridge. We can watch them at work. The employment argument of the government spenders becomes vivid, and probably for most people convincing. But there are other things that we do not see, because, alas, they have never been permitted to come into existence."
- afterburner 11y agoPublic investment doesn't crowd out private investment if the private sector isn't investing anyways. Such as in a depression, or other instances of high unemployment.
- Eliezer 11y agoThe correct way to fix that by having the Federal Reserve lower interest rates or do quantitative easing - you create new medium of exchange until the volume of trade is going as fast as practical. The fiscal multiplier is zero when monetary policy is active.
- rplst8 11y agoSure it does. In order to generate the money needed to pay the public workers, either taxes must be raised or the monetary supply changed. In either case this affects the private sector economy that shifts investors away from using the capital they have to do some work.
- Macha 11y agoClearly they need a follow up article on the consequences of building a much larger multiple of solid gold death stars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMldEs0rf8o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qMldEs0rf8o