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On a personal note, I'm more likely to investigate anti-refugee arguments because I feel like they're underrated. I agree with the sentiment that we should unde

On a personal note, I'm more likely to investigate anti-refugee arguments because I feel like they're underrated. I agree with the sentiment that we should understand that we're dealing with humans here, not numbers; but just like statistics has its weakness in that it can cause us to over-generalize, picking out the stories of individuals can allow a narrative to be crafted that is overfitted away from the whole. Big picture: most refugees going across the Mediterranean are Syrian, male (like 72% male!), young, and poor.[0] Like unless they have families that they're hoping to have evacuated (why didn't they bring them over in the first place?), we're talking about a recipe for complete stupidity. Language barriers exist, education barriers exist; I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. This is going to be a demographic shock to countries with more balanced gender ratios, and in the case of Europe, upside-down aging pyramids. Men without solid economic recourse and lack of cultural integration are going to resort to crime. They will upset the local sex market through strong male competition for women (rape town!). Politics in Europe will never be the same as the majority of the young do not carry any of the previous generation's values. I'm really open to being proved wrong, I really am. But I'm not counting on it. [0] http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php

einrealist 11y ago
At this stage, I expect to happen the following: They will adapt. We will adapt. There will be lots of problems. There will be many opportunities and there will be good.
- guard-of-terra 11y ago
  What you're saying, you don't have any control over the situation but you hope that it'll end well. Кривая вывезет. It doesn't always turn out right, you know? Holocaust happened as an example where situation has never fixed itself. See also Kosovo, previously populated by Serbs, then they let muslim move in, muslim then drive out serbs by fear and intimidation, take over the region just for themself, and THEN seek refuge as crazy because they don't want to live in the kind of country they created. I can imagine it happen to some European regions.
pron 11y ago
Sure, it's not going to be easy; there will be a bit more crime and a bit more poverty. But there are a few points to consider. First, the number of refugees would amount to no more a few percent of the local European population. It's not a "demographic shock". Second, the entire Middle East was under European control or various degrees of meddling for a very long time (hell, the entire world), and nobody asked them when Europe came barging in. With power comes responsibility, you reap what you sow etc. etc.. Finally, if compassion didn't have a price, it wouldn't be worth much.
NhanH 11y ago
Let me take on the easiest part of the argument first. Someone more knowledgeable can deal with the rest. > Politics in Europe will never be the same as the majority of the young do not carry any of the previous generation's values. First reaction: boo-hoo. More reasonable reaction: the Eurozone's population is about 330 millions right now, are they really expecting 100millions+ refugee? Yes, right now the refugees are concentrating in just a few countries, but that's because of the EU's attitude and passing-the-ball solution so far. The area as a whole CAN take on the refugees. The same argument on the scale can easily apply to most of your other objections really. But the most important point is as simple as this: it's a very shitty situation all around, but does the anti-refugee camp have any proposed solution besides "tough shit, they are not my problems"? I mean, I can see people being selfish, and that itself is not a problem, but let's just call a spade a spade? EU citizens are all within their own rights for vote for their Trump-equivalent and build a wall around EU.
- dvfjsdhgfv 11y ago
  it's not just EU's attitude: the immigrants choose the countries themselves, there is no way to keep them e.g. in Hungary if all they want is to go to Germany
  - toyg 11y ago
    You can try and likely ontain at least some erosion. Say you place 10,000 in Hungary and 6,000 end up in Germany anyway -- that's still some relief. These people have travelled for so long and gone through such a huge culture shock, if you try to integrate them quickly they will probably lose the appetite for relocating again. Unfortunately, the unspoken truth is that Eastern European countries have a huge unaddressed problem of deep racism. They have not gone through the experience of being target for economic mass-migration from other continents yet, unlike most Western European countries have been for more than 50 years now (and still struggle with the issue occasionally, but with much softer undertones). Countries like Hungary will do the bare minimum required to keep their EU funding and will likely not even try to really help these people, which means the quota system might end up being an exercise in futility. We still have to try though, it's the only solution. We must hope our Eastern fellows will eventually find the compassion to change their ways.
Zirro 11y ago
You speak as if Europe has a choice in accepting refugees. I believe the last few weeks in particular show that this choice does not exist. They will come, and we will have to do the best we can out of the situation.
- Animats 11y ago
  Hungary just closed their border. They put up over a hundred miles of fence on their border with Serbia, backed up by police and troops.[1] [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-europe-migrants-idUSKCN0RD0P420150915 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-europe-migrants...
- bordercases 11y ago
  They do! Germany, the UK and the Scandinavian nations are the only European countries (that I was aware of circa within the week) to be actively accepting Syrian refugees - every other country in between them AND the Mediterranean have had negative responses to incoming refugees and I would expect deportation. If refugees were just coming in for safety's sake, there are plenty of other Islamic countries that would be more culturally compatible (that argument would fail in the case of Syrian Christians; I don't know the full proportion of real religious denomination to refugee count). There are plenty of European countries that want no business with refugees, like Hungary, who have just declared martial law in the last few days or so wrt refugees. It's a choice. It's a hard choice, one which tangles several levels of liberal beliefs of tolerance in a democratic state and respecting a country's historical/ethnic heritage, which is why I think there is so much controversy. I personally don't see how any country in Europe is obliged to accept refugees.
  - atmosx 11y ago
    Germany is closing it's borders: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/refugees-confounded-merkel-close-german-borders http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/refugees-confou... They do! (close the borders).
