8 ms·

If the vast majority of ideas are bad and only a few ideas are good - this leads us to think about a market of ideas. Generally then the market is awash with id

by chippy 11y ago

If the vast majority of ideas are bad and only a few ideas are good - this leads us to think about a market of ideas. Generally then the market is awash with ideas - this makes ideas cheap as there is plentiful supply. The only way to determine the value of the idea is to enact, to invest in the idea - but before this, when the ideas are on their own, they are cheap and plentiful and most will be lemons. This is why I still believe that not telling anyone about your idea is likely to be a bad thing - stealth mode in general is not wise at the early stage before enactment. Why? Because most times these ideas are not worth much and you would benefit from the feedback from seeing how that idea fares in the public domain. This doesn't invalidate the authors very good summary of how to find a good idea - and I don't think the article was necessarily saying that ideas should be kept secret all the time either - it's just a related thought!

bsbechtel 11y ago
Many investors, including YC, have a number of companies that operate in stealth mode until launch. It would be an interesting exercise to map the success of startups that operate in stealth mode pre-launch vs those that don't.
- danieltillett 11y ago
  It certainly would. The mere fact that stealth mode exists is an indication that serious people value good ideas.
  - skewart 11y ago
    Perhaps. Although, stealth mode isn't necessarily driven by a fear of copycats. In many cases it's about hiding the fact that a company doesn't entirely know what they're doing while they try to figure things out. This seems to be especially common in B2B markets where there are a relatively small number of potential customers (though each one might pay a lot for the statup's product), and almost all of these customers are likely to learn about the startup very quickly. The stealth mode startup isn't really keeping their ideas secret from potential competitors but rather from potential customers. They want to avoid customers getting confused, being turned off, or losing trust if they were too transparent about what they're working on - and how much its changing - before they're ready to launch.
  - pc86 11y ago
    It is an indication that they value first mover advantage. It has nothing to do with the value of ideas.
    - danieltillett 11y ago
      Aren't they valuing the idea in this case? If they thought there was no risk of someone stealing the idea then why keep it quiet?
      - pc86 11y ago
        > If they thought there was no risk of someone stealing the idea I didn't say that. In fact, I said the opposite - they acknowledge there is a risk in someone stealing the advantage of being first to market, irrespective of the idea itself. Being first to market on a mediocre idea with good execution is an order of magnitude better than being fifth to market on a great idea with good execution.
        danieltillett 11y ago
        I am not so sure being first with a mediocre idea is better than coming to market latter with a great idea. Mediocre ideas increase the chance of failure, but more importanty no idea that is being executed on by four others before you is a truely good idea.
  - jacquesm 11y ago
    Stealth mode is a way to to focus on what's important: get the product finished, rather than to have to deal with the outside world. It rarely if ever has to do with keeping the idea secret. First mover advantage is worth protecting too, as well as a change of direction in case your great idea does not work out after more time is invested in implementing it or if you realize there are even greener pastures. Stealth mode - and secrecy in general - is a tool, but the day you open the doors to your first users the competition will be able to look at what you've made and then the clock to locking up the market is ticking. This is extra important when it comes to ideas that have network effects.
    - danieltillett 11y ago
      Isn't what you are protecting in this case the idea? If you just want to focus on building the product you don't need to be in stealth mode. It is only if you are worried about some exploiting your idea do you keep quiet.
      - jacquesm 11y ago
        It is fairly safe to assume that if you have an idea, so do others. But idea+validation: that's already another step. So you try to protect that combination to stave off the inevitable Samwer brothers clone. And even then, the first three weeks out of the gate had better be longer than it takes to get a clone MVP up and running.
        danieltillett 11y ago
        A product that can be cloned in three weeks is not a great product. I thought the samwer brothers just cloned successful companies that already proven in the market?
        jacquesm 11y ago
        > I thought the samwer brothers just cloned successful companies that already proven in the market? Yes, because those are the valuable ideas. From their point of view spending time on unproven ideas is a waste, it is much easier to copy a successful company for a niche market than it is to come up with an entirely new concept for a much broader one.
  - FiatLuxDave 11y ago
