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I've been in favor of this for a long time, but I do have a more nuanced opinion in that I'm not sure if it's "time" yet. IMHO we're getting there, and when th
by api 11y ago
I've been in favor of this for a long time, but I do have a more nuanced opinion in that I'm not sure if it's "time" yet.
IMHO we're getting there, and when the (very likely) big wave of automation hits it will be time. The true automation wave has not happened yet, and when it hits it will make the outsourcing wave look like a minor disruption to the employment market. I fully expect that by the year 2100 most non-skilled labor will be obsolete.
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Edit:
There's one more "elephant in the living room" that I'd like to bring up in this thread before I'm outta here. I'll leave it here at the root since it's part of the core point I was making. Few bring up this fact since it leads to areas that many consider non-PC or impolite to discuss.
The average IQ is 100, and intelligence and other abilities are normally distributed within the population.
This is pretty much fixed on short-term human timescales unless we can widely deploy genetic engineering and brain-augmentation. Not only are these things massively hard -- probably harder than any of the crazy automation anyone is predicting -- but they're also going to face intense opposition on both religious and secular-ideological grounds. If you think the furor over GMO foods is excessive and irrational, imagine the furor over GMO humans.
It's also likely that those with the strongest opposition to genetic enhancement (on largely superstitious grounds) would be precisely those for whom it would be most beneficial. Conversely, those most enthusiastic to adopt it would be those who don't need it. As a result it would probably accelerate the trend I'm discussing here.
This means that if automation and other factors are constantly conspiring to increase the median skill level requirements of labor, eventually significant portions of humanity are simply going to fall off a cliff where the economic value of their labor becomes zero. From a purely economic point of view these are now worthless human beings. It doesn't matter if labor supply exceeds demand if the labor available to fill that demand can't do the work.
As automation gets better, this cliff will move up the bell curve. As it does, then due to the shape of a bell curve the number of people thus affected will increase exponentially. This is a recipe for blood in the streets -- and for totalitarianism as a response.
So we have a choice.
Option #1: consign those who fall off the edge to poverty and wall them off in ghettoes, and implement a totalitarian political regime with total surveillance of the entire population to deal with the perpetual undercurrent of crime and terrorism that this will create. The result basically looks like a B-grade cyberpunk film.
Option #2: admit to ourselves that we are entering a post-capitalist early-post-scarcity phase of development and implement some level of basic income.
I'd go with option #2. Not only is it better for humanity at large, it's also better for me as I don't fancy living world #1 even if I did get to live in one of the posh totalitarian enclaves.
- fweespeech 11y agoAs interesting as it would be to have this in the near future, I'd agree with you. We would need a semi-permanent 16%+ U6 unemployment before its likely tho. As long as ~90% of the people who want full time jobs can find full time jobs, there simply isn't going to be enough momentum for it. When automation cuts out the bottom 10% or so of the employment market is when it'd happen.
- ThrustVectoring 11y agoI'd like to mention that disability rates are another good measure for what you're looking for, since things like "local lumber mill closes, former employees aren't educated enough to get a job afterwards" cause people to go on disability benefits.
- harryh 11y agoIf you look at what most people were doing in 1930 most of those jobs are obsolete. And yet most people are still working. I'd be pretty surprised if 2015-2100 turns out to be much different from 1930 - 2015.
- afterburner 11y agoThis ain't your grand-daddy's automation.
- astrocat 11y agoWhat I think what most people count on is the inanely fast ACCELERATION of technological progress. The amount of advancement between 1930 and 2015 will be orders of magnitude less than 2015-2100.
- ekr 11y agoWhy do you say that? I think the technological progress will continue to grow exponentially. There are more researchers now than at any point in human history. The economic incentives are still at least as big (relatively speaking). At the moment there are many industries with great potential for applying machine learning and various other automation techniques. And considering that many leading AI scientists are expecting smarter-than-human AI within this century (or the start of the next one), I certainly fail to see your point. Anyway, there is still a lot of room for exponential growth of human knowledge, in a lot of fields.