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My math going back five years says it hasn't been 16% by a decent margin? Wouldn't P/E be a better heuristic? Either CAPE or just basic P/E?
by arielweisberg 11y ago
My math going back five years says it hasn't been 16% by a decent margin?
Wouldn't P/E be a better heuristic? Either CAPE or just basic P/E?
- trjordan 11y agoI've got some serious end point bias going on, but the bottom was ~700 in March '09, and it's currently at 2,100. Triple in that time is actually 18% annualized (6.5th root of 3). There's definitely better ways of measuring "are we near a top", but "length of bull market" isn't meaningless. There have been a few longer ones, and only one ('49 - '61) that was nearly this productive at the 7 year mark. http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/17/bull-markets-since-1871-duration-and-magnitude/ http://greenbackd.com/2013/04/17/bull-markets-since-1871-dur...