    - netrus 11y ago
yummyfajitas 11y ago
You are going to be massively downvoted, but I am glad to see a dissenting opinion here. It is far too easy for a discussion like this to turn into a "look at our empathy, aren't we great" - alternate opinions are useful.
mverwijs 11y ago
> rape town! The amount of assumptions and fear in reactions like these worry me way more than those refugees themselves.
- dvfjsdhgfv 11y ago
  unfortunately the documented behaviour of the last waves of immigrants on their way to Germany does little to appease these fears
  - tobr 11y ago
    Please stop the FUD. It's true that immigrants are over-represented in crime statistics, but that is both as victims and perpetrators, and it must be understood in the light of their socioeconomic status. Regardless, >99% of the people who are coming to Europe right now are not future rapists.
    - Yetanfou 11y ago
      Denying a problem does not solve it. Please read up on those statistics before you start wielding terms like 'FUD'. The 'U' in this case in not justified as it is known that non-western immigrants are heavily overrepresented in crime statistics. Neither is the 'D', for the same reasons. The mere fact that a large part of the immigrants will not commit crimes does not mean you should ignore or talk down the crimes perpetrated by those who do. Which leaves the 'F' for fear. That fear is fed for a large part by the fact that discussing these issues immediately leads to outcries of 'FUD', 'Racism', 'Discrimination' and 'Xenophobia'. Not being allowed to discuss something does not make it go away. It makes it grow in the minds of those subjected to the censure. It also does not help in solving these problems since they have to be visible and understood before they can be solved.
      - Steko 11y ago
        No one is saying don't talk about the issue. People are pointing out that "rape town!" poisons the well on serious debate. Come on.
artnep 11y ago
Interesting point regarding gender ratios. It's a good thing prostitution is legal and widespread in Germany.
kshatrea 11y ago
The overwhelmingly male youth that are immigrating are the reason a bunch of conspiracy theories are afloat on the internet. The next few years will be interesting. By all accounts Europe is headed for a recession and recessions usually foster xenophobia.[0] As an Indian living in Europe, I haven't yet noticed any changes but I assume that it will only get worse since behind all the talk about "humanity" most people still have to get 3 meals and when you have thousands such young hungry and tired men who can't get a job, I agree with the parent. Hopefully he and I are proved wrong since this is a real crisis. [0]http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2979/racethmulglocon.4.2.183?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2979/racethmulglocon.4.2.183?...
deleted 11y ago
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socket0 11y ago
Your numbers can't be faulted, but the risks might be overstated. Based on purely anecdotal evidence (several young Syrian men who ended up in Belgium) I can say that many of these guys do indeed have families they intend to bring over. Because of the danger and uncertainty of the journey, those who could stash their families somewhere relatively safe for a short while did so. They knew it would be easier for them to reach real safety on their own, and that there will be organisations to help them reunite with their families afterwards. Of course, a negative aspect to this is that the current refugee numbers are lower than they should be, as many of these people will soon account for several more. The struggle for economic resources might not be as bad as you envision. Countries like Germany have excellent social welfare systems with the capacity of processing refugees as quickly as possible. (OK, "as quickly as possible" isn't very quick, but they'll handle it.) The biggest challenge at the moment is getting these people off welfare and into the job market. Sure, because of cultural and educational differences we're probably not going to see many engineers or neurosurgeons, but the people who collect our garbage and do our cleaning mostly aren't engineers or neurosurgeons either. And language barriers are more fuzzy in the EU than in most other places, we tend to get around them. The jobs won't be fancy, but they'll pay minimum wage and give the refugees a purpose and a sense of self-worth. Also, there's no path to integration as straight and speedy as hanging out with colleagues over breaks. But you're right, it's not going to be easy. It's going to take pragmatic and inspired leadership within the EU, and we're in very short supply of that. On the other hand, these people and their children will pay the future taxes that fund my pension and socialised medicine, all I need to do is make sure they're safe and land on their feet now.
- bordercases 11y ago
  > taxes I was hoping that it wouldn't come down to that sort of thing - exploiting the refugees as a taxable resource. Because it seems kind of two-faced, to have Janus wear compassion/universalism on one side and to have taxing/demographic sustainability on the other side. Have some more goddamn kids.
  - toyg 11y ago
    Truth is, most migrants end up benefiting their new country despite a general hostility towards them. It's always been like that, even in XIX century US. So there is no hypocrisy really: we are not letting them in "because they help with taxes", that's a secondary side-effect that we are forced to emphasize in modern debate only because we have to fight naturally-xenophobic elements in our societies.
Squarel 11y ago
I saw the data you linked, but I don't see the "poor". From what I see, they make up a range of demographics and educational levels. As to why they did not bring their families over in the first place? That is usually because they want to make sure they have somewhere to stay before bringing their families over. Bigger picture. The population of Europe as a whole is 740 million or so. Even if the entire population of Syrian pitched up in Europe (20 million or so), it would be under 5% of the population. The actual numbers of refugees is around 5 million, so less than 1%. You are trying to suggest that 1% of the population is a "demographic shock"? The problem arises when the refugees are concentrated in a few countries, and then other nations use the crowding and chaos there as an excuse not to take any. "Men without solid economic recourse", as per my previous point, these individuals span the entire socio-economic range, and have a wide range of skills. If they are able to gain employment (Many countries do not allow refugees to work) then I do not see why they would not have solid economic recourse.
- bordercases 11y ago
  These are good points and sum up what I think are the strongest contras to my argument. From here it seems reasonable that the problem is spread.
- LoSboccacc 11y ago
