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Scientists Replicated 100 Psychology Studies,Fewer Than 50% Got the Same Results
- DanAndersen 11y agoReplications often don't happen, because it's not considered "new," and who wants to pay for something that's not new? Who can get accolades and titles and journal articles and tenure and HIGHER IMPACT FACTORS out of the drudgery of replication? There are a lot of science popularizers out there who focus a lot on the power of science, and its ability to self-correct. And given their audience, it's probably a good message to get out there. It's a lot better than most other approaches we've had throughout history. But I think they can give the wrong impression of science (often spoken of as SCIENCE!!!! with exclamation marks) as this process delivered to humanity on stone tablets from on high, and with a little too much trust in the idea that "the arc of science is long but it bends toward correctness." Science is a frustratingly, painfully, agonizingly human process, made up of people in various organizations, with their own lives and goals and objectives. It's a process where there's been enough of a correlation between what its participants want, and what accuracy/truth/improvement demands, that it's worked pretty well so far, and it gets good results eventually. But there are also perverse incentives in organizations and personal failings in its participants. Things like funders' quest for short-term results, the desire to only back proven winners, the drive to publish or perish, etc etc. Goodhart's law: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure." I guess it's a little like the slow, slow process of natural selection. Given enough time, you can get some pretty impressive, complex stuff out of it, but you can also get stuck in a local maximum for millions of years. I don't know what the solution is. Perhaps it would be nice for graduation requirements for master's/PhD programs to require attempted replication of some existing works -- but then there's the risk of selecting things that are easy to replicate. Or maybe some mandatory percentage of research grants going toward a common replication pool. Setting up a good incentives structure is hard, because any institution that constrains itself by following new rules "for the good of science" will find itself falling behind in comparison with institutions who only work on the new exciting stuff and get more of the media attention. I feel fortunate that I'm in computer science, where a lot of our work is inherently easily replicable due to the nature of code (of course, once it gets into user studies there's so much wiggle room that the same problems arise), and I always appreciate when a research group releases testable, compilable, documented code alongside their papers. I'd like to see that sort of practice be more mandatory in CS, but when official prestige comes from journals only, the incentive structures don't reward CS researchers for making maintainable, understandable code -- just code that gets the results and pretty pictures. Academic code is infamous for being poorly-architected. ---- Along some of these lines, it's always a good read to go through Feynman's "Cargo Cult Science": http://neurotheory.columbia.edu/~ken/cargo_cult.html http://neurotheory.columbia.edu/~ken/cargo_cult.html
- astazangasta 11y agoThere is a profound problem with the scientific process that I have been worrying about that rarely gets mentioned: The appeal and power of science is that you propose a model and then test it with evidence. With strong evidence you can validate the predictive efficacy of your model. However, the model is not "true", it is only predictive. Furthermore, it's only predictive to the extent that the evidence backs it up. The problem with this process is that it hangs entirely on the evidence. The models themselves do NOT emerge from the scientific process; they emerge from whatever - prejudice, confabulation, logic, supposition, etc. In other words, the original conjecture of a scientific model is merely a product of the pre-existing beliefs of the investigator. Coupling poor evidence to this sort of conjecture produces "science" that is simply supposition or bias with a veneer of credibility. Given the widespread abuse of methodology (p-hacking, poor understanding of statistics, small or unrepresentative sample sizes, not reporting negative experiments, bad experimental design) this means a lot of "science" is merely varnished prejudice.
- dj-wonk 11y agoI don't see this as a problem. Perhaps I define some concepts differently. As I see it, the scientific method is a good way to test a model against reality. It is less suited to be a "generative" process for making models. (There are other ways to test models too: internal consistency, interpretability, and so on.) Iteration, intuition, creativity, variation, intelligence, luck, guesswork, and more are what create theories. I'm not saying one could not using more "technical" or "rigorous" ways to construct models -- there are, of course, such methods. I'm just saying that "science" (in the Chalmers sense) is about mostly about testability of a model against evidence.
- astazangasta 11y ago>Iteration, intuition, creativity, variation, intelligence, luck, guesswork, and more are what create theories. These are all very positive. How about: racism, misogyny, bias, jealousy, and stubbornness. These, also, can feed into the creation of theories, and do. And, again, the point is that this process is only as good as the evidence; when the evidence is lacking, we're left with only the investigator's expertise to justify the model. That's not science.
