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Death Rates Rising for Middle-Aged White Americans
- SHIT_TALKER 11y agoThe mortality rate for whites 45 to 54 years old with no more than a high school education increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people from 1999 to 2014. This should surprise no one. These are the people who work marginal jobs and they have been the most affected by so much manufacturing moving offshore, the resultant shift to service sector employment, and the downward push on service wages created by massive immigration of unskilled South American workers. (Not to mention the political and social demonization of this cohort.)
- vfrogger 11y agoI don't think you can tie this to economics alone. After all, blacks and hispanics have been feeling the economic pressures as well. Suicide, drug use, and alcoholism have deeper cultural ties. I have no idea what those ties are, but it likely won't be fixed by a 4% annual increase in wages. I can't help but wonder if perhaps this increase in self destructive behavior is due to an increase in secularism. Blacks and Hispanics are more religious than whites, and with that religiosity comes greater church attendance which likely brings greater community support (a generalization, I know, but I'm guessing that this is probably more true than not).
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- maxerickson 11y agoComparing the numbers here: http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2013-Demographics-Report.pdf http://download.militaryonesource.mil/12038/MOS/Reports/2013... to the US in general: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_Sta... The military has a slightly higher percentage of whites than the general population (and much higher percentage of males). Not quite the right age group, but I wonder how military service factors in.
- SHIT_TALKER 11y agoI don't think you can tie this to economics alone. After all, blacks and hispanics have been feeling the economic pressures as well. You have to be standing up to be knocked down.
- vfrogger 11y agoI don't know, I remember seeing that Blacks and Hispanics were hit the hardest during the recession. I found an article about this: http://business.time.com/2011/07/26/great-recession-drives-financial-wedge-between-whites-minorities/ http://business.time.com/2011/07/26/great-recession-drives-f...
- djtriptych 11y agoPlease tell me you're under 25 y/o
- vfrogger 11y agoBecause I'm suggesting that there might be less community support today than in the past because fewer people today attend church which historically has been a major source of social interaction within a community? I fail to see how this is a ridiculous hypothesis. It might not be true, but ridiculing someone for their hypothesis instead of addressing the hypothesis itself doesn't speak well to your own level of maturity.
- djtriptych 11y agoSo what about the millions of years of human social interaction before church?
- vfrogger 11y agoI fail to see how our primate ancestors ability to socialize outside of church somehow disproves that removing a large social component in modern American life could lead to less social support.
- vfrogger 11y agoI just did a quick google search on church affiliation and suicide rates (to bring this back to the original article and my hypothesis), here's an interesting study published in the American Journal of Psychiatry on the topic: http://ajp.psychiatryonline.org/doi/full/10.1176/appi.ajp.161.12.2303 http://ajp.psychiatryonline.org/doi/full/10.1176/appi.ajp.16... So at least one study seems to support the hypothesis (interesting that it also showed increased substance abuse, which was also discussed as one of the culprit's of the higher death rate for white men).
- djtriptych 11y ago
- awl130 11y agoGood theory but the same cohort in Europe has not seen the same Effect despite even higher secularization
- vfrogger 11y agoI don't know, I don't believe Europe is really doing a bang up job of preventing suicide either, but I will admit that I don't know much about the situation, I'm just hypothesizing.
- dredmorbius 11y agoI don't know about recent trends, but I've been looking at mortality trends from the 19th century onward, and one point I _did_ key on was that from about 1960-1970 onward, white males and females saw relatively little increase in life expectancy, though black and minority experiences improved. These had lagged whites by 10-15 years, so there was a lot to make up for. One possibility is that we're seeing a confluence of trends: continued improvements in minority life expectency due to better service and access, but still making up for past deficiencies. While whites are being hit by the leading edge of both decreased access and falling economic opportunity.
- jmorphy88 11y agoNot to mention the incessant drumbeat emanating from all major media organs, academia, popular culture, and other opinion-makers around the world that your identity is stained with evil, that you are responsible for the misfortunes of all peoples everywhere, that you are undeserving of having an identity and a country of your own, and you can only atone for your wickedness by endless prostration and disenfranchisement.
- draw_down 11y agoHmm, I see what you mean but not sure why this would hit whites in particular.
- mirimir 11y agoMaybe because they expected more, based on their parents' experience.
- rhizome 11y agoThere's tons of jobs out there for people with only a high school diploma. "Web Developer" is one of them.
- briholt 11y agoGenuine question: have you ever heard of an uneducated, fifty-year-old unemployed factory worker becoming a successful web developer? Maybe there are a tiny number, but I've never heard of such a thing. Re-educating fifty-year-olds into complete new fields on any mass scale is just not realistic. We're talking about millions of people that have minimal math skills, mediocre writing skills, and no computer skills. Even if we figure out a way to make older brains learn so much new information, it would take years just to catch them up to a college-ready HS diploma.
