3 ms·

Brace yourselves for the onslaught of negative comments. I can't wait for the statistical analysis to be trashed.

• oneJob 11y ago
  Even if statistical analysis checks out, the premise seems to be all wrong. Speaking generally now. I rarely read HN comments as having predictive intentions, but rather constructive (or not) criticism on things as they stand. Listening to criticism (i.e. negative feedback) about your product can be the difference between an amazing product and a mediocre products with a slow, drawn out fading into mediocre land.
• pjc50 11y ago
  Well, they started out by picking successes. A more valid approach would be to list all startup ideas mentioned on HN and see how they turned out. That includes every acquishutdown mentioned. But that's vulnerable in the other direction. If 90% of startups fail, it's very easy to predict failure. An interesting non-statistical inquiry would be to look at the problems people are complaining about and seeing whether they're still present in the successful projects (e.g. dropbox privacy).
  • bachmeier 11y ago
    Homejoy is in the article but is no longer in business.[1] So I'm not sure if the point is that there weren't enough negative comments on their launch. [1] http://blog.homejoy.com/homejoy-says-goodbye/ http://blog.homejoy.com/homejoy-says-goodbye/