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The best evidence I have seen for falling Chinese demand for natural resources is over-capacity, and not some tranistion to a services based economy. http://ww

by WDCDev 11y ago

The best evidence I have seen for falling Chinese demand for natural resources is over-capacity, and not some tranistion to a services based economy. http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/07/more-pain-ahead-for-china-steel.html http://www.cnbc.com/2015/05/07/more-pain-ahead-for-china-ste... I think we are reaching a stasis point in the global economy. Aging populations across Europe, Japan and the US are driving demand lower. Developing economies could pick up the slack, and China has been trying to get their population to save less and spend more, but the results haven't been that great so far.

saryant 11y ago
The services sector is now a larger share of Chinese output than industry.
- WDCDev 11y ago
  Last I saw it was about an even when expressed as a percentage of GDP (around 44%). I don't think the that really invalidates my main point. The Chinese have a massive industrial over-capacity that will have to be either liquidated or supported via the PBoC.
poutine 11y ago
China is aging as well, their percentage of working adults peaked recently and is now declining. Interestingly while Europe has this problem as well, the US does not thanks in a large part due to immigration.
- Daishiman 11y ago
  The issue is that the immigrants are also having less children, and the countries where they're from are also drastically reducing their birth rates. Honestly, as an environmentalist it's not a bad thing at all, since the peak in resource consumtion will come about either because of a voluntary population reduction, or catastrophic mismanagement of growth. However, we probably have never had a similar situation in human history, and I don't know how our economies will adapt.
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
aswanson 11y ago
Wait, don't tell me this charlatan is actually right this time: http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-demographic-cliff-2013-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-demographic-cliff-...

by WDCDev 11y ago

saryant 11y ago

The services sector is now a larger share of Chinese output than industry.

WDCDev 11y ago
Last I saw it was about an even when expressed as a percentage of GDP (around 44%). I don't think the that really invalidates my main point. The Chinese have a massive industrial over-capacity that will have to be either liquidated or supported via the PBoC.

poutine 11y ago

China is aging as well, their percentage of working adults peaked recently and is now declining. Interestingly while Europe has this problem as well, the US does not thanks in a large part due to immigration.

Daishiman 11y ago
The issue is that the immigrants are also having less children, and the countries where they're from are also drastically reducing their birth rates. Honestly, as an environmentalist it's not a bad thing at all, since the peak in resource consumtion will come about either because of a voluntary population reduction, or catastrophic mismanagement of growth. However, we probably have never had a similar situation in human history, and I don't know how our economies will adapt.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]

aswanson 11y ago

Wait, don't tell me this charlatan is actually right this time: http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-demographic-cliff-2013-12 http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-dent-demographic-cliff-...