- djabatt 11y agoYour point is totally solid. Btw Web Developers today will on day be the auto worker of yesterday. It's cycle that capitalists systems follow. Reduce head count to boost profitability and stock performance. You do this by automation, productivity enhancements in supply chain and outsourcing. Replacing people with shell scripts is going to be a big part of what AI with do for low and high tech worker. A lot of programmers may find out how harsh capital markets feel in tight labor market. Retraining the US worker is not a sustainable prospect. So many middle age workers will find it more ugly and difficult to survive. This NYtimes article is particularly difficult to read because I know how bleak it is for many of these fallen men. In a nutshell it sucks. The US social network for such people tends to be an Ann Rand novel followed with an empty: sorry buddy. Good luck with that.
- xacaxulu 11y agoThey already are the new auto workers, just without unions. Look at the downward pressure on wages, pop up hacker schools everywhere and a move for everyone to learn how to code (i.e. write CRUD apps). Basic web developers are in the crosshairs.
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- browseatwork 11y agoIt would be interesting to see this broken down by gender. My hunch is it's hitting men harder, but I'm curious if that's reflected in the data.
- Alex3917 11y agoI did an analysis a couple years ago and found that drug misuse kills about a third of Americans. Possibly even more if you include the new study that found that the surgeon general's report is undercounting tobacco deaths by 80k per year or whatever, which I didn't because that wasn't out at the time. http://alexkrupp.typepad.com/sensemaking/2014/05/the-one-statistic-you-never-hear-about-drugs.html http://alexkrupp.typepad.com/sensemaking/2014/05/the-one-sta... http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1407211#abstract http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1407211#abstract
- danieltillett 11y agoAlex interesting post, but I would not put too much value in the ADR numbers. Getting accurate information on the cause of death due to ADR is not easy given death in hospital rarely has a single cause.
- artur_makly 11y ago"Visit some formerly middle class suburbs of cities in the Midwest and you can see exactly why this is happening. No decent jobs, no social clubs, no children playing outside, sports tickets out of the budget of anyone but the 1%, no decent restaurants and obesity everywhere. Add decayed infrastructure and empty malls. You should see it. Horrific. " "These sad statistics should come as no surprise given the pummeling the middle class has taken since 1980. As middle-aged, white males have been fired wholesale by the tens of thousands, battling years of constant unemployment with few or no resources, they have literally reached the end of their means. Broken men are unable to escape from hearing everyday how the executives of their ex-employers are reaping massive profits and personal gains. Their lives are overlaid with exhausted savings and unemployment benefits; all the negatives in their lives beat down on their heads like a ceaseless hailstorm. Finally, swallowing their pride, they turn to the caring myth of family and friends only to find them replaced with the harsh reality of indifferent relatives and unhelpful acquaintances. Too young for Social Security and too old for today's employment prejudices, the unloved and unemployed white males have few options. " [nytimes comments]
- mud_dauber 11y agoAs soon as I saw this comment, my first thought was "Holy crap. That sounds like Russia."
- krasin 11y agoIt's indeed very similar to the description of the contemporary rural Russia (excluding the suburbs of Moscow, and few other large cities). There's one important difference: there's no free public health care in the US. Not that it's great in Russia, but the US has none. :(
- sologoub 11y agoThat's not entirely true. Hospitals here are not allowed to turn away those in need, even if they have no insurance. The stays usually turn into uncollectible debts for the hospitals. With obamacare (Affordable Healthcare Act), the free options have been expanded quite a bit. In CA, the medi-cal is basically universally available to low income ($16,105 or under for 1 person, $21k or under for 2 person housefolds). For Russia, if really depends how lucky you get with the doctors or how much you can pay. For much of the system there, people would be better off if it didn't exist. Speaking from personal experience.
- shams93 11y agoSpeaking from experience Im 43 years old but been rejected by women my entire life in LA for being a "white guy" its certainly depressing that no matter how well you do you have to spend your entire life alone have to be ignorant of sexuality because its cut off from you , theres never any reward for my efforts no matter how well i do only puniahment for being born the wrong ethnicity.
- reddytowns 11y agoLeave the country, you'll do much better in that area.
