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So by now Uber has raised capital and debt from: - some pretty famous angle investors - some pretty famous venture capital funds - some pretty famous investm

So by now Uber has raised capital and debt from: - some pretty famous angle investors - some pretty famous venture capital funds - some pretty famous investment banks - some pretty famous private equity firms - some pretty famous hedge funds - some pretty famous mutual funds It's worth asking, if they have reached the point where their success becomes less about their execution, though that's still important, and more of a self fulfilling prophecy. I mean you now have some very influential people to call on if you need help on navigating the IPO process, or government lobbying for rules changes, etc. I've completely changed my mind on Uber, 18 months ago I would have felt nervous as employee joining them when determining if my options would be worth much. Now, I'd be asking if i could put 50% of my paycheck towards buying more options. Steve Balmer was famous for acquiring as much Microsoft stock as he could, even after he became the CEO. I'd be mimicking Steve Balmer here and acquiring as much Uber as I could right now.

Retric 11y ago
There is limited upside at 60+billion.
adventured 11y ago
Definitely. It's one of the best reasons to pursue the famous venture capital firms. John Doerr has a lot of important people's phone numbers, and they will take his call (with the same obviously being true about maybe two dozen other famous investors). It's why Dropbox put Condoleezza Rice on its board. It's why Gilead had Donald Rumsfeld as its Chairman. It's why Theranos has an all-star line-up on its board. Business is, always has been, and always will be, heavily about networks. You can do it without them, it's just drastically harder.
matthewowen 11y ago
My understanding is that Uber is currently providing new hires with RSUs, not options (so valuation growth isn't necessarily necessary). I could be misinformed.
- dubroff 11y ago
  What do you mean by "valuation growth isn't necessarily necessary"?
  - outside1234 11y ago
    RSUs are actual stock. so if you get granted $100k in stock, and the stock only drops by a $1 over the course of a year, you still get $99k in stock. less upside and less downside.
marcusgarvey 11y ago
Your question about self-fulfilling prophecy is very relevant to a recent piece written by a transportation expert. Among other points he makes: >Uber-type companies need to be understood as a radical departure from Amazon/EBay type models. Instead of displacing competitors through actual efficiencies, or by creating entirely new markets, its model is entirely based on getting the world to believe that it will inevitably dominate the entire industry. This requires aggressively suppressing any discussion of empirical economic evidence (which would undermine its case) and emphasizing the factors driving inevitability--the brilliance of its early stage investors, the ruthlessness of management, and the raw political power of the company’s wealthy supporters. PR is a component of every start-up; at Amazon/EBay it played a supporting role and relied heavily on economic evidence of competitive strengths, but at Uber PR is the heart of the plan, and replaces the need to figure out how to provide much better service at much lower cost. https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-problem-transportation-industry-expert-writes/a5c239cf3fc961d10b17a4892d0f74e899b77fd9/ https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-pro...
- gmarx 11y ago
  I think they are creating a new market. People now use Uber in situations in which they never would have thought to take a cab. That is not to say this valuation makes sense
  - marcusgarvey 11y ago
    Perhaps so, but how substantial is that compared to the market of people who are just using Uber as a more convenient and reliable cab? Surely the latter is the vast bulk of their business.
    - gmarx 11y ago
      currently but I can foresee a time when it is so convenient to hail a car that a lot of people just forgo car ownership entirely. Think of a future in which self driving cars work well and you can use your phone to get one to wherever you are within 10 minutes, get dropped off anywhere, never worry about parking and it costs far less than car ownership.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
sbov 11y ago
In other words, Uber has the connections to unduly influence the government in a way to make sure they survive. Which is kinda the reason why people want things like taxi companies to fail. So is this a good or bad thing?
vonmoltke 11y ago
> I've completely changed my mind on Uber, 18 months ago I would have felt nervous as employee joining them when determining if my options would be worth much. Now, I'd be asking if i could put 50% of my paycheck towards buying more options. Almost seems like this is the ideal point to join one of these unicorns.

Retric 11y ago

There is limited upside at 60+billion.

adventured 11y ago

Definitely. It's one of the best reasons to pursue the famous venture capital firms. John Doerr has a lot of important people's phone numbers, and they will take his call (with the same obviously being true about maybe two dozen other famous investors). It's why Dropbox put Condoleezza Rice on its board. It's why Gilead had Donald Rumsfeld as its Chairman. It's why Theranos has an all-star line-up on its board. Business is, always has been, and always will be, heavily about networks. You can do it without them, it's just drastically harder.

matthewowen 11y ago

My understanding is that Uber is currently providing new hires with RSUs, not options (so valuation growth isn't necessarily necessary). I could be misinformed.

dubroff 11y ago
What do you mean by "valuation growth isn't necessarily necessary"?
- outside1234 11y ago
  RSUs are actual stock. so if you get granted $100k in stock, and the stock only drops by a $1 over the course of a year, you still get $99k in stock. less upside and less downside.

marcusgarvey 11y ago

Your question about self-fulfilling prophecy is very relevant to a recent piece written by a transportation expert. Among other points he makes: >Uber-type companies need to be understood as a radical departure from Amazon/EBay type models. Instead of displacing competitors through actual efficiencies, or by creating entirely new markets, its model is entirely based on getting the world to believe that it will inevitably dominate the entire industry. This requires aggressively suppressing any discussion of empirical economic evidence (which would undermine its case) and emphasizing the factors driving inevitability--the brilliance of its early stage investors, the ruthlessness of management, and the raw political power of the company’s wealthy supporters. PR is a component of every start-up; at Amazon/EBay it played a supporting role and relied heavily on economic evidence of competitive strengths, but at Uber PR is the heart of the plan, and replaces the need to figure out how to provide much better service at much lower cost. https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-problem-transportation-industry-expert-writes/a5c239cf3fc961d10b17a4892d0f74e899b77fd9/ https://pando.com/2015/12/01/has-pando-missed-heart-uber-pro...

gmarx 11y ago
I think they are creating a new market. People now use Uber in situations in which they never would have thought to take a cab. That is not to say this valuation makes sense
- marcusgarvey 11y ago
  Perhaps so, but how substantial is that compared to the market of people who are just using Uber as a more convenient and reliable cab? Surely the latter is the vast bulk of their business.
  - gmarx 11y ago
    currently but I can foresee a time when it is so convenient to hail a car that a lot of people just forgo car ownership entirely. Think of a future in which self driving cars work well and you can use your phone to get one to wherever you are within 10 minutes, get dropped off anywhere, never worry about parking and it costs far less than car ownership.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

sbov 11y ago

In other words, Uber has the connections to unduly influence the government in a way to make sure they survive. Which is kinda the reason why people want things like taxi companies to fail. So is this a good or bad thing?

vonmoltke 11y ago

> I've completely changed my mind on Uber, 18 months ago I would have felt nervous as employee joining them when determining if my options would be worth much. Now, I'd be asking if i could put 50% of my paycheck towards buying more options. Almost seems like this is the ideal point to join one of these unicorns.