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As I'm observing this scandal unfold, I find it amusing that all the eyes are on the VW company and how it affects it's finances, it's reputation, etc While th
by codeshaman 11y ago
As I'm observing this scandal unfold, I find it amusing that all the eyes are on the VW company and how it affects it's finances, it's reputation, etc
While the effects on the company are extreme, I think we should also consider the broader and ultimate consequences of this trickery.
The fact that those cars pollute a lot more than officially acknowledged.
I've read figures like 40x as much.
Does that make those 11 million VW cars caught cheating the politically accepted pollution equivalent of 440 million cars ?
Another interesting question - if VW was caught doing it, who else is doing it ?
And if other companies (and factories, etc) are doing it, what is the purpose of the international pollution treaties ? How does it affect the plans to reduce pollution, given that the numbers that we base our calculations on might be off by factors of 40x ?
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- geofft 11y agoHere's a back-of-the-envelope calculation that the cheating caused 100,000 deaths due to health problems from increased pollution: https://twitter.com/Dymaxion/status/646489476651462657 https://twitter.com/Dymaxion/status/646489476651462657
- refurb 11y agoAuthor's caveat: "And I recognize just how far my envelope-math is from a real model of health outcome risk difference"
- fauigerzigerk 11y ago100,000 deaths from 500,000 cars? That's hard to believe.
- scott_karana 11y agoDon't involve "belief", just run the numbers and show your work, unlike the Twitter guy! :-)
- fauigerzigerk 11y agoIt's probably a terrible idea for me to do this as I am completely unqualified, I don't have all the required numbers, and I don't have much time to double check or even think this through properly, but it seems that on the back of an envolpe, everything goes! The average diesel passenger car emitted about 8kg of NOx in 2008 and a third less in 2015 according to [1] and [2], so on average that's 6.6kg per car per year. If VW emitted 20 times that much since 2009, as alleged, that's 6.6 * 20 * 6 years = 792kg. An average diesel engine would have emitted 40kg, so that's 752kg extra for VW. Multiply by 500,000 cars = 376,000 tons of extra emissions. [2] claims that cutting emissions by 187,000 tons saves 4000 lives. Hence, 376,000 tons should cause about 8000 deaths. That's assuming NOx levels and deaths have a linear relationship, which is highly doubtful. So it appears that my feeling/belief that 500,000 cars could not have caused 100,000 deaths is correct. But if all 11 million VW cars of that type worldwide have that same "defect", then of course the number of premature deaths rises to 176,000. All of this is most likely complete bullshit, but you are right, it makes sense to at least try to run some numbers ;-) [1] http://www3.epa.gov/otaq/consumer/420f08024.pdf http://www3.epa.gov/otaq/consumer/420f08024.pdf [2] http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/ordiesel/documents/OFRDDIESELhealthFS.pdf http://www.arb.ca.gov/msprog/ordiesel/documents/OFRDDIESELhe... [Edit] I already found a mistake in my estimate. The NOx numbers in [1] don't seem to be for diesel or not only for diesel engines. But other sources give similar averages for diesel engines (after the catalytic converter does its job of course)
- jddaigle 11y agoThe cars also used less fuel and emitted less CO2 in real-world conditions than they did in the tests--what does that do to the calculations?
- ars 11y ago> less CO2 .... what does that do to the calculations? Nothing at all. First CO2 does not cause any deaths, unlike pollution. Second the amount of CO2 is very small compared to global emissions, so it's quite irrelevant.
- 11y ago
- simonb 11y ago500k in the US, 11M worldwide.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- rcthompson 11y agoNitrous oxide is about 300x more potent a greenhouse gas than CO2[1]. It also depletes the ozone layer. So yes, this could be a major issue for climate change. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrous_oxide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrous_oxide
- refurb 11y agoIs nitrous oxide a major component of the nitrogen oxides from car exhaust? I thought it was mostly nitrogen dioxide (NO2)and dinitrogen tetroxide (N2O4). I haven't heard of nitrous oxide (N2O) being much of a concern.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- qbrass 11y agoN02 not N20 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen_dioxide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen_dioxide
- rcthompson 11y agoWait, which one is emitted by diesel engines?
- dragontamer 11y agoN20 is different from NOx... which actually causes global cooling. Its bad for health reasons which is why there are strict standards on it. But global warming is not the end-all be-all of problems.
- bullfightonmars 11y agoThese are NOx[1] species not N2O. They do not get into the upper atmosphere, like the ozone layer in the Stratosphere. They are instead constrained to the Troposphere, where we live. NOx emissions are highly reactive and in the presence of sunlight turn into O3, Tropospheric Ozone [2] the same chemical compound as that in the Stratosphere, but very different in it's effects. In the Troposphere, Ozone is a highly reactive oxidizing agent and can have serious negative health effects. You can look at a map of daily ozone generation [3] from pollution. Peak production of ozone occurs at the part of the day where sunlight is most intense following the highest levels of traffic. It then mostly reacts and then levels drop again at night. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropospheric_ozone https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropospheric_ozone [3] http://www3.epa.gov/airnow/2010/20100929/anim_aqi_sanfrancisco_ca.gif http://www3.epa.gov/airnow/2010/20100929/anim_aqi_sanfrancis...
- x0x0 11y agoWell, you can bet a pretty sum that some legal firm is rushing to test every single car currently on the road. So there will at least be enforcement, albeit private. (And for all the whiners about law firms making money off this, that's inevitable when you neuter public law enforcement and rely on private enforcement of laws. Unless the ultimate goal is no enforcement of environmental law... naw, couldn't be.)
- SandB0x 11y agoI don't know much about this topic, but according to http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a17430/ezra-dyer-volkswagen-diesel-controversy/ http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/a17430/ezra-dyer-volksw... "All the other carmakers control diesel emissions by spraying a urea solution into the exhaust stream, where a catalyst converts it to ammonia" and supposedly VW have omitted this mechanism to get diesel engines into their smaller cars.
- mzs 11y agoClarification: VW does employ SCR in some models and years, I believe starting with MY16 no US VW comes without it.
- jddaigle 11y agoIt was phased in on the bigger, heavier cars first. The current US-model Passat has used SCR since it was introduced, as has the Touareg with the and every other VW/Audi with the 3.0L V6 TDI. VW didn't put it in the Golf or Jetta until 2015 because it takes up room, adds cost and complexity. By 2015 emissions standards got tight enough that they had no choice. Prior to that the Golf and Jetta used a NOx catalyst that requires a periodic burn-off achieved by sending a pulse of unburned fuel down the exhaust. Same deal as the particulate trap--that stuff needs to be burned off every so often, too.
- rconti 11y agoStarting with MY16 no US VW TDIs are being sold because they never got their certificate of conformity from the EPA.
- hinkley 11y agoWhen I bought by TDI it had the best fuel economy of a mid sized sedan, decent emissions and really good crash ratings. Essentially I bought it instead of a Prius because I wanted a little more oomph for driving, especially in the hills around here. Now I find out they cheated to get those numbers, and I'm pretty disillusioned with the whole company.
- rodgerd 11y agoYour second sentence is, I think, the whole driver for this: VW have been flogging the line that they don't need hybrids because diesel is as good or better pretty much since the Prius got traction in the marketplace.
- hinkley 11y agoWhich is weird because you'd think a hybrid diesel would be better, because you could use the dynamo to avoid the NOX peak.
- rodgerd 11y agoToyota seem to be moving to higher efficiency versions of the four stroke cycle, which haven't previously been popular in petrol engines due to a lack of low-RPM torque, and covering this with the electric element.