- joesmo 11y agoIt's psychology. How is this surprising or even news at all?
- onezeno 11y agoJust because something isn't surprising does not mean it isn't newsworthy.
- mc32 11y agoOne of the things that bother me about the news, say, npr, is that they often cite studies to bolster their positions, but they never mention the confidence in the studies nor alternate theories which may explain some of the undesired state. No, it's always in terms of things which will whet their middle brow supporters and pander to their pet agendas. Be it water rationing, gentrification, organics, immigration issues, taxation, etc. I mention npr because I listen to them but I'm assured by others it's the same case with news on the right and abortion, religion, guns and the like. Is there a way to escape the echo chambers?
- navait 11y agoDo you have infinite time and omniscence? If not there isn't. If Morning Edition is an echo chamber, all media is.
- mc32 11y agoMy feeling I that it's a middle brow feelgood machine. It says the things and supports the things which make middle brow listeners like myself happy. Oh, good, they will take care of my guilt for me simultaneously supporting their/our pet causes, so now I don't have to. Npr is not self critical beyond the surface. It's a given their causes are the right causes. Let's say the housing crisis in major metros. There is never a comprehensive look. What's good, what's bad. It's gentrification is driving out the poor wheelchair bound immigrant who teaches math at the local school, of the market, therefore we know it's bad by definition. I want to know What is done in china, India, Britain, Germany, Nigeria when they face "gentrification" which they do too. Nope, it's a given their take is the right take. Make me happy, make me feel good, feel guilty for me.
- mmorris 11y agoDo you ever listen to On The Media[0]? It's also an NPR show, so perhaps it runs into similar issues, but I think they tend to be fairly skeptical and ask questions about these kind of issues (media bias, etc.). Warning: it can be extremely depressing to listen to specific examples of how poor a job the media does of actually covering "The News". [0]: http://www.onthemedia.org/ http://www.onthemedia.org/
- arca_vorago 11y agoAfter spending time sysadmining in biotech and as a side-effect reading lots of papers in the field, my confidence in the validity of many scientific papers has shot way down. Coming from outside the scientific/academic arena, my view is that the system has become a resume/job padding tool for far too many people, who have simply learned how to A) hit all the main logic points the publishers/journals look for so they get published, and B) find ingenious ways to get their names attached to papers even if they were barely involved in at all. So tired of hearing X has been cited in over Y Z-journal papers! as a way of touting their scientific merit.
- dj-wonk 11y agoRight. How often do you hear people say "_ studies support my claim, _ studies controvert my claim, and _ studies are agnostic on my claim?" That would be more intellectually honest.
- DanAndersen 11y agoI suppose it's like any other metric, like software developers preening their GitHub activity logs so they always look active and constantly working). With so many PhDs and not enough positions, those in charge of hiring need ways to quantify the relative worth/ROI of applicants. This leads to a focus on things like impact factor, which correlate with but don't equate to what we actually care about. As with everything, you get what you measure. I'd like to learn more about the history of the Scientific Revolution, the Royal Society and all that. Probably the politics and human-nature is constant (Newton/Leibniz conflict is well-known), but I wonder if there was an impact on the quality of science by the fact that a lot of the research was done by old rich aristocrats whose livelihoods didn't depend on their scientific results -- although I guess their reputations did depend on it. Is that similar to or different from modern academics with tenure? Does the fact that there's a tenure selection process end up selecting good academics, or those who can work the system?
- dj-wonk 11y agoI wish more scientists studied meta-analysis: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meta-analysis; an area of study specifically tasked with the challenge of synthesizing various study results. Roughly speaking, each study is treated as a (weighted) observation and then combined using statistics. To put it another way, interpreting empirical results requires (or should require) statistics from bottom to top.
- astazangasta 11y agoTo put it yet another way, overemphasis on statistics is a huge part of the problem. It is extremely difficult to get statistics right. Am I applying a relevant test? Even if it is relevant, is it too sensitive? Is my dataset unbiased or have I controlled for all of the significant biases? Multiple test corrections are also some of the most useless statistical tests you can perform. They're basically only useful for reducing confidence to reasonable levels. Hundreds of bad tests cannot yield a useful scientific inference through sheer volume. Meta-analysis is interesting, but it's ultimately a shoddy attempt to patch over the much larger problem of widespread methodological failure. We can't do bad science for decades and then expect meta-analysis to yield new insights; at best it can serve to expose the poor quality of that work.