  Migrants won't spread uniformly trough Europe, but will try to build their own communities into the major hub. While 5 million across Europe uniformly is not a big number, spread them in few of the biggest cities that may offer a chance for them to get a job and suddenly you have a problem. You are ignoring hundred of years of migration data if you think they will spread uniformly across Europe or even within a single city, the likely outcome is that they will try to stick into their own area, building their own neighborhood, much like you have the Chinese, Arab and whatever quarter in all major cities. Those individuals while skilled will have no connections, no competitive advantage against the local laborers except a sob story and the necessity to work by whatever means. Guess how it will play out? They will also carry their own culture tradition and overall mindset. We had many cases of attempted integration gone wrong already over previous migrations, with people beating their own wife or imprisoning their daughters because that's the way they grew up and how they learned to cope with family issues. They are not running away from weird green aliens, eh. I'm all for integration and acceptance, but with the right process - split them up, isolate them from each other, have them spread uniformly, whatever it can be done to avoid the creation of refugee camps. Then you might have a chance to avert a crisis. Leave them on their own and it will only allow them to bring here the same crises they have over there (just look Turkish/Kurdish escalation and how it affected Swiss ill-integrated communities for a recent example)
badlogic 11y ago
Rape town? Really?
- tormeh 11y ago
  It's an evolutionary response to lack of gene-furthering prospects. All men are potential rapists. The gender imbalance is a problem.
- Steko 11y ago
  Every time it seems like HN is making a little bit of progress you click on a link and find out they've upvoted something like 'Rape Town!' to the top of a thread.
  - nhaehnle 11y ago
    I downvoted you because yours is a largely content-free comment in which you pretend that 'Rape Town!' is the only content of the top-level comment you are complaining about. (And I realize that my comment adds even more noise, but I prefer to explain my downvotes.)
  - fwn 11y ago
    I don't like the rape town phrase either. This, however, sounds pretty elitist to me. I hope HN doesn't get more progressive but stays as uniquely diverse as it is.
qcoh 11y ago
>Like unless they have families that they're hoping to have evacuated (why didn't they bring them over in the first place?), The reasons I've gathered so far are: The journey is dangerous not just because of the risk of drowning. If I recall correctly, there were stories of rape. There's also a law for family reunification (I don't know the details but at least in the case of minors this means they can bring their family). Lastly, many young Syrian men flee because they could be conscripted by the army. >I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. I don't think we know either.
- emp_zealoth 11y ago
  Wow. You mention immigrant rapists on the way as a valid reason to not bring women.. Yet when you as much as mutter about immigrant rapistz in europe all hell breaks loose, political correctness maelstorm Where is open discussion about the issues? Where is data to talk about? I tried to look for any and there are almost none that supports the PC side...
htns 11y ago
>I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. Is anyone really planning on that? It's much nicer to have an underclass under you. The economic argument is often brought up, but there is little backing, seeing how Swedish and German economies are the strongest in Europe and have accepted tons of immigrants in the past decade or two. It is costly for the state to nurse and educate a native citizen.
NietTim 11y ago
> I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. We are not, they are refugees, not immigrants
- saiya-jin 11y ago
  they became economic immigrants in the moment they left first safe country after leaving Syria. c'mon, we all know they aren't going to Germany because it's the only place in this world to escape war back home.
mrkickling 11y ago
Some families send the strongest/healthiest male in the family since the trip to Europe is so dangerous, but the families often come afterwards. It's easier for them to come legally if they already have a family member in the country. During the first half of 2015, 2000 women and 4500 men came as refugees to Sweden from Syria, but 3100 women and 2000 men came afterwards as asylum searching family members. In total ~5300 women and ~6800 men (including working visas) came to Sweden from Syria. I wonder, do you think people from non-western countries has a bigger potential of commiting rape? How different do you think the values of these people are compared to "us"? http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/Befolkning/Befolkningens-sammansattning/Befolkningsstatistik/25788/25795/Behallare-for-Press/393217/ http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/B...
- bordercases 11y ago
  > difference of values I think that the extreme cases become more likely for non-Western cultures, even if we assume that the distribution of rapes per ethnicity follows a similar average between populations of West and non-West. Islamic countries are not known for their respect for the sanctity of women, particularly in the Middle Eastern clades of Islam. (I've had Somalian, Malaysian and Sudanese Muslim friends which were extremely well-adjusted to Western culture and make good claims about women in these countries; but likewise I've had Bangladeshi friends who deplored the situation of women. So I think cultural temperament comes before religious law, but a religion can serve as a strong post-hoc justification for the strongest aspects of that temperament.) If you're willing to take a scene at its word, there's this: https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/muslim_rape_wave_in_sweden/ https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/muslim_rape_wave_... If this is any representative of the attitude of Islam towards rape, count me as disgusted.
soneil 11y ago
The demographic 'shock', particularly "upside-down aging pyramids" isn't a problem - it's actually the primary benefit of this migration. "Upside-down aging pyramids" are a problem for us - as the population tends towards older, we have more tax-drains (increasing medical requirements, increasing retirement costs) and less tax-feeders. 18-30yo men, what in another age would have been our definition of eligible conscripts, are exactly the injection required. Integration is a concern, yes. Language barriers I'm fine with - this is Europe, I don't speak German either - but perhaps the path from temporary to permanent residency needs to be a bit more than paperwork. Some form of (non-military) national service may be ideal. Germany has a fantastic track-record of vocational / apprenticeship-based education. Perhaps if we can mix such a model with some other requirements (eg, local language), a path could be laid where they not only work for their benefits & contribute back, but also offer a future for them, their family, and a continent that's begging for young blood. I don't think it's anything to do with "ways of the west", but simply ensuring there's some sort of future ahead of them. Running water stays fresh, standing water grows stagnant.