- ballsohardy 11y agolol if you can't get laid as a white guy you are doing it wrong
- smt88 11y ago> for being a "white guy" I am 100% certain that you have not only been rejected for being a white guy. White people are the most sought-after race in the United States[1], partially because most people seek partners of the same race. Furthermore, the language you're using is deeply concerning. Women aren't a "reward" for your efforts. Failing to find a sexual partner is not a "punishment". No one owes you sex, and there isn't a grand design that's keeping you from finding someone to have sex with. I think it's very important for you to seek counseling or the support of a therapist. They'll be able to help you learn how to start and maintain a romantic relationship. There's always hope. 1. http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/race-attraction-2009-2014/ http://blog.okcupid.com/index.php/race-attraction-2009-2014/
- dropit_sphere 11y agohttp://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/31/radicalizing-the-romanceless/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2014/08/31/radicalizing-the-romanc...
- smt88 11y ago
- littletimmy 11y agoYou'll never see a black activist or feminist show solidarity with these poor middle-aged white people. The greatest success of capitalism has been dividing people along gender and race lines - not letting them show any class solidarity. If people did, they'd realize that the difference between a poor white and a poor black is a rounding error compared to the difference between a poor guy and a rich guy.
- zeckalpha 11y ago"Nobody's free until everybody's free."
- scarmig 11y agoIt's much more complicated than that--how shitty a situation is for someone is highly contextual, and you can't make absolute statements about who has it worse, since so much depends on particular circumstances. It is fair to ask why in recent years movements and media have focused more on race- and gender- based solidarities over class-based solidarity, compared to a century ago. And a strong argument can be made that Capital is the primary nexus of power in the world, and in the end it really doesn't care that much about safeguarding patriarchy or white supremacy. Hell, breaking down those barriers often just generates new grit to be thrown to the mill, so it's commonly profitable to break them down. It's much lower hanging fruit (though still fruit that's worthy of harvesting), so people focus on them more. Along the same lines, our educational and media systems have given us the imagination to envision a world where racism and sexism don't exist. Not that they're easily achievable, but it seems almost natural that a century or two from now they'll be gone. But social and economic class? They seem as immobile as Mt Everest. ETA: Also, I think you're doing a disservice by writing off black activists and feminists. Obviously every person has limited perspectives, but you're just trying to pick a fight that doesn't need to be picked. Never pre-emptively write off a potential ally.
- baxterross 11y agoNot sure how you tied capitalism into that
- cup 11y agoWhy would they, black people face a life time of unparalleled discrimination that white people won't ever experience. The difference between a poor white guy and a poor black guy is that the poor black guy lives in a system where they've suffered generations of sustained oppression and subjugation. I'm baffled at how you made this a race issue.
- zeckalpha 11y agoIs this a case of Simpson's paradox?
- nostrademons 11y agoDon't think so. Simpson's paradox applies when you have two groups and independently rates of your variable are increasing within both, but the population of the lesser group is increasing faster. For example, if death rates for both whites and blacks were decreasing but blacks had a higher death rate, and the population of blacks was increasing, you would see overall death rates increasing. If death rates for both uneducated & college-educated white Americans were increasing but there were an increasing number of college-educated white Americans, you would see death rates decrease. Neither of those seem to be the case here: it's just one group who, tragically, is killing themselves or self-medicating to death disturbingly frequently.
- niels_olson 11y agoNaked capitalism has found a way to thin the herd more efficiently than the Jonathan Swift ever imagined. A modest proposal indeed. Unrelated: the top NYT comments are better than HN. Sad day.
- vixen99 11y agoWhat is naked capitalism as against, for instance, naked socialism? And how germane is all to this to the topic? Or is it just hand waving according to predilection?
- niels_olson 11y agoWould you like it better if it said "pure capitalism"? Or "capitalism and only capitalism"?
- adamwong246 11y agoHappiness is reality minus expectations. Guess who had the highest expectations? White guys.
- marincounty 11y agoMaybe my math is wrong, but the raising rate is .134 percent? I'm in that group of guys now. I sometimes wonder if white males are getting enough vitamin D. I never really gave it much thought, until I saw a friend's blood work-up. His doctor is routinely checking his level of vitamin D. I just chalked it up to his good insurance plan. I know I don't get the amount of sunshine my father got. My father always had a tan, and made sure to get outside as much as possible. I, on the other hand, spend too much time looking into a screen. Maybe I'll get a few more years in because I have exercised, but it's been at night for years. Depressing. Sometimes the Internet is really depressing.
- draven 11y agoThe death rate "increased by 134 deaths per 100,000 people from 1999 to 2014". Without the starting point (the death rate in 1999) we can't know the raising rate. If there were 268 deaths per 100,000 people in 1999 that would be a 50% increase for example.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- wyclif 11y agoAgeism still seems to be very much in play in technology, and a trap to avoid for middle-aged, skilled white men: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/02/google-ageism-and-the-business-of-plastic-surgery.aspx http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/02/google-agei... This guy had eyelid surgery, shaved his head, and got a pair of Converse "Chucks" to look younger because he was worried about jobs (previous HN submission): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/us-valley-ageism-idUSBRE8AQ0JK20121127 http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/27/us-valley-ageism-i... "Don't hire anyone over 30": http://anewdomain.net/2014/12/11/dont-hire-anyone-30-ageism-silicon-valley/ http://anewdomain.net/2014/12/11/dont-hire-anyone-30-ageism-...
