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Allow me to barge in with my armchar financial analysis ... If you check the Baltic Dry Index , it's started dropping in the past few weeks indicating a slowdo

Allow me to barge in with my armchar financial analysis ... If you check the Baltic Dry Index , it's started dropping in the past few weeks indicating a slowdown in global shipping. Similar for crude prices. There was a similar pattern in 2008 (though the reasons this time are a bit different) with crude and the Baltic index starting to tumble in August before the market nosedived in September. Not that we will repeat 2008 but we definitely have a leading indicator for renewed weakness in the global economy.

branchless 11y ago
And this won't be 2008. For starters they can't cut to "emergency" rates.
jcfrei 11y ago
yeah, in my opinion the decline in shipping is far more worrying than the recent stock market crashes.
adventured 11y ago
It's far worse than even the baltic is indicating: "Shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe fell by 26.7 percent to $469 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ended on Friday" "It was the third consecutive week of falling freight rates on the world’s busiest route and rates are now nearly 60 percent lower than three weeks ago." http://gcaptain.com/asia-europe-container-freight-rates-have-fallen-off-a-cliff/ http://gcaptain.com/asia-europe-container-freight-rates-have...
noja 11y ago
Here is the chart: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND Can you explain why it worries you in a bit more detail? The drop doesn't look so bad.
- thewarrior 11y ago
  The drop doesn't look so bad.. But (And I don't think it is) if this is 2008 redux then it has only started dropping .. :)
Balgair 11y ago
Honestly, the BDI hasn't really changed that much as compared to the 2007 heydays : http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm . There was some increase in the 'green shoots' days, but it's been bumping along since then. If anything, I think that means the world economy hasn't really ramped since then. Still, I'd love another opinion by someone that recognizes the value of watching the BDI.

branchless 11y ago

And this won't be 2008. For starters they can't cut to "emergency" rates.

jcfrei 11y ago

yeah, in my opinion the decline in shipping is far more worrying than the recent stock market crashes.

adventured 11y ago

It's far worse than even the baltic is indicating: "Shipping freight rates for transporting containers from ports in Asia to Northern Europe fell by 26.7 percent to $469 per 20-foot container (TEU) in the week ended on Friday" "It was the third consecutive week of falling freight rates on the world’s busiest route and rates are now nearly 60 percent lower than three weeks ago." http://gcaptain.com/asia-europe-container-freight-rates-have-fallen-off-a-cliff/ http://gcaptain.com/asia-europe-container-freight-rates-have...

noja 11y ago

Here is the chart: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND Can you explain why it worries you in a bit more detail? The drop doesn't look so bad.

thewarrior 11y ago
The drop doesn't look so bad.. But (And I don't think it is) if this is 2008 redux then it has only started dropping .. :)

Balgair 11y ago

Honestly, the BDI hasn't really changed that much as compared to the 2007 heydays : http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm . There was some increase in the 'green shoots' days, but it's been bumping along since then. If anything, I think that means the world economy hasn't really ramped since then. Still, I'd love another opinion by someone that recognizes the value of watching the BDI.