Douceur 11y ago
I understand that the refugee debate is an emotional one, but let me try and show you another way of thinking about it. You said earlier that we shouldn't over-generalise especially with the influx of (positive) stories of these refugees, but one can argue that you're doing the same thing but from the other perspective. In fact, before the Aylan tragedy, I remember that there wasn't much coverage about the refugees themselves, but certainly there was a lot of sentiments, mostly fear, from the media and the public on the Internet. Even NYT remarked on the apparently British obsession with refugees: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/world/europe/calais-migrant-crisis-british-media.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/world/europe/calais-migran... . Personally I welcome the recent positive stories about the plight of the refugees because it brings balance to the debate, and remind us that they are also human beings and merely want to escape from death and poverty. Who wouldn't run? I'm in no way likening you with Stalin but your quote regarding statistics brought back some chilling memories: "One man is a tragedy, a million statistics". We cannot and must not let go of humanity, not after so much tragedies. I know that it's completely unrealistic to take in all of them, and I think it's nonsense that one can just open up borders without proper checks - the argument that a terrorist might be disguised as refugee is a valid one, I think. But I also think that neighbouring countries should have responsibilities to accommodate as many refugees as they can handle - and that's where the problems come in. Despite the media pandering on the lack of action from neighbouring Arab countries, Jordan, Lebanon and even Turkey have been taking in millions of refugees for years, even decades, see http://www.mercycorps.org/articles/turkey-iraq-jordan-lebanon-syria/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-syria-crisis http://www.mercycorps.org/articles/turkey-iraq-jordan-lebano... . However it's starting to take its toll, and it's definitely not sustainable, which the refugees themselves could see. Lower wages, lower standards of living, growing dissent ... and then there's the next neighbour, rich and civilised: Europe. It's easy to see why it looks like the Promised Land! Sure, people smugglers exploit this ruthlessly and many have even died trying to reach Europe, but for those who are already at your doorstep, is it really necessary to question if you should take them in or not? We live on the same planet, and it's getting smaller. We used to think that what happens on the other side of the world won't affect us, but clearly globalisation and the Internet have linked us all up in a way more intimate than before. Sometimes I think that the concept of borders and countries are outdated[1]; we have so much more in common than differences that it's hard to feel "us vs them" now. And I think that's the key with the refugee crisis, and it's the same thing with other global issues like climate change: Division of privileges is increasingly becoming irrelevant and we've got to start thinking like global citizens. --- [1]though I can't see countries getting scrapped in the future, we're way too tribal for that (!)
icc97 11y ago
The 'resort to crime' isn't actually true [1]. We just think it is. [1]: http://phys.org/news/2012-06-people-undocumented-immigrants-crime.html http://phys.org/news/2012-06-people-undocumented-immigrants-...
- peterfirefly 11y ago
  Undocumented immigrants in the US who don't want to be discovered and deported are different from documented "refugees" (or actual refugees) in Europe. The latter don't have anywhere near the same reason to fear being deported or banished -- and they can be quite criminal with very few consequences (depending on the country they are in -- one of the reasons why Sweden is so popular at the moment).
- librvf 11y ago
  Unless I'm missing something, there's no actual data about per capita crime or criminality rates by country of origin or even immigration status in that article. That's the data that would actually be useful.
funkyy 11y ago
I am disgusted with the media recently. All western media are portraying this in a A/B approach. Either you accept migrants without hesitation, or you are fascist animal. Discussion is not allowed and despite growing public dislike of the process of accepting undocumented immigrants from war torn country that is full of ISIS fighters. Manipulation (majority of pictures show only women, children and few poorly dressed males), public hate towards people asking questions - this is fascist in my opinion. Unaddressed things like the fact that majority of immigrants are actually safe in Turkey and Lebanon immigrant camps, yet they decide to go to Europe for better life (so its not like they are in danger). Majority of young males getting to Europe (who in their right mind leaves their wifes and kids in war torn country to find a better life if that's the case? Or are they safe in immigration camps?). Funny thing - leftist parties are actually shooting themselves in the foot as within 5 years we will see huge rise in right wing parties taking over majority of votes. The "right thing to do" took over "right thing to do to our citizens". IMO this should be handled as follows: immigrants without visas get send to closed immigration camps, where they wait for paper work. If they pass, off they go, if they wont pass they can either stay in the camp or go back to the country of origin. This is how it was decade ago, not sure why all of sudden there was a change. Letting anyone in will cause rise in right wing movements fueled by increased terrorist activism from undocumented immigrants. Anyone saying "hey, this worked before" forgets, that before ALL immigrants were required to apply for proper visa before getting in, not like now, when they get them without any proper check so we dont know who gets in.
- iaskwhy 11y ago
  > Unaddressed things like the fact that majority of immigrants are actually safe in Turkey and Lebanon immigrant camps, yet they decide to go to Europe for better life (so its not like they are in danger). This is false and it's easy to confirm, just read a bit about the conditions of these camps, the lack of food, etc, and if you want to see it for yourself, check YouTube, it actually has a lot of in person short docs about most refugee camps. That's what I did when I had that question in my mind, why would they leave those camps to risk their lifes, and it's mostly due to the lack of food, hygiene, healthcare, and over-capacity. On a side-note, how can someone say something is unaddressed with the amount of information available on the internet? People just need to read a bit when in doubt and stop with false (and dangerous) assumptions.
atmosx 11y ago
Here is a good anti-refugee argument, from a refugee: https://vine.co/v/eTZO5j3q9Vp https://vine.co/v/eTZO5j3q9Vp

