3 ms·

Did they say 2047 instead of 2050 in order to make it sound like less of a guess?

InclinedPlane 17y ago
Seriously. 38 years in the future? That's the same span as from 1909 (the dawn of heavier than air flight and radio) to 2047 (computers, nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, ballistic missiles, radar, submarines, jet aircraft). And from there to 1985 (guided missiles, ICBMs, satellites, GPS). With such a long time frame damned near any prediction may come to pass. It's plenty likely that by 2047 we'll not only have fully autonomous combat aircraft but we'll have automated aircraft fabricators and aircraft fabricator fabricators. It's almost as valid to say that we'll be fighting sentient robots in hand-to-hand combat in a post-apocalyptic world in 2047.
- joe_the_user 17y ago
  It's almost as valid to say that we'll be fighting sentient robots in hand-to-hand combat in a post-apocalyptic world in 2047. Hey, perhaps those are the decision-making drones they were talking about!
- wayne 17y ago
  Your point is a good one but I think it's somewhat cheating to pick 1909-1947 as your arbitrary 38 year period since both world wars happened during that period. A world war has a way of spurring innovation in killing technologies more than anything else. I guess it's possible we have two more world wars between now and 2047, but that seems unlikely to me.
  - InclinedPlane 17y ago
    Well, I picked two periods, 1909-1947 and 1947-1985, in one two world wars occurred, in the other the Cold War occurred. But that's the point isn't it? Over time history happens. The time line is not a steady state. People thought that the end of the Cold War was the end of history, but that wasn't the case at all, plenty of history happened and is still happening, throughout the world. Plenty more history will happen in the next 38 years. Perhaps that history will include a war between nuclear powers (somewhat unlikely) or perhaps it will include things we cannot anticipate today, but it's a bit silly to imagine that we can predict what the technology of 2047 will look like. That's BDUF at its worst. Better to look at the technology needs of today while planning for flexibility and be able to iterate rapidly if we see a need for change down the road. If the US had locked itself into some grand technology road map in 1909 it would have most assuredly lost WWII because it could not have anticipated the technological needs of that war.
anigbrowl 17y ago
I'm sure there's some sort of methodology employed (eg average time from first patent filing commercial application of something to military ubiquity) but it does sound rather like the sort of claims that pseudoscientists make. I'd guess we'll see this between 2018-2025. The necessary technology is mostly here, the main obstacles to implementation are ethical and political. I would prefer not to see autonomous weapon platforms at all, but suspect that the tactical advantage they confer will be too great to ignore, especially when set against the lives of service personnel (of the side with the technology ready to go).
SlowOnTheUptake 17y ago
The US Air Force was established in 1947.
robotrout 17y ago
It's a long term plan, to use to set research policy, budget allocation, and all the other things that people use long term plans for. Putting a date on it's completion just seems like common sense. If you're dreaming, you say "someday", but if you're a little more ambitious, than you set a date, so you can measure your progress.

Seriously. 38 years in the future? That's the same span as from 1909 (the dawn of heavier than air flight and radio) to 2047 (computers, nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, ballistic missiles, radar, submarines, jet aircraft). And from there to 1985 (guided missiles, ICBMs, satellites, GPS). With such a long time frame damned near any prediction may come to pass. It's plenty likely that by 2047 we'll not only have fully autonomous combat aircraft but we'll have automated aircraft fabricators and aircraft fabricator fabricators. It's almost as valid to say that we'll be fighting sentient robots in hand-to-hand combat in a post-apocalyptic world in 2047.

joe_the_user 17y ago
It's almost as valid to say that we'll be fighting sentient robots in hand-to-hand combat in a post-apocalyptic world in 2047. Hey, perhaps those are the decision-making drones they were talking about!
wayne 17y ago
Your point is a good one but I think it's somewhat cheating to pick 1909-1947 as your arbitrary 38 year period since both world wars happened during that period. A world war has a way of spurring innovation in killing technologies more than anything else. I guess it's possible we have two more world wars between now and 2047, but that seems unlikely to me.
- InclinedPlane 17y ago
  Well, I picked two periods, 1909-1947 and 1947-1985, in one two world wars occurred, in the other the Cold War occurred. But that's the point isn't it? Over time history happens. The time line is not a steady state. People thought that the end of the Cold War was the end of history, but that wasn't the case at all, plenty of history happened and is still happening, throughout the world. Plenty more history will happen in the next 38 years. Perhaps that history will include a war between nuclear powers (somewhat unlikely) or perhaps it will include things we cannot anticipate today, but it's a bit silly to imagine that we can predict what the technology of 2047 will look like. That's BDUF at its worst. Better to look at the technology needs of today while planning for flexibility and be able to iterate rapidly if we see a need for change down the road. If the US had locked itself into some grand technology road map in 1909 it would have most assuredly lost WWII because it could not have anticipated the technological needs of that war.

anigbrowl 17y ago

I'm sure there's some sort of methodology employed (eg average time from first patent filing commercial application of something to military ubiquity) but it does sound rather like the sort of claims that pseudoscientists make. I'd guess we'll see this between 2018-2025. The necessary technology is mostly here, the main obstacles to implementation are ethical and political. I would prefer not to see autonomous weapon platforms at all, but suspect that the tactical advantage they confer will be too great to ignore, especially when set against the lives of service personnel (of the side with the technology ready to go).

SlowOnTheUptake 17y ago

The US Air Force was established in 1947.

robotrout 17y ago

It's a long term plan, to use to set research policy, budget allocation, and all the other things that people use long term plans for. Putting a date on it's completion just seems like common sense. If you're dreaming, you say "someday", but if you're a little more ambitious, than you set a date, so you can measure your progress.