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>4. Solar is expected to reach a load defection point (i.e. cheaper to leave the grid) in most places in the next 10-15 years[4]. How can it be cheaper to leav

>4. Solar is expected to reach a load defection point (i.e. cheaper to leave the grid) in most places in the next 10-15 years[4]. How can it be cheaper to leave the grid? Won't energy storage be much cheaper if it is done on scale by buy and selling energy as required and letting utility companies figure out energy storage and load balancing?

jussij 11y ago
Here in Australia we have one of the highest per capita uptakes of household solar panels in the world. At some point during the day, most of those households produce excess power and that power is sold back into the grid. But because there is so much power being generated, the householder is only paid a fraction of the equivalent price of extracting an equivalent amount of electricity from the grid. At present those householders have no choice but to put up with that dud deal, as they have no where else to put that excess power. But move on a few years when battery technology starts to take off and battery prices come down, that will change. When that happens, total household electricity costs will be coming down and they will be one very big step closer to being off grid.
- skrause 11y ago
  I don't know how it works in other countries, but here in Germany you basically have two fees: First there is the "connection fee", so you pay around 5 to 10 dollars monthly just to be connected to the grid even if you use no power. On top of that is the actual usage fee per kWh. I guess when more and more people generate their own power the connection fee will eventually increase while the usage fee decreases. So even if you have an average usage of 0 kWh per month because of solar panels you'll pay the grid just to be your battery to buffer the peaks and give back power at night. And I think that's actually fair. If you don't want that high connection fee you'll need to buy your down battery and disconnect completely.
- marcosdumay 11y ago
  Big batteries will always be cheaper and more reliable than small ones. There may come a day where the difference is so small to not matter anymore, but people won't disconnect from a competitively priced grid before that. There are plenty of entities consuming energy during the day, it's just a matter of adapting the generating infrastructure. Anyway, and answering lumberjack's question, I'm yet to see a competitively priced grid. It's a natural monopoly, normally maintained by either an expensive government bureaucracy, or a private company whose main goal is to extract big rents. At this environment, I'd expect houses to organize into largish units that share batteries, if the government allows, or just get enough batteries for themselves.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    > but people won't disconnect from a competitively priced grid before that. > At this environment, I'd expect houses to organize into largish units that share batteries, if the government allows, or just get enough batteries for themselves. This is exactly what's happening in Hawaii right now. Because power is so expensive due to petroleum used to generate power, it is cheaper to go off the grid entirely with your own batteries than to wait for the utility to approve your grid tied solar system.
- twunde 11y ago
  Texas had (has?) a similar problem with wind energy. The utilities were actually paying for people to use the energy. Batteries are the game changer for solar and wind since on-peak, off-peak will have less dramatic differences
- detritus 11y ago
  If a low expectation of profit from excess generation is to become expected, we could do with a smart way to dump excess energy into cooling or heating reservoirs, either on a unit or local scale. pipe dream
- fian 11y ago
  The flipside to the dud deal you claim these solar owning householders get is that they are not paying their full share for the grid connectivity that they need to sell their excess electricity into. The majority of the cost of retail electricity is the maintenance of the transmission network (>50%) (poles and wires)[1], with metering/billing being the next highest contributor (<20%). The cost of generation is around 20%. Many of these householders with solar are paying very little or nothing for their grid connection. Thus they are being subsidised by the non-solar households for their ability to stay grid connected. Household level batteries could change that scenario if they are good enough to allow complete disconnection from the grid. If household level batteries are successful, then we will reach a point where it will not be economically viable to maintain the grid. Every house will then need to become self sufficient for electricity generation and storage. [1] https://www.dews.qld.gov.au/energy-water-home/electricity/prices/tariffs-explained https://www.dews.qld.gov.au/energy-water-home/electricity/pr...
  - jussij 11y ago
    > The majority of the cost of retail electricity is the maintenance of the transmission network I can't speak for the rest of the world, but here in Australia that's just not true, since the utility companies have a tendency to "gold plate" those grids. Here are some detail: http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldplating-the-power-grid-20120705-21iv5.html http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldplating-the-power-grid-20... When governments sold the grid to private enterprise they also allowed them to "gold plate" their systems and pass on the costs to the consumer. The result was massive increases in electricity prices. What those utility companies got wrong was thinking the consumer was a captive audience and would put up with those rip off prices. Those massive increases in electricity prices actually made solar an option, hence the massive addition rate in roof top solar here in Australia. What those utility companies have got wrong is the genie is now out of the bottle.
epistasis 11y ago
If a utility has invested large fixed costs in a long-term investment, then their prices may be a bit inflexible for the foreseeable future. A classic example would be nuclear, which has a huge upfront cost, but then cheap running costs for 60 years.
ianferrel 11y ago
Utilities are often heavily regulated, with large fixed costs and legal requirements to serve many customers with the same price structure. Some of those customers are going to be better served by doing something else. As the price of solar and local storage goes down compared to the legacy cost structure of utilities, it can make more sense for more of those customers to leave.