einrealist 11y ago

At this stage, I expect to happen the following: They will adapt. We will adapt. There will be lots of problems. There will be many opportunities and there will be good.

guard-of-terra 11y ago
What you're saying, you don't have any control over the situation but you hope that it'll end well. Кривая вывезет. It doesn't always turn out right, you know? Holocaust happened as an example where situation has never fixed itself. See also Kosovo, previously populated by Serbs, then they let muslim move in, muslim then drive out serbs by fear and intimidation, take over the region just for themself, and THEN seek refuge as crazy because they don't want to live in the kind of country they created. I can imagine it happen to some European regions.

pron 11y ago

Sure, it's not going to be easy; there will be a bit more crime and a bit more poverty. But there are a few points to consider. First, the number of refugees would amount to no more a few percent of the local European population. It's not a "demographic shock". Second, the entire Middle East was under European control or various degrees of meddling for a very long time (hell, the entire world), and nobody asked them when Europe came barging in. With power comes responsibility, you reap what you sow etc. etc.. Finally, if compassion didn't have a price, it wouldn't be worth much.

NhanH 11y ago

Let me take on the easiest part of the argument first. Someone more knowledgeable can deal with the rest. > Politics in Europe will never be the same as the majority of the young do not carry any of the previous generation's values. First reaction: boo-hoo. More reasonable reaction: the Eurozone's population is about 330 millions right now, are they really expecting 100millions+ refugee? Yes, right now the refugees are concentrating in just a few countries, but that's because of the EU's attitude and passing-the-ball solution so far. The area as a whole CAN take on the refugees. The same argument on the scale can easily apply to most of your other objections really. But the most important point is as simple as this: it's a very shitty situation all around, but does the anti-refugee camp have any proposed solution besides "tough shit, they are not my problems"? I mean, I can see people being selfish, and that itself is not a problem, but let's just call a spade a spade? EU citizens are all within their own rights for vote for their Trump-equivalent and build a wall around EU.

dvfjsdhgfv 11y ago
it's not just EU's attitude: the immigrants choose the countries themselves, there is no way to keep them e.g. in Hungary if all they want is to go to Germany
- toyg 11y ago
  You can try and likely ontain at least some erosion. Say you place 10,000 in Hungary and 6,000 end up in Germany anyway -- that's still some relief. These people have travelled for so long and gone through such a huge culture shock, if you try to integrate them quickly they will probably lose the appetite for relocating again. Unfortunately, the unspoken truth is that Eastern European countries have a huge unaddressed problem of deep racism. They have not gone through the experience of being target for economic mass-migration from other continents yet, unlike most Western European countries have been for more than 50 years now (and still struggle with the issue occasionally, but with much softer undertones). Countries like Hungary will do the bare minimum required to keep their EU funding and will likely not even try to really help these people, which means the quota system might end up being an exercise in futility. We still have to try though, it's the only solution. We must hope our Eastern fellows will eventually find the compassion to change their ways.

Zirro 11y ago

You speak as if Europe has a choice in accepting refugees. I believe the last few weeks in particular show that this choice does not exist. They will come, and we will have to do the best we can out of the situation.

Animats 11y ago
Hungary just closed their border. They put up over a hundred miles of fence on their border with Serbia, backed up by police and troops.[1] [1] http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-europe-migrants-idUSKCN0RD0P420150915 http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/us-europe-migrants...
bordercases 11y ago
They do! Germany, the UK and the Scandinavian nations are the only European countries (that I was aware of circa within the week) to be actively accepting Syrian refugees - every other country in between them AND the Mediterranean have had negative responses to incoming refugees and I would expect deportation. If refugees were just coming in for safety's sake, there are plenty of other Islamic countries that would be more culturally compatible (that argument would fail in the case of Syrian Christians; I don't know the full proportion of real religious denomination to refugee count). There are plenty of European countries that want no business with refugees, like Hungary, who have just declared martial law in the last few days or so wrt refugees. It's a choice. It's a hard choice, one which tangles several levels of liberal beliefs of tolerance in a democratic state and respecting a country's historical/ethnic heritage, which is why I think there is so much controversy. I personally don't see how any country in Europe is obliged to accept refugees.
- atmosx 11y ago
  Germany is closing it's borders: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/refugees-confounded-merkel-close-german-borders http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/refugees-confou... They do! (close the borders).
  - netrus 11y ago

yummyfajitas 11y ago

You are going to be massively downvoted, but I am glad to see a dissenting opinion here. It is far too easy for a discussion like this to turn into a "look at our empathy, aren't we great" - alternate opinions are useful.

mverwijs 11y ago

> rape town! The amount of assumptions and fear in reactions like these worry me way more than those refugees themselves.