    Former stealth moder here. I really liked your essay and I appreciate that someone is pushing back against the 'ideas are cheap' meme. I think you were really smart to make the first item be that an idea which you cannot execute is a bad idea for a startup. However, I think that your essay left out one really important thing: what people mean when they say 'idea'. It's helpful to unwrap what we mean when we say 'idea' so that we can distinguish between the two different cases of value: 'it's only an idea' vs. 'an idea that can change the world'. I think that the disconnect between the 'ideas are cheap' crowd and the 'ideas are valuable' crowd is that they don't mean exactly the same thing when they say 'idea'. And knowing the difference not only means that you can speak someone else's language, it also means that you can see how to add value to your ideas. Whether it is a business idea, product idea, or invention idea, the level of vagueness affects how much value it has. There is a difference between 1) an idea for a product, 2) an idea for the basis of how it works, and 3) a complete set of code or blueprints for making one. 'Execution' is largely what we call going from step 2 to 3, but both step 1 and step 2 get called ideas. Even step 2.5, where something is not fully executed but the details have been worked out, gets called an idea. I'd love to see more about how adding specificity adds value, but only if it is correct. Taking a great idea (say, the diesel engine) and making a poor implementation of it (building a really crappy diesel engine) doesn't take value away from the earlier steps of the idea (someone else can build a better one). So, ideas start with little value, but get more value as more correct specificity is added.
    - danieltillett 11y ago
      Thanks. I did avoid getting into a definition of what I think an idea is mainly because I wanted the essay to be a catalyst for people to think about their own ideas, not just be another rant. I like to think of ideas and execution as potential and kinetic energy. A great idea is a bolder at the top of a hill, while a bad idea is a bolder at the bottom. Execution is the process of keeping the bolder moving.
danieltillett 11y ago
Yes the market is awash with idea - ideas that are just OK or so-so - very few are a really, really good. The problem is as always telling the truly good ideas from the just good. Having a good checklist is one way I think. I am most defiantly not saying that truly good ideas should be kept secret, but I am saying they have true intrinsic value. Sometimes this value can be best utilised by sharing widely and sometime is best utilised by keeping quiet. The important thing is knowing when it is best to stay quiet and best to talk.
- dkersten 11y ago
  A lot of fantastically great ideas seemed like terrible ideas until they were executed. That is why a lot of people say that ideas are cheap, execution is what has value.
  - danieltillett 11y ago
    This is true, the key is seeming like a terrible idea, not actually being a terrible idea. A good idea does not have to appear to be good after 15 seconds, in fact, it is probably a warning sign if everyone thinks your idea is good straight away as then it is likely that someone else has had it and is working on it, or there is some fundamental flaw that you have missed. Execution most defiantly is critical, but the quality of the idea make execution much easier. The purpose of my post was not to downplay the importance of execution, but to touch on the value of truly good ideas and more importantly how you might find them and recognise them.
    - mattlutze 11y ago
      Except that one of the hallmarks of a really good or great idea is that almost anyone you tell it to says "oh, of course, it's so simple." But you need a big enough sample size to know it's not friendship-bias from your trusted confidants and some crazy guy with money one of your college buddies knows. Leading us back to execution...
      - 11y ago
ThomPete 11y ago
I would like to offer a different perspective to this. Instead of thinking of ideas as cheap, think of them as fragile. Most ideas wont stand up to even preliminary scrutiny. Great ideas aren't Eureka moments that come from nothing and suddenly appear in front of us. Most of them are vague intuitions, about some potential for something to be created and then over time grow to manifest themselves. Over time they become stronger as they are nourished and cared for and defended until they are what we call great ideas. But here is the thing. You never know which idea has the potential to become something big. So the trick IMO is to care for ideas early on, to protect them and see if they can survive the ever present scrutiny from the reality they need to exist in by protecting them. Ideas aren't cheap they are the most important thing humans have and we should learn how to nourish the good ones and dispel of the bad ones. Just like we do with our children.
- bsbechtel 11y ago
  >>Great ideas aren't Eureka moments that come from nothing and suddenly appear in front of us. Furthermore, many great companies (and one great idea) aren't Eureka moments, but the accumulation of hundreds of smaller, good ideas, brought about by great people, combining to become what appears to be one simple, grand idea to outsiders.
  - ThomPete 11y ago
    Exactly. Even Pixar movies follow this approach. And so the trick is to not just throw an idea out because it doesn't stand up to some immediate scrutiny, but to try and defend it just a little bit more than you would normally do. Most great ideas start out as really bad ones.
    - danieltillett 11y ago
      I wouldn't say most good ideas start out bad, but most do start out with major weaknesses or gaps. This is why I emphasise in my essay the importance of writing down your ideas and thinking about them often. It may take years and lots of evolution before an idea becomes really good.

