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I'm standing by my prediction that Donald Trump will withdraw himself from the nomination prior to the Iowa primaries (and it will take these poll numbers conti

I'm standing by my prediction that Donald Trump will withdraw himself from the nomination prior to the Iowa primaries (and it will take these poll numbers continuing past Christmas for me to think otherwise) [1]. If anyone has a chance at derailing my beliefs so far, it's been Scott Adams (of Dilbert) and his ongoing series of blogs posts about the 'Master Wizard Hypothesis' [2]. He's essentially arguing that linguistic wizardry can trump (sorry) policy and credibility, and that the Donald is a master. Likely for entertainment purposes only, but he's been right on this matter more than Nate Silver so far! Every time you see 'low energy' Bush, 'nice guy' Carson, or 'that face' Fiorina in the press, Adams makes more sense. [1] https://twitter.com/jacobaldridge/status/632163459388432384 https://twitter.com/jacobaldridge/status/632163459388432384 [2] http://blog.dilbert.com/ http://blog.dilbert.com/

venomsnake 11y ago
I love how the media missed both Kelly and Fiorina jabs. Especially Fiorina - do you want someone with the stern face of an bureaucratic principal, ready to discipline you, to look you from the white house for 4 years.
tim333 11y ago
I've been following Adams and the Trump thing with amusement. Aside from the 'Master Wizard' bit Trump's been against lobbyists, tax breaks for hedge funds and the Iraq war, all which could work in his favour. He even beat Clinton in one poll although it was a bit of a blip http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/donald-trump-beats-hillary-clinton-in-poll-and-gets-25-percent-among-blacks/article/2571545 http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/donald-trump-beats-hillary...
joezydeco 11y ago
I kind of believe this as well, but why would you pull out with such large polling numbers? What if he parlays this into a VP position? Every other candidate would fall over themselves to grab his market share.
- JacobAldridge 11y ago
  John Garner, 32nd Vice President of the United States, wonderfully stated that the office of VP "is not worth a bucket of warm piss." I suspect Trump would view it the same way. Whereas Rubio is well-placed to parlay a VP run in 2016 into a title fight in 2024, I can't see Trump wanting to be someone's second in command. It's part of why I think he'll drop out - when the poll numbers crater, he's got nothing to fight for, and for his brand he's better off throwing some mud (whatever Master Wizard is for "the Establishment is working behind the scenes to ensure I'll never get the nomination") and walking away than he is waiting to record 2% of the votes in Iowa.
  - joezydeco 11y ago
    I'm not so sure. You're pretty much Washington royalty without having to do very much (except run the Senate, which he'd get a blast out of).

venomsnake 11y ago

I love how the media missed both Kelly and Fiorina jabs. Especially Fiorina - do you want someone with the stern face of an bureaucratic principal, ready to discipline you, to look you from the white house for 4 years.

tim333 11y ago

I've been following Adams and the Trump thing with amusement. Aside from the 'Master Wizard' bit Trump's been against lobbyists, tax breaks for hedge funds and the Iraq war, all which could work in his favour. He even beat Clinton in one poll although it was a bit of a blip http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/donald-trump-beats-hillary-clinton-in-poll-and-gets-25-percent-among-blacks/article/2571545 http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/donald-trump-beats-hillary...

joezydeco 11y ago

I kind of believe this as well, but why would you pull out with such large polling numbers? What if he parlays this into a VP position? Every other candidate would fall over themselves to grab his market share.

JacobAldridge 11y ago
John Garner, 32nd Vice President of the United States, wonderfully stated that the office of VP "is not worth a bucket of warm piss." I suspect Trump would view it the same way. Whereas Rubio is well-placed to parlay a VP run in 2016 into a title fight in 2024, I can't see Trump wanting to be someone's second in command. It's part of why I think he'll drop out - when the poll numbers crater, he's got nothing to fight for, and for his brand he's better off throwing some mud (whatever Master Wizard is for "the Establishment is working behind the scenes to ensure I'll never get the nomination") and walking away than he is waiting to record 2% of the votes in Iowa.
- joezydeco 11y ago
  I'm not so sure. You're pretty much Washington royalty without having to do very much (except run the Senate, which he'd get a blast out of).