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> Self-driving cars are not a silver bullet for congestion If only we had self-driving cars. Everyone talks about them as if they are a done thing, but they're

by m0nty 11y ago

> Self-driving cars are not a silver bullet for congestion If only we had self-driving cars. Everyone talks about them as if they are a done thing, but they're still under development and it seems there are still huge problems to overcome. That includes technical and legislative issues. Even if those problems can be overcome, will people actually want to buy them? Will they be able to afford them, or will these effectively be luxury/status-symbol vehicles? I think it's too easy to succumb to Nirvana Fallacy when we discuss them.

ghaff 11y ago
If they were commercially available as door-to-door vehicles without a human driver needed across broad areas of the US, I think it's fair to say that people would swarm to buy them. And I suspect enough of the secret sauce will be in software that I doubt if cost will be the main stumbling block even if techs appear first in luxury vehicles (as is the case with assistive driving features). The bigger question is what realistic timeframe we're looking at. I know smart people who go on about exponential progress and all that think we're talking 10 years. I've also listened to researchers in this area who think it's 50+ years and IMO they're probably closer. The challenge is that accurately mapped streets only get you so far and there are a lot of real world situations a car would need to be able to handle that are well beyond the current level of tech.
- Ensorceled 11y ago
  The self driving car doesn't need to be able to handle things like the dirt road to my parents place to be a success for the vast majority of people.
  - ghaff 11y ago
    I agree. But it does need to handle a significant portion of the paved road network, in a variety of weather conditions, and deal at least somewhat gracefully with construction zones and accidents. Even self-driving just on freeways would be useful but at that point it's primarily a convenience feature rather than something enabling significantly different uses of cars.
Ensorceled 11y ago
Self driving cars will create a virtuous cycle, ageing drivers who lose their licenses will be forced to buy them to stay mobile, this availability will decrease police/insurance/legislative tolerance of poor driving which will increase the number of drivers required to buy them. The boomers are going to make this happen. People won't "buy" self driving cars, they will briefly borrow them from ZipCar, Uber or Ford. The younger generation as a whole is much less interested in learning to drive or purchase a car. They will also be pushing to make this happen.
- theklub 11y ago
  And thus we continue to sleepwalk into a state of total control.
  - Ensorceled 11y ago
    Not sure how preferences for mass transit, longer independence of an ageing population, and not killing 33K people a year (USA+CA) in traffic accidents is sleepwalking into a state of total control.
seanmcdirmid 11y ago
Actually, the USA isn't where self driving cars will probably become popular first. It's the developing world, like China, that lacks the road infrastructure of the west. Self driving cars are a much cheaper way of optimizing fewer roads to do more. And an authoritarian government like China can mandate them (e.g, in a city like Beijing with serious congestion and pollution problems, and already a huge fleet of taxis).
- Zigurd 11y ago
  That's an interesting proposition. Beijing traffic already consists of a high proportion of busses at peak times. Automating that will help, but maybe not transformatiional. The greater advantage for China is how willing they are to push products into the market without knowing if they will succeed. Ready! Fire! Aim! is a powerful framework for finding the real answer when all else is speculation.

by m0nty 11y ago

ghaff 11y ago

If they were commercially available as door-to-door vehicles without a human driver needed across broad areas of the US, I think it's fair to say that people would swarm to buy them. And I suspect enough of the secret sauce will be in software that I doubt if cost will be the main stumbling block even if techs appear first in luxury vehicles (as is the case with assistive driving features). The bigger question is what realistic timeframe we're looking at. I know smart people who go on about exponential progress and all that think we're talking 10 years. I've also listened to researchers in this area who think it's 50+ years and IMO they're probably closer. The challenge is that accurately mapped streets only get you so far and there are a lot of real world situations a car would need to be able to handle that are well beyond the current level of tech.

Ensorceled 11y ago
The self driving car doesn't need to be able to handle things like the dirt road to my parents place to be a success for the vast majority of people.
- ghaff 11y ago
  I agree. But it does need to handle a significant portion of the paved road network, in a variety of weather conditions, and deal at least somewhat gracefully with construction zones and accidents. Even self-driving just on freeways would be useful but at that point it's primarily a convenience feature rather than something enabling significantly different uses of cars.

Ensorceled 11y ago

Self driving cars will create a virtuous cycle, ageing drivers who lose their licenses will be forced to buy them to stay mobile, this availability will decrease police/insurance/legislative tolerance of poor driving which will increase the number of drivers required to buy them. The boomers are going to make this happen. People won't "buy" self driving cars, they will briefly borrow them from ZipCar, Uber or Ford. The younger generation as a whole is much less interested in learning to drive or purchase a car. They will also be pushing to make this happen.

theklub 11y ago
And thus we continue to sleepwalk into a state of total control.
- Ensorceled 11y ago
  Not sure how preferences for mass transit, longer independence of an ageing population, and not killing 33K people a year (USA+CA) in traffic accidents is sleepwalking into a state of total control.

seanmcdirmid 11y ago

Actually, the USA isn't where self driving cars will probably become popular first. It's the developing world, like China, that lacks the road infrastructure of the west. Self driving cars are a much cheaper way of optimizing fewer roads to do more. And an authoritarian government like China can mandate them (e.g, in a city like Beijing with serious congestion and pollution problems, and already a huge fleet of taxis).

Zigurd 11y ago
That's an interesting proposition. Beijing traffic already consists of a high proportion of busses at peak times. Automating that will help, but maybe not transformatiional. The greater advantage for China is how willing they are to push products into the market without knowing if they will succeed. Ready! Fire! Aim! is a powerful framework for finding the real answer when all else is speculation.