by chippy 11y ago

bsbechtel 11y ago

Many investors, including YC, have a number of companies that operate in stealth mode until launch. It would be an interesting exercise to map the success of startups that operate in stealth mode pre-launch vs those that don't.

danieltillett 11y ago
It certainly would. The mere fact that stealth mode exists is an indication that serious people value good ideas.
- skewart 11y ago
  Perhaps. Although, stealth mode isn't necessarily driven by a fear of copycats. In many cases it's about hiding the fact that a company doesn't entirely know what they're doing while they try to figure things out. This seems to be especially common in B2B markets where there are a relatively small number of potential customers (though each one might pay a lot for the statup's product), and almost all of these customers are likely to learn about the startup very quickly. The stealth mode startup isn't really keeping their ideas secret from potential competitors but rather from potential customers. They want to avoid customers getting confused, being turned off, or losing trust if they were too transparent about what they're working on - and how much its changing - before they're ready to launch.
- pc86 11y ago
  It is an indication that they value first mover advantage. It has nothing to do with the value of ideas.
  - danieltillett 11y ago
    Aren't they valuing the idea in this case? If they thought there was no risk of someone stealing the idea then why keep it quiet?
    - pc86 11y ago
      > If they thought there was no risk of someone stealing the idea I didn't say that. In fact, I said the opposite - they acknowledge there is a risk in someone stealing the advantage of being first to market, irrespective of the idea itself. Being first to market on a mediocre idea with good execution is an order of magnitude better than being fifth to market on a great idea with good execution.
      - danieltillett 11y ago
        I am not so sure being first with a mediocre idea is better than coming to market latter with a great idea. Mediocre ideas increase the chance of failure, but more importanty no idea that is being executed on by four others before you is a truely good idea.
- jacquesm 11y ago
  Stealth mode is a way to to focus on what's important: get the product finished, rather than to have to deal with the outside world. It rarely if ever has to do with keeping the idea secret. First mover advantage is worth protecting too, as well as a change of direction in case your great idea does not work out after more time is invested in implementing it or if you realize there are even greener pastures. Stealth mode - and secrecy in general - is a tool, but the day you open the doors to your first users the competition will be able to look at what you've made and then the clock to locking up the market is ticking. This is extra important when it comes to ideas that have network effects.
  - danieltillett 11y ago
    Isn't what you are protecting in this case the idea? If you just want to focus on building the product you don't need to be in stealth mode. It is only if you are worried about some exploiting your idea do you keep quiet.
    - jacquesm 11y ago
      It is fairly safe to assume that if you have an idea, so do others. But idea+validation: that's already another step. So you try to protect that combination to stave off the inevitable Samwer brothers clone. And even then, the first three weeks out of the gate had better be longer than it takes to get a clone MVP up and running.
      - danieltillett 11y ago
        A product that can be cloned in three weeks is not a great product. I thought the samwer brothers just cloned successful companies that already proven in the market?
        jacquesm 11y ago
        > I thought the samwer brothers just cloned successful companies that already proven in the market? Yes, because those are the valuable ideas. From their point of view spending time on unproven ideas is a waste, it is much easier to copy a successful company for a niche market than it is to come up with an entirely new concept for a much broader one.
- FiatLuxDave 11y ago
  Former stealth moder here. I really liked your essay and I appreciate that someone is pushing back against the 'ideas are cheap' meme. I think you were really smart to make the first item be that an idea which you cannot execute is a bad idea for a startup. However, I think that your essay left out one really important thing: what people mean when they say 'idea'. It's helpful to unwrap what we mean when we say 'idea' so that we can distinguish between the two different cases of value: 'it's only an idea' vs. 'an idea that can change the world'. I think that the disconnect between the 'ideas are cheap' crowd and the 'ideas are valuable' crowd is that they don't mean exactly the same thing when they say 'idea'. And knowing the difference not only means that you can speak someone else's language, it also means that you can see how to add value to your ideas. Whether it is a business idea, product idea, or invention idea, the level of vagueness affects how much value it has. There is a difference between 1) an idea for a product, 2) an idea for the basis of how it works, and 3) a complete set of code or blueprints for making one. 'Execution' is largely what we call going from step 2 to 3, but both step 1 and step 2 get called ideas. Even step 2.5, where something is not fully executed but the details have been worked out, gets called an idea. I'd love to see more about how adding specificity adds value, but only if it is correct. Taking a great idea (say, the diesel engine) and making a poor implementation of it (building a really crappy diesel engine) doesn't take value away from the earlier steps of the idea (someone else can build a better one). So, ideas start with little value, but get more value as more correct specificity is added.
  - danieltillett 11y ago
    Thanks. I did avoid getting into a definition of what I think an idea is mainly because I wanted the essay to be a catalyst for people to think about their own ideas, not just be another rant. I like to think of ideas and execution as potential and kinetic energy. A great idea is a bolder at the top of a hill, while a bad idea is a bolder at the bottom. Execution is the process of keeping the bolder moving.