dvfjsdhgfv 11y ago
unfortunately the documented behaviour of the last waves of immigrants on their way to Germany does little to appease these fears
- tobr 11y ago
  Please stop the FUD. It's true that immigrants are over-represented in crime statistics, but that is both as victims and perpetrators, and it must be understood in the light of their socioeconomic status. Regardless, >99% of the people who are coming to Europe right now are not future rapists.
  - Yetanfou 11y ago
    Denying a problem does not solve it. Please read up on those statistics before you start wielding terms like 'FUD'. The 'U' in this case in not justified as it is known that non-western immigrants are heavily overrepresented in crime statistics. Neither is the 'D', for the same reasons. The mere fact that a large part of the immigrants will not commit crimes does not mean you should ignore or talk down the crimes perpetrated by those who do. Which leaves the 'F' for fear. That fear is fed for a large part by the fact that discussing these issues immediately leads to outcries of 'FUD', 'Racism', 'Discrimination' and 'Xenophobia'. Not being allowed to discuss something does not make it go away. It makes it grow in the minds of those subjected to the censure. It also does not help in solving these problems since they have to be visible and understood before they can be solved.
    - Steko 11y ago
      No one is saying don't talk about the issue. People are pointing out that "rape town!" poisons the well on serious debate. Come on.

artnep 11y ago

Interesting point regarding gender ratios. It's a good thing prostitution is legal and widespread in Germany.

kshatrea 11y ago

The overwhelmingly male youth that are immigrating are the reason a bunch of conspiracy theories are afloat on the internet. The next few years will be interesting. By all accounts Europe is headed for a recession and recessions usually foster xenophobia.[0] As an Indian living in Europe, I haven't yet noticed any changes but I assume that it will only get worse since behind all the talk about "humanity" most people still have to get 3 meals and when you have thousands such young hungry and tired men who can't get a job, I agree with the parent. Hopefully he and I are proved wrong since this is a real crisis. [0]http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2979/racethmulglocon.4.2.183?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2979/racethmulglocon.4.2.183?...

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

socket0 11y ago

Your numbers can't be faulted, but the risks might be overstated. Based on purely anecdotal evidence (several young Syrian men who ended up in Belgium) I can say that many of these guys do indeed have families they intend to bring over. Because of the danger and uncertainty of the journey, those who could stash their families somewhere relatively safe for a short while did so. They knew it would be easier for them to reach real safety on their own, and that there will be organisations to help them reunite with their families afterwards. Of course, a negative aspect to this is that the current refugee numbers are lower than they should be, as many of these people will soon account for several more. The struggle for economic resources might not be as bad as you envision. Countries like Germany have excellent social welfare systems with the capacity of processing refugees as quickly as possible. (OK, "as quickly as possible" isn't very quick, but they'll handle it.) The biggest challenge at the moment is getting these people off welfare and into the job market. Sure, because of cultural and educational differences we're probably not going to see many engineers or neurosurgeons, but the people who collect our garbage and do our cleaning mostly aren't engineers or neurosurgeons either. And language barriers are more fuzzy in the EU than in most other places, we tend to get around them. The jobs won't be fancy, but they'll pay minimum wage and give the refugees a purpose and a sense of self-worth. Also, there's no path to integration as straight and speedy as hanging out with colleagues over breaks. But you're right, it's not going to be easy. It's going to take pragmatic and inspired leadership within the EU, and we're in very short supply of that. On the other hand, these people and their children will pay the future taxes that fund my pension and socialised medicine, all I need to do is make sure they're safe and land on their feet now.

bordercases 11y ago
> taxes I was hoping that it wouldn't come down to that sort of thing - exploiting the refugees as a taxable resource. Because it seems kind of two-faced, to have Janus wear compassion/universalism on one side and to have taxing/demographic sustainability on the other side. Have some more goddamn kids.
- toyg 11y ago
  Truth is, most migrants end up benefiting their new country despite a general hostility towards them. It's always been like that, even in XIX century US. So there is no hypocrisy really: we are not letting them in "because they help with taxes", that's a secondary side-effect that we are forced to emphasize in modern debate only because we have to fight naturally-xenophobic elements in our societies.

Squarel 11y ago

I saw the data you linked, but I don't see the "poor". From what I see, they make up a range of demographics and educational levels. As to why they did not bring their families over in the first place? That is usually because they want to make sure they have somewhere to stay before bringing their families over. Bigger picture. The population of Europe as a whole is 740 million or so. Even if the entire population of Syrian pitched up in Europe (20 million or so), it would be under 5% of the population. The actual numbers of refugees is around 5 million, so less than 1%. You are trying to suggest that 1% of the population is a "demographic shock"? The problem arises when the refugees are concentrated in a few countries, and then other nations use the crowding and chaos there as an excuse not to take any. "Men without solid economic recourse", as per my previous point, these individuals span the entire socio-economic range, and have a wide range of skills. If they are able to gain employment (Many countries do not allow refugees to work) then I do not see why they would not have solid economic recourse.

bordercases 11y ago
These are good points and sum up what I think are the strongest contras to my argument. From here it seems reasonable that the problem is spread.
LoSboccacc 11y ago
Migrants won't spread uniformly trough Europe, but will try to build their own communities into the major hub. While 5 million across Europe uniformly is not a big number, spread them in few of the biggest cities that may offer a chance for them to get a job and suddenly you have a problem. You are ignoring hundred of years of migration data if you think they will spread uniformly across Europe or even within a single city, the likely outcome is that they will try to stick into their own area, building their own neighborhood, much like you have the Chinese, Arab and whatever quarter in all major cities. Those individuals while skilled will have no connections, no competitive advantage against the local laborers except a sob story and the necessity to work by whatever means. Guess how it will play out? They will also carry their own culture tradition and overall mindset. We had many cases of attempted integration gone wrong already over previous migrations, with people beating their own wife or imprisoning their daughters because that's the way they grew up and how they learned to cope with family issues. They are not running away from weird green aliens, eh. I'm all for integration and acceptance, but with the right process - split them up, isolate them from each other, have them spread uniformly, whatever it can be done to avoid the creation of refugee camps. Then you might have a chance to avert a crisis. Leave them on their own and it will only allow them to bring here the same crises they have over there (just look Turkish/Kurdish escalation and how it affected Swiss ill-integrated communities for a recent example)

badlogic 11y ago

Rape town? Really?