- ak39 11y agoThanks for the links. This from the last link: "To walk the streets of Austin during tech’s biggest annual confab, South by Southwest Interactive, is to experience a society where Boomers and Gen Xers have vanished into a black hole. Photos of those open-space offices favored by start-ups document workplaces where people over 35 are as scarce as women on the streets of Kandahar." At least made me chuckle against the backdrop of an otherwise serious topic. Well-written piece.
- DanielBMarkham 11y agoThis is funny. Also funny -- I worked in Austin in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Looked the same then. When I was stressed out one evening, I joked with my wife that I was tempted to run over a few of the yuppies. With so many, who would miss a few? So wonder where all those guys went? On a related note, this weekend might be a good time to re-watch Logan's Run.
- wyclif 11y agoSorry, I won't be at Carousel tonight. It's my Love-Shop turn.
- AlexB138 11y agoI may be projecting, but I feel like this is a symptom of our deteriorating middle class. White, now middle aged, men have been hit over and over by free trade, out sourcing and cheap immigrant labor suppressing labor value. Now they're beaten and broken. I've worked with these people and seen it first hand. In my anecdotal experience, depression and drug use isn't just a common case with working class whites, it's nearly the majority. These people know they've been abandoned by society, and a lot of them are just giving up. They're people who have put in 60 hour weeks of hard labor, with little to no health care, for decades and have next to nothing to show for it, and no hope of things improving.
- xacaxulu 11y agoI'm in my 30s, male and ostensibly white by American standards and I've been watching these sorts of trends for a while. Distrust in our certain brand of capitalism has led me to regard America with a wary eye. It has influenced a lot of my life decisions, i.e. stack cash, stay mobile/agile, no spouse, no children, etc. so that I can continually pursue the best jobs no matter when/where they appear. I luckily was able to obtain an EU passport recently via my mother, giving me a few extra countries as potential markets for work but mostly as a hedge against a (probably) meaningless 401k or just the general depressive idea of eventually being an older person in the US. Basically I'll spend my good years putting money away, and as soon as I'm sick (read, need healthcare) or ready to retire, I'll bounce back to the mother country where retirement actually looks like living rather than dying.
- ageek123 11y agoI guess you haven't looked to carefully into how the EU economies are doing.
- tomp 11y agoDon't worry about that, we might not have amazing growth, but the actual living standards are still amazing in the EU (specifically, Slovenia). If it changes soon (hopefully not), it's more likely to be because of the influx of immigrants/refugees, not because pf the economy.
- nikanj 11y agoThere's some similarities to Japan here, their economy is a disaster but they live long, have excellent health, decent purchasing power, low tuitions and incredibly low crime rates.
- sanoli 11y agoThe economies aren't doing good, so you count off the low-crime, free healthcare, good free education, cheap housing altogether?
- Someone 11y agoSide note: looking at the color choice in figure 3 (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/10/29/1518393112.full.pdf http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/10/29/1518393112.full...): "Census regions are Northeast (blue), Midwest (red), South (black), and West (green)." I think they were picked manually. On the one hand, I think picking that makes them more memorable, on the other hand, it surprises me that people in the politically hypercorrect USA would pick those colors this way.
- DanielBMarkham 11y agoI must be missing this. I read the article carefully and scanned the comments here. Looks like FUD-bait to me. This is how I would write the article (and this is probably all there is to the article) Over the past 15 years, death rates for whites per 100,000 people aged 45–54 remained basically the same, with the natural increase lifespan being offset by increases in both suicide and alcohol/drug issues. This difference is statistically significant, but it is on the order of 1 or 2 extra deaths per thousand people for their lives from 45-54. It is highly unusual for death rates to change like that. The last great change in the west of this magnitude was with the introduction of HIV/AIDS. For context, the average middle class white american would experience the same increase in risk if they took up canoeing over the same period. But maybe I missed it. I got a graph where one line stays the same where others decline, and I got a graph where risk increases for a couple causes of death by a very small amount (out of dozens not listed) Also I have approximately 50 comments lamenting the rise of third world conditions in places like Peoria and the death of all things good and decent in the USA. I believe if a little more context was provided by the news outlet in this case, perhaps our comments would be more aligned with the actual impact of the news being reported.