jussij 11y ago

Here in Australia we have one of the highest per capita uptakes of household solar panels in the world. At some point during the day, most of those households produce excess power and that power is sold back into the grid. But because there is so much power being generated, the householder is only paid a fraction of the equivalent price of extracting an equivalent amount of electricity from the grid. At present those householders have no choice but to put up with that dud deal, as they have no where else to put that excess power. But move on a few years when battery technology starts to take off and battery prices come down, that will change. When that happens, total household electricity costs will be coming down and they will be one very big step closer to being off grid.

skrause 11y ago
I don't know how it works in other countries, but here in Germany you basically have two fees: First there is the "connection fee", so you pay around 5 to 10 dollars monthly just to be connected to the grid even if you use no power. On top of that is the actual usage fee per kWh. I guess when more and more people generate their own power the connection fee will eventually increase while the usage fee decreases. So even if you have an average usage of 0 kWh per month because of solar panels you'll pay the grid just to be your battery to buffer the peaks and give back power at night. And I think that's actually fair. If you don't want that high connection fee you'll need to buy your down battery and disconnect completely.
marcosdumay 11y ago
Big batteries will always be cheaper and more reliable than small ones. There may come a day where the difference is so small to not matter anymore, but people won't disconnect from a competitively priced grid before that. There are plenty of entities consuming energy during the day, it's just a matter of adapting the generating infrastructure. Anyway, and answering lumberjack's question, I'm yet to see a competitively priced grid. It's a natural monopoly, normally maintained by either an expensive government bureaucracy, or a private company whose main goal is to extract big rents. At this environment, I'd expect houses to organize into largish units that share batteries, if the government allows, or just get enough batteries for themselves.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  > but people won't disconnect from a competitively priced grid before that. > At this environment, I'd expect houses to organize into largish units that share batteries, if the government allows, or just get enough batteries for themselves. This is exactly what's happening in Hawaii right now. Because power is so expensive due to petroleum used to generate power, it is cheaper to go off the grid entirely with your own batteries than to wait for the utility to approve your grid tied solar system.
twunde 11y ago
Texas had (has?) a similar problem with wind energy. The utilities were actually paying for people to use the energy. Batteries are the game changer for solar and wind since on-peak, off-peak will have less dramatic differences
detritus 11y ago
If a low expectation of profit from excess generation is to become expected, we could do with a smart way to dump excess energy into cooling or heating reservoirs, either on a unit or local scale. pipe dream
fian 11y ago
The flipside to the dud deal you claim these solar owning householders get is that they are not paying their full share for the grid connectivity that they need to sell their excess electricity into. The majority of the cost of retail electricity is the maintenance of the transmission network (>50%) (poles and wires)[1], with metering/billing being the next highest contributor (<20%). The cost of generation is around 20%. Many of these householders with solar are paying very little or nothing for their grid connection. Thus they are being subsidised by the non-solar households for their ability to stay grid connected. Household level batteries could change that scenario if they are good enough to allow complete disconnection from the grid. If household level batteries are successful, then we will reach a point where it will not be economically viable to maintain the grid. Every house will then need to become self sufficient for electricity generation and storage. [1] https://www.dews.qld.gov.au/energy-water-home/electricity/prices/tariffs-explained https://www.dews.qld.gov.au/energy-water-home/electricity/pr...
- jussij 11y ago
  > The majority of the cost of retail electricity is the maintenance of the transmission network I can't speak for the rest of the world, but here in Australia that's just not true, since the utility companies have a tendency to "gold plate" those grids. Here are some detail: http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldplating-the-power-grid-20120705-21iv5.html http://www.smh.com.au/business/goldplating-the-power-grid-20... When governments sold the grid to private enterprise they also allowed them to "gold plate" their systems and pass on the costs to the consumer. The result was massive increases in electricity prices. What those utility companies got wrong was thinking the consumer was a captive audience and would put up with those rip off prices. Those massive increases in electricity prices actually made solar an option, hence the massive addition rate in roof top solar here in Australia. What those utility companies have got wrong is the genie is now out of the bottle.

epistasis 11y ago

If a utility has invested large fixed costs in a long-term investment, then their prices may be a bit inflexible for the foreseeable future. A classic example would be nuclear, which has a huge upfront cost, but then cheap running costs for 60 years.

ianferrel 11y ago

Utilities are often heavily regulated, with large fixed costs and legal requirements to serve many customers with the same price structure. Some of those customers are going to be better served by doing something else. As the price of solar and local storage goes down compared to the legacy cost structure of utilities, it can make more sense for more of those customers to leave.