- dj-wonk 11y ago> Meta-analysis is interesting, but it's ultimately a shoddy attempt to patch over the much larger problem of widespread methodological failure. I think I know what you are getting at. Let me try to unpack what I mean, and I would like to see if you would agree... I agree that "widespread methodological failure" is a problem with science in the real world. However, by your writing, it would seem that you attack meta-analysis as a technique. 1. Meta-analysis (MA) is a solid technique and not shoddy. I'm not saying it works equally well in all situations, but I am saying that it works better than not using it. :) 2. MA cannot "correct" one underlying study that is flawed. (This is obvious; doing statistics with a sample size of one is silly.) 3. Nor can MA correct for a systemic problem in underlying studies. 4. However, in the same way that statistics can be resilient over random errors in measurement, MA can handle studies of varying quality, provided that they do not have significant errors pointing in the same directions. (This is the often claimed, but less-often tested, assumption that errors are randomly distributed.)
- afarrell 11y agoHere is the paper (with ~190 co-authors!): http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6251/aac4716 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6251/aac4716
- thaumaturgy 11y agoThe Reddit thread on this article is pretty good: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3imphg/scientists_replicated_100_recent_psychology/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3imphg/scientists_... There's a comment from one of the paper's co-authors that will probably need repeating here (https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3imphg/scientists_replicated_100_recent_psychology/cuhtyv6 https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3imphg/scientists_...): "To those wanting to dismiss psychological science as "cult science" based on these findings, note how ironic your response is. You're discrediting the very people whose data you are using to back up your claim. This massive, groundbreaking project was conducted on psychological science by psychological scientists. In my view, psychological scientists are among the most dedicated and rigorous scientists there are. No other field has had the courage to instantiate a project like this. And I am sure that many of you would be shocked to find out how low the reproducibility rates are in other fields. Problems of non-reproducibility, publication bias, data faking, lack of transparency, and the like plague every scientific field. The people you are labeling as "cult" scientists are leading the movement to improve science of all types in a much needed way." Also, the current top comment quotes the following from the paper: "Any temptation to interpret these results as a defeat for psychology, or science more generally, must contend with the fact that this project demonstrates science behaving as it should. Hypotheses abound that the present culture in science may be negatively affecting the reproducibility of findings. An ideological response would discount the arguments, discredit the sources, and proceed merrily along. The scientific process is not ideological. Science does not always provide comfort for what we wish to be; it confronts us with what is" And another co-author chimed in (https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3imphg/scientists_replicated_100_recent_psychology/cui2nir https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/3imphg/scientists_...): "The real interesting part is seeing how other disciplines hold up in terms of reproducibility. A new project has been started: Reproducibility Project: Cancer Biology, they will try to replicate 50 studies. I am very curious how this will turn out, I highly encourage other disciplines to also start a reproducibility project to test how consistent their findings actually will be. I don't see these results as discouraging, instead, I see it as a big step in developing scientific methods. Now we know which methods and standards might be wrong, we can try to fix it (for example by developing guidlines)."
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- castratikron 11y agoWhat's the significance of the picture at the top of the article?
- bjterry 11y agoIt is a stock photo that has the title "Personality Disorder"[1] and has the tag "psychology." So the editors or whomever searched shutterstock for "psychology" and scrolled through, saw that they liked that one, and chose it for the article. I doubt if there is any greater significance than that. 1: http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-174194297/stock-photo-personality-disorder.html?src=jQL9o-dXz-L7wrc2j9AEAg-1-29 http://www.shutterstock.com/pic-174194297/stock-photo-person...
- leephillips 11y agohttp://www.mindsofmalady.com/2015/04/improving-lithium-treatment-in-bipolar.html http://www.mindsofmalady.com/2015/04/improving-lithium-treat... (For example. See bjterry's reply below.)
- sctb 11y agoYesterday's discussion: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10131387 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10131387
- jtedward 11y agoHello everybody, I was an intern at the Center For Science, who are organizers of this reproducibility study. It's kind of strange to me that the COS's first mention on HN is this study when they have been working on a large open source project for a few years now, but it's obviously a welcome surprise. Anyway check it out, https://github.com/CenterForOpenScience/osf.io https://github.com/CenterForOpenScience/osf.io