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You are not saying anything original here that is not the complete median view on the Street. Eurozone 0%: check. UK bright spot: check. Japan a debt disaster:

You are not saying anything original here that is not the complete median view on the Street. Eurozone 0%: check. UK bright spot: check. Japan a debt disaster: check. Russia suffering: check. China/US the future: check. There is nothing here that if followed, will allow anybody to outperform because this is complete consensus, it's what's priced in almost exactly. Yet the real alpha-generation skill is to challenge the received wisdom which here, is light years from happening. How about the view that the a 9% yield in Russia is actually hugely more interesting than a 2% yield in dollars. What about the idea that 40$ oil is cheap as chips and the bargain of a generation? Maybe China's debt situation is, if we dig a bit deeper than the surface, much worse than Japan's, short term? Perhaps the UK is a financial bubble far too long of Arab money and that the Eurozone's current travails represent the small potential for light at the end of the tunnel on the view of renewal? Not saying these are true, just that they might be worth considering. Still, thank you for paraphrasing in one short paragraph exactly what I hear in my inbox in PDF form 20x per hour from the analyst community.

adventured 11y ago
Sure, but you won't catch me disagreeing that the upcoming $30x oil price isn't a huge bargain. I think it is, and I think numerous oil companies are going to be tremendous investments at that point. Lots of commodity sectors are producing huge bargains already, and are likely to get cheaper yet. Anyone patient enough to hold long-term and suffer through the next few years, will be rewarded. I don't think Russia is interesting. They're incapable of doing anything economically outside of commodities, and so long as the dollar is strong, Russia will be a mess. Putin has wasted his time in power on consolidating power, rather than diversifying the economy. They're a very low innovation, stagnate economy. That has resulted in the facade coming off, it's clear now that Putin has no clothes and can never cultivate a truly prosperous economy (their GDP per capita is now below Romania and Poland). It's the typical command economy outcome. Russian culture seems to spend all of its time being angry at the outside world for their self-inflicted wounds, creating an us vs them mentality, and it leads them to the same place every time: isolation. They have an intense victim mentality, and extremely low national self-esteem (which is where the projecting comes from and why Putin has to pretend to be a strong-man when he's the exact opposite). You watch these documentaries on their culture, and it's almost unbelievable how backwards they are: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcUsdARY6o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcUsdARY6o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv6ROkgsiNs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv6ROkgsiNs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaoYKoImjys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaoYKoImjys I agree that China is in very, very serious trouble when it comes to debt. They may be the most indebted nation per dollar of GDP at this point, including the huge sums of shadow debt stalking around their economy. However, I think it's more likely they'll stagnate for the next 20 years, Japan style, rather than suffer any near term sharp event. They've practically copied the mistakes Japan made perfectly. China's debt will eat most of their growth potential, until they either grow beyond it enough, or start paying it down.

adventured 11y ago

Sure, but you won't catch me disagreeing that the upcoming $30x oil price isn't a huge bargain. I think it is, and I think numerous oil companies are going to be tremendous investments at that point. Lots of commodity sectors are producing huge bargains already, and are likely to get cheaper yet. Anyone patient enough to hold long-term and suffer through the next few years, will be rewarded. I don't think Russia is interesting. They're incapable of doing anything economically outside of commodities, and so long as the dollar is strong, Russia will be a mess. Putin has wasted his time in power on consolidating power, rather than diversifying the economy. They're a very low innovation, stagnate economy. That has resulted in the facade coming off, it's clear now that Putin has no clothes and can never cultivate a truly prosperous economy (their GDP per capita is now below Romania and Poland). It's the typical command economy outcome. Russian culture seems to spend all of its time being angry at the outside world for their self-inflicted wounds, creating an us vs them mentality, and it leads them to the same place every time: isolation. They have an intense victim mentality, and extremely low national self-esteem (which is where the projecting comes from and why Putin has to pretend to be a strong-man when he's the exact opposite). You watch these documentaries on their culture, and it's almost unbelievable how backwards they are: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcUsdARY6o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iZcUsdARY6o https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv6ROkgsiNs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pv6ROkgsiNs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaoYKoImjys https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IaoYKoImjys I agree that China is in very, very serious trouble when it comes to debt. They may be the most indebted nation per dollar of GDP at this point, including the huge sums of shadow debt stalking around their economy. However, I think it's more likely they'll stagnate for the next 20 years, Japan style, rather than suffer any near term sharp event. They've practically copied the mistakes Japan made perfectly. China's debt will eat most of their growth potential, until they either grow beyond it enough, or start paying it down.