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> Federal Reserve officials hoped wages would begin rising at today’s 5.1 percent, but economists are increasingly saying the rate might need to fall to 4.9 per
by edoloughlin 11y ago
> Federal Reserve officials hoped wages would begin rising at today’s 5.1 percent, but economists are increasingly saying the rate might need to fall to 4.9 percent or lower to push wages higher
Whenever I read something like this I have to wonder: do these economists have a server farm running models to backup statements like this or do they just pull it out of their asses?
- polskibus 11y agoThey pull it out of a simple linear model in Excel . just an educated guess based on my occasional economics study.
- mtw 11y agoI wonder if deep learning could be more accurate for this kind of problem
- Kliment 11y agoProbably but the conversion rate between expert recommendations and policy is already so abysmal it's probably not worth it.
- thomasahle 11y agoFrom talking to economic grad students, it appears hard to obtain enough data for typical machine learning approaches. Basically all parameters end up being set from "theory" and "intuition"
- davmre 11y agoDeep learning works well when you have a ton of data and don't care about interpreting the parameters of your model. My understanding is this is pretty much the opposite of the typical situation in econ research.
- gaius 11y agoWell I don't know about the Fed but this is how we do it in England https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONIAC_Computer https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MONIAC_Computer
- marcosdumay 11y agoThe best part is that economists always use 2 significative algarisms. And then, when reality sets down it's not rare that they are wrong by an order of magnitude or signal. (No, what it rare is them getting the most significative algarism right.) No, nowadays I'm going for the explanation that those numbers are dishonest at their inception, and are just formated on the way that will decieve the biggest number of people.