tormeh 11y ago
It's an evolutionary response to lack of gene-furthering prospects. All men are potential rapists. The gender imbalance is a problem.
Steko 11y ago
Every time it seems like HN is making a little bit of progress you click on a link and find out they've upvoted something like 'Rape Town!' to the top of a thread.
- nhaehnle 11y ago
  I downvoted you because yours is a largely content-free comment in which you pretend that 'Rape Town!' is the only content of the top-level comment you are complaining about. (And I realize that my comment adds even more noise, but I prefer to explain my downvotes.)
- fwn 11y ago
  I don't like the rape town phrase either. This, however, sounds pretty elitist to me. I hope HN doesn't get more progressive but stays as uniquely diverse as it is.

qcoh 11y ago

>Like unless they have families that they're hoping to have evacuated (why didn't they bring them over in the first place?), The reasons I've gathered so far are: The journey is dangerous not just because of the risk of drowning. If I recall correctly, there were stories of rape. There's also a law for family reunification (I don't know the details but at least in the case of minors this means they can bring their family). Lastly, many young Syrian men flee because they could be conscripted by the army. >I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. I don't think we know either.

emp_zealoth 11y ago
Wow. You mention immigrant rapists on the way as a valid reason to not bring women.. Yet when you as much as mutter about immigrant rapistz in europe all hell breaks loose, political correctness maelstorm Where is open discussion about the issues? Where is data to talk about? I tried to look for any and there are almost none that supports the PC side...

htns 11y ago

>I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. Is anyone really planning on that? It's much nicer to have an underclass under you. The economic argument is often brought up, but there is little backing, seeing how Swedish and German economies are the strongest in Europe and have accepted tons of immigrants in the past decade or two. It is costly for the state to nurse and educate a native citizen.

NietTim 11y ago

> I don't know how the Europeans intend to get all of these refugee adults up to economic snuff at the same grade of Europeans who were trained in the ways of the West from birth. We are not, they are refugees, not immigrants

saiya-jin 11y ago
they became economic immigrants in the moment they left first safe country after leaving Syria. c'mon, we all know they aren't going to Germany because it's the only place in this world to escape war back home.

mrkickling 11y ago

Some families send the strongest/healthiest male in the family since the trip to Europe is so dangerous, but the families often come afterwards. It's easier for them to come legally if they already have a family member in the country. During the first half of 2015, 2000 women and 4500 men came as refugees to Sweden from Syria, but 3100 women and 2000 men came afterwards as asylum searching family members. In total ~5300 women and ~6800 men (including working visas) came to Sweden from Syria. I wonder, do you think people from non-western countries has a bigger potential of commiting rape? How different do you think the values of these people are compared to "us"? http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/Befolkning/Befolkningens-sammansattning/Befolkningsstatistik/25788/25795/Behallare-for-Press/393217/ http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Statistik-efter-amne/B...

bordercases 11y ago
> difference of values I think that the extreme cases become more likely for non-Western cultures, even if we assume that the distribution of rapes per ethnicity follows a similar average between populations of West and non-West. Islamic countries are not known for their respect for the sanctity of women, particularly in the Middle Eastern clades of Islam. (I've had Somalian, Malaysian and Sudanese Muslim friends which were extremely well-adjusted to Western culture and make good claims about women in these countries; but likewise I've had Bangladeshi friends who deplored the situation of women. So I think cultural temperament comes before religious law, but a religion can serve as a strong post-hoc justification for the strongest aspects of that temperament.) If you're willing to take a scene at its word, there's this: https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/muslim_rape_wave_in_sweden/ https://majorityrights.com/weblog/comments/muslim_rape_wave_... If this is any representative of the attitude of Islam towards rape, count me as disgusted.

soneil 11y ago

The demographic 'shock', particularly "upside-down aging pyramids" isn't a problem - it's actually the primary benefit of this migration. "Upside-down aging pyramids" are a problem for us - as the population tends towards older, we have more tax-drains (increasing medical requirements, increasing retirement costs) and less tax-feeders. 18-30yo men, what in another age would have been our definition of eligible conscripts, are exactly the injection required. Integration is a concern, yes. Language barriers I'm fine with - this is Europe, I don't speak German either - but perhaps the path from temporary to permanent residency needs to be a bit more than paperwork. Some form of (non-military) national service may be ideal. Germany has a fantastic track-record of vocational / apprenticeship-based education. Perhaps if we can mix such a model with some other requirements (eg, local language), a path could be laid where they not only work for their benefits & contribute back, but also offer a future for them, their family, and a continent that's begging for young blood. I don't think it's anything to do with "ways of the west", but simply ensuring there's some sort of future ahead of them. Running water stays fresh, standing water grows stagnant.

