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Curious that the author suggests an explosive rate of improvement in robot performance but then fails to mention any positive examples of robot performance. In

Curious that the author suggests an explosive rate of improvement in robot performance but then fails to mention any positive examples of robot performance. Instead the entire article focuses on positive rates of improvement in many constituent technologies needed when building robots. Judging from the inability of every robot in the most recent DARPA challenge to even get back up after a fall, I'd say today's robots have a long way to go before a Cambrian level of explosive growth is shortly forthcoming.

adventured 11y ago
I too am surprised at the lack of examples. There are numerous. Robotics used in the automobile industry are extraordinary examples of robotic performance, and have been for decades. They only keep getting better. Kiva Systems has produced extremely productive robots. Over time (eg 20 years) they're guaranteed to replace a hundred thousand plus human jobs. The concept that Kiva represents of warehouse and stock automation, will replace a lot more jobs than that over that time duration. Intuitive Surgical's sytems are performance robotics in action. Robotic surgery will get better non-stop for decades to come, eventually being vastly superior as a form of surgery vs traditional non-assisted means. UAVs are human controlled robotics. They've become increasingly critical platforms to all major militaries world-wide. That will only grow in importance and complexity by the year. Consumer drones are exploding in popularity, and are another example of human controlled robotics. There will be millions of these in just the US in ten years. The total economic impact will measure in the hundreds of billions of dollars in regards to what drones will affect and improve. iRobot's home robots (eg the Roomba), and comparable competitor products, have shown dramatic improvements in performance since the day the company was founded.
robotresearcher 11y ago
Every robot but one. The CMU robot got up after a fall. Edit on why no examples: This isn't a review paper for a popular audience. It's a paper on economic perspectives and he says just what he needs to about where he sees the opportunities. The reader can easily find examples elsewhere.
JoeAltmaier 11y ago
More optimistic: the first auto-driving-car DARPA challenge was a complete disaster. Just a few years later, they rocked. Why? Because the 1st test was just the hardware guys putting together the bones, sensors and power plant. Once the software guys had that, then impressive behavior changes started happening. I think the next time, all the DARPA-challenge bots will be sprinting around, doing gymnastics and talking to you.

adventured 11y ago

I too am surprised at the lack of examples. There are numerous. Robotics used in the automobile industry are extraordinary examples of robotic performance, and have been for decades. They only keep getting better. Kiva Systems has produced extremely productive robots. Over time (eg 20 years) they're guaranteed to replace a hundred thousand plus human jobs. The concept that Kiva represents of warehouse and stock automation, will replace a lot more jobs than that over that time duration. Intuitive Surgical's sytems are performance robotics in action. Robotic surgery will get better non-stop for decades to come, eventually being vastly superior as a form of surgery vs traditional non-assisted means. UAVs are human controlled robotics. They've become increasingly critical platforms to all major militaries world-wide. That will only grow in importance and complexity by the year. Consumer drones are exploding in popularity, and are another example of human controlled robotics. There will be millions of these in just the US in ten years. The total economic impact will measure in the hundreds of billions of dollars in regards to what drones will affect and improve. iRobot's home robots (eg the Roomba), and comparable competitor products, have shown dramatic improvements in performance since the day the company was founded.

robotresearcher 11y ago

Every robot but one. The CMU robot got up after a fall. Edit on why no examples: This isn't a review paper for a popular audience. It's a paper on economic perspectives and he says just what he needs to about where he sees the opportunities. The reader can easily find examples elsewhere.

JoeAltmaier 11y ago

More optimistic: the first auto-driving-car DARPA challenge was a complete disaster. Just a few years later, they rocked. Why? Because the 1st test was just the hardware guys putting together the bones, sensors and power plant. Once the software guys had that, then impressive behavior changes started happening. I think the next time, all the DARPA-challenge bots will be sprinting around, doing gymnastics and talking to you.