danieltillett 11y ago

Yes the market is awash with idea - ideas that are just OK or so-so - very few are a really, really good. The problem is as always telling the truly good ideas from the just good. Having a good checklist is one way I think. I am most defiantly not saying that truly good ideas should be kept secret, but I am saying they have true intrinsic value. Sometimes this value can be best utilised by sharing widely and sometime is best utilised by keeping quiet. The important thing is knowing when it is best to stay quiet and best to talk.

dkersten 11y ago
A lot of fantastically great ideas seemed like terrible ideas until they were executed. That is why a lot of people say that ideas are cheap, execution is what has value.
- danieltillett 11y ago
  This is true, the key is seeming like a terrible idea, not actually being a terrible idea. A good idea does not have to appear to be good after 15 seconds, in fact, it is probably a warning sign if everyone thinks your idea is good straight away as then it is likely that someone else has had it and is working on it, or there is some fundamental flaw that you have missed. Execution most defiantly is critical, but the quality of the idea make execution much easier. The purpose of my post was not to downplay the importance of execution, but to touch on the value of truly good ideas and more importantly how you might find them and recognise them.
  - mattlutze 11y ago
    Except that one of the hallmarks of a really good or great idea is that almost anyone you tell it to says "oh, of course, it's so simple." But you need a big enough sample size to know it's not friendship-bias from your trusted confidants and some crazy guy with money one of your college buddies knows. Leading us back to execution...
    - 11y ago

ThomPete 11y ago

I would like to offer a different perspective to this. Instead of thinking of ideas as cheap, think of them as fragile. Most ideas wont stand up to even preliminary scrutiny. Great ideas aren't Eureka moments that come from nothing and suddenly appear in front of us. Most of them are vague intuitions, about some potential for something to be created and then over time grow to manifest themselves. Over time they become stronger as they are nourished and cared for and defended until they are what we call great ideas. But here is the thing. You never know which idea has the potential to become something big. So the trick IMO is to care for ideas early on, to protect them and see if they can survive the ever present scrutiny from the reality they need to exist in by protecting them. Ideas aren't cheap they are the most important thing humans have and we should learn how to nourish the good ones and dispel of the bad ones. Just like we do with our children.

bsbechtel 11y ago
>>Great ideas aren't Eureka moments that come from nothing and suddenly appear in front of us. Furthermore, many great companies (and one great idea) aren't Eureka moments, but the accumulation of hundreds of smaller, good ideas, brought about by great people, combining to become what appears to be one simple, grand idea to outsiders.
- ThomPete 11y ago
  Exactly. Even Pixar movies follow this approach. And so the trick is to not just throw an idea out because it doesn't stand up to some immediate scrutiny, but to try and defend it just a little bit more than you would normally do. Most great ideas start out as really bad ones.
  - danieltillett 11y ago
    I wouldn't say most good ideas start out bad, but most do start out with major weaknesses or gaps. This is why I emphasise in my essay the importance of writing down your ideas and thinking about them often. It may take years and lots of evolution before an idea becomes really good.