Douceur 11y ago

I understand that the refugee debate is an emotional one, but let me try and show you another way of thinking about it. You said earlier that we shouldn't over-generalise especially with the influx of (positive) stories of these refugees, but one can argue that you're doing the same thing but from the other perspective. In fact, before the Aylan tragedy, I remember that there wasn't much coverage about the refugees themselves, but certainly there was a lot of sentiments, mostly fear, from the media and the public on the Internet. Even NYT remarked on the apparently British obsession with refugees: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/world/europe/calais-migrant-crisis-british-media.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/world/europe/calais-migran... . Personally I welcome the recent positive stories about the plight of the refugees because it brings balance to the debate, and remind us that they are also human beings and merely want to escape from death and poverty. Who wouldn't run? I'm in no way likening you with Stalin but your quote regarding statistics brought back some chilling memories: "One man is a tragedy, a million statistics". We cannot and must not let go of humanity, not after so much tragedies. I know that it's completely unrealistic to take in all of them, and I think it's nonsense that one can just open up borders without proper checks - the argument that a terrorist might be disguised as refugee is a valid one, I think. But I also think that neighbouring countries should have responsibilities to accommodate as many refugees as they can handle - and that's where the problems come in. Despite the media pandering on the lack of action from neighbouring Arab countries, Jordan, Lebanon and even Turkey have been taking in millions of refugees for years, even decades, see http://www.mercycorps.org/articles/turkey-iraq-jordan-lebanon-syria/quick-facts-what-you-need-know-about-syria-crisis http://www.mercycorps.org/articles/turkey-iraq-jordan-lebano... . However it's starting to take its toll, and it's definitely not sustainable, which the refugees themselves could see. Lower wages, lower standards of living, growing dissent ... and then there's the next neighbour, rich and civilised: Europe. It's easy to see why it looks like the Promised Land! Sure, people smugglers exploit this ruthlessly and many have even died trying to reach Europe, but for those who are already at your doorstep, is it really necessary to question if you should take them in or not? We live on the same planet, and it's getting smaller. We used to think that what happens on the other side of the world won't affect us, but clearly globalisation and the Internet have linked us all up in a way more intimate than before. Sometimes I think that the concept of borders and countries are outdated[1]; we have so much more in common than differences that it's hard to feel "us vs them" now. And I think that's the key with the refugee crisis, and it's the same thing with other global issues like climate change: Division of privileges is increasingly becoming irrelevant and we've got to start thinking like global citizens. --- [1]though I can't see countries getting scrapped in the future, we're way too tribal for that (!)

icc97 11y ago

The 'resort to crime' isn't actually true [1]. We just think it is. [1]: http://phys.org/news/2012-06-people-undocumented-immigrants-crime.html http://phys.org/news/2012-06-people-undocumented-immigrants-...

peterfirefly 11y ago
Undocumented immigrants in the US who don't want to be discovered and deported are different from documented "refugees" (or actual refugees) in Europe. The latter don't have anywhere near the same reason to fear being deported or banished -- and they can be quite criminal with very few consequences (depending on the country they are in -- one of the reasons why Sweden is so popular at the moment).
librvf 11y ago
Unless I'm missing something, there's no actual data about per capita crime or criminality rates by country of origin or even immigration status in that article. That's the data that would actually be useful.

funkyy 11y ago

I am disgusted with the media recently. All western media are portraying this in a A/B approach. Either you accept migrants without hesitation, or you are fascist animal. Discussion is not allowed and despite growing public dislike of the process of accepting undocumented immigrants from war torn country that is full of ISIS fighters. Manipulation (majority of pictures show only women, children and few poorly dressed males), public hate towards people asking questions - this is fascist in my opinion. Unaddressed things like the fact that majority of immigrants are actually safe in Turkey and Lebanon immigrant camps, yet they decide to go to Europe for better life (so its not like they are in danger). Majority of young males getting to Europe (who in their right mind leaves their wifes and kids in war torn country to find a better life if that's the case? Or are they safe in immigration camps?). Funny thing - leftist parties are actually shooting themselves in the foot as within 5 years we will see huge rise in right wing parties taking over majority of votes. The "right thing to do" took over "right thing to do to our citizens". IMO this should be handled as follows: immigrants without visas get send to closed immigration camps, where they wait for paper work. If they pass, off they go, if they wont pass they can either stay in the camp or go back to the country of origin. This is how it was decade ago, not sure why all of sudden there was a change. Letting anyone in will cause rise in right wing movements fueled by increased terrorist activism from undocumented immigrants. Anyone saying "hey, this worked before" forgets, that before ALL immigrants were required to apply for proper visa before getting in, not like now, when they get them without any proper check so we dont know who gets in.

iaskwhy 11y ago
> Unaddressed things like the fact that majority of immigrants are actually safe in Turkey and Lebanon immigrant camps, yet they decide to go to Europe for better life (so its not like they are in danger). This is false and it's easy to confirm, just read a bit about the conditions of these camps, the lack of food, etc, and if you want to see it for yourself, check YouTube, it actually has a lot of in person short docs about most refugee camps. That's what I did when I had that question in my mind, why would they leave those camps to risk their lifes, and it's mostly due to the lack of food, hygiene, healthcare, and over-capacity. On a side-note, how can someone say something is unaddressed with the amount of information available on the internet? People just need to read a bit when in doubt and stop with false (and dangerous) assumptions.

atmosx 11y ago

Here is a good anti-refugee argument, from a refugee: https://vine.co/v/eTZO5j3q9Vp https://vine.co/v/eTZO5j3q9Vp