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Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to
by diego 11y ago
Why would self-driving cars reduce traffic congestion? If my car drove itself, I'd be less incentivized to use public transportation. I'd probably be willing to put up with a slightly longer door-to-door time than if I used public transportation because it would be more convenient: I'd rather surf the web in my own car than have to pay attention to stops, schedules, transfers, etc. Congestion would probably be different: it would be less stop-and-go and more uniformly slow speeds.
- irixusr 11y agoBecause they could be better drivers. For example a "perfect" driver communicating with one in front of him could, eventually, tailgate with an inch at much higher speeds. If we approximate (for arguments sake) traffic as a fluid, by bernoulli's principal there will be more capacity for a given lane. Said in another way, if the car can get there quickly it'll be off the streets sooner and another one will take its spot. Also a "perfect" driver wouldn't make the stupid mistakes ppl do all the time, the most annoying one staring at gory accidents. And even accidents wouldn't occur as often. But this all assumes that the AI gets even more sophisticated.
- refurb 11y agoI guess it all depends on how much more capacity self-driving cars produce AND the increase in demand for self-driving cars. I'm more in the camp of the GP. I think a big reason why people live close to work, take public transit and go without a car are all the things the GP described. Take those away and suddenly using your self-driving car to commute doesn't sound so bad. That equals a HUGE increase in car demand.
- ctz 11y agoYou're covering the available efficiencies in the use of existing road network capacity, and assuming that demand is static. In fact, I think that if car ownership is cheaper, journeys can be made by anybody, and the experience is less stressful, many more people will travel by car. I wouldn't be at all surprised if autonomous cars produce even worse congestion than today.
- maxerickson 11y agoThey will be networked, making demand pricing easy. So congestion becomes a political choice (if people refuse demand tolls in the name of fairness...).
- irixusr 11y agoWell that's the theory. What ends up happening is always up in the air. I did read somewhere that the average "commute" has stayed constant throughout history - about 45 min - be it walking, omnibus, trolley or car. So you're probably right, things will shift to fill up the free time
- marcosdumay 11y agoPeople that are too defensive on transit tend to cause congestion, not avoid it. Of course, that's dependent of the streets being full of people a bit more violent, but until we have all cars driving themselves, that condition will be true, what may take decades. Also, if the car is self-driving, people will be want to make more trips. For example, if we send their cars back home once they got to work, we'll save on parking, but get more congestion. I'd love to automatically send my car to a mechanic when needed, what's also more congestion... I'm sure people will find lots of good reasons for sending their cars around. Anyway, what will probably reduce congestion is a smart bus system. Imagine a small bus that takes you door to door, and takes only slightly more time to get there than your own car, but is way cheaper. I've seen that on the news just recently, I think it's Japan trying it.
- collyw 11y ago>People that are too defensive on transit tend to cause congestion, not avoid it. Have you any proof of that? I would guess that both "agressive" and "defensive" drivers cause problems in different ways. For example when I am waiting at a pedestrian crossing to cross, if a driver comes up fast and brakes hard close to the stop I won't start walking until I am sure he is stopping. If another driver slows down well in advance it indicates to me that he is inteding to stop, I'll start crossing earlier, and consequently he will start again earlier. I have also read articels about traffic waves being caused by people basically driving faster than the car in front then needing to slow/stop when they catch up with the one in front. Idiots not moving from the middle lane must cause a lot of congestion in busy motorways, as they are effectively reducing 3 lanes to 2 for others around them who want to use the road properly (though I wouldn't class them as either defensive or agressive).
- wtallis 11y agoI like to characterize is as unpredictability being the real harm. If you don't behave as expected, everyone around you will have to react at short notice, and that disturbs the flow. And those disturbances cascade, because laminar traffic flow is highly unstable.
- diego 11y agoYou missed my point: of course they will be more sophisticated, but if they increase the demand for road resources then there will be more cars out there. They will move efficiently but as slowly as people are able to tolerate before switching to alternate means (e.g. trains, biking, etc).
- YZF 11y agoI agree it's not a given. It's not unlike building new roads which sometimes can increase traffic. You can get people who haven't been able or willing to commute so far join the commuters. If self-driving cars are shared they might be driving more miles and be more likely to break down and block traffic. There is a possibility to optimize transport better using self driving cars but we may not actually take advantage of it. Even things like sharing self driving cars may not work in areas with larger sprawl because the probability of two people looking for the "same" ride within a certain time window and geographical area is small. In the city it's more likely but there are already solutions such as bicycles and public transport that work fairly well in dense areas. It is very difficult to predict the impact. Perhaps impossible.