4 ms·

Agreed, but the Monty Hall problem wouldn't make sense (at least from the game show perspective) if Monty's selection were random. If his selection were random,

by adevine 11y ago

Agreed, but the Monty Hall problem wouldn't make sense (at least from the game show perspective) if Monty's selection were random. If his selection were random, and he picked the car, it would just be "OK, I randomly decided to pick a door, and look, it's the car. Congratulations, game over."

baddox 11y ago
Yeah, there really isn't any way to implement that version of the Monty Hall problem in the real world. You could say that Monty Hall randomly picks a door, and if he picks the winning door, that round of the game is aborted and you (the contestant) are given a drug that makes you forget that round ever happened. The rounds continue until Monty Hall happens to reveal a losing door, and that's the only one you will ever remember. This is so detached from normal events in life that the paradoxical nature is much less impactful, so it's nowhere near as enticing of a thought experiment. It is, however, similar (equivalent, methinks) to the "God's Coin Toss" problem, which is also popular and which also has gotten some attention on Hacker News: http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec17.html http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec17.html
- dllthomas 11y ago
  Eh, the math works out the same whatever is done in the case of him revealing a car. Reasonable options seem to include: 1) contestant wins (notion being the contestant retains the option to switch to any door, and now knows where the car is) 2) contestant loses (notion being Monty picked right and "won" in place of the contestant) 3) Round is aborted, things are repositioned, and the round is replayed (doesn't require any drugging, aborted rounds may or may not be aired but player learned nothing relevant to future rounds).
dekhn 11y ago
In retrospect, I understand this. I suspect part of the point of the puzzle is to force people to intuit this aspect.

by adevine 11y ago

baddox 11y ago

Yeah, there really isn't any way to implement that version of the Monty Hall problem in the real world. You could say that Monty Hall randomly picks a door, and if he picks the winning door, that round of the game is aborted and you (the contestant) are given a drug that makes you forget that round ever happened. The rounds continue until Monty Hall happens to reveal a losing door, and that's the only one you will ever remember. This is so detached from normal events in life that the paradoxical nature is much less impactful, so it's nowhere near as enticing of a thought experiment. It is, however, similar (equivalent, methinks) to the "God's Coin Toss" problem, which is also popular and which also has gotten some attention on Hacker News: http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec17.html http://www.scottaaronson.com/democritus/lec17.html

dllthomas 11y ago
Eh, the math works out the same whatever is done in the case of him revealing a car. Reasonable options seem to include: 1) contestant wins (notion being the contestant retains the option to switch to any door, and now knows where the car is) 2) contestant loses (notion being Monty picked right and "won" in place of the contestant) 3) Round is aborted, things are repositioned, and the round is replayed (doesn't require any drugging, aborted rounds may or may not be aired but player learned nothing relevant to future rounds).

dekhn 11y ago

In retrospect, I understand this. I suspect part of the point of the puzzle is to force people to intuit this aspect.