4 ms·

And which particular empirical dataset is giving you cause for concern?

by vixen99 11y ago

7952 11y ago
Planet earth is not a lab with perfectly controlled conditions. It is a highly complex system with problems that are difficult to measure directly. Ignoring things that are dfficult to measure is a recipe for bias.
fsloth 11y ago
For me the current industrialization launched extinction event [1] is giving me the creeps. The last time it happened anything larger than a cat did not do so well. Yeah, we humans are an exception and soon we will grow meat in labs and vegetables in city gardens, so we might fare better than that. The difference with this and historical predicted catastrophes that did not happen, is that it's actually happening right now. As an example the malthusian catastrophe that never happened was that Malthus was predicting future values of population versus food production (thus giving yet another failed apocalyptic prediction) whereas the extinction is actually happening, right now. [1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/22/the-earth-is-on-the-brink-of-a-sixth-mass-extinction-scientists-say-and-its-humans-fault/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/22...
- saiya-jin 11y ago
  jeeez, you enjoy living scared to death about impending doom here or there? I don't get people like you, apparently spending too much time on internet. go out and have some fun :) doomsayers running around are nothing new for last couple of thousands of years. you know what I think? it's a character weakness, and a big one in this case. grow some balls, look at positive things happening, have some faith (not religious one, in mankind), and for the-guy-on-the-cloud sake, don't poison others with your inner frustrations/scares/half-empty glass.
  - Daishiman 11y ago
    No, the difference is that, unlike the "last couple thousands of years", we actually understand out environment very, very well, to the point where out predictions of climate have not been failing, and when they do, it's because we have underestimated everything. I would call finding the positive side of seeing the end of the planet as you know it a serious case of delusion, at the very least, and at worst the sort of attitude that's gotten us here.
  - fsloth 11y ago
    Like I said, the difference between the forecasts of past crackpots, and the current extinction event, is that the crackpots made crazy predictions with poor understanding of the world, whereas the extinction event is an observable fact As in 'lets see how many species whe have left - oo, there goes one... and there another'. Human beings have made a great impact to our environment and it saddens me an intelligent person such as you can bypass it with a shrug. Do you remember the slight problem we had with CFC compounds destroying the ozone layer in the 80's? Well, it was an observable fact - and it was fixed by placing controls. So, less people die of skin cancer which I think is nice. With your attitude we should have just let the CFC flow and tell australians not to worry so much about increasing cancer rates but rather just be cool and wear longer sleeves. I have great faith in humanitys spirit and skill, but we are now a species which operates on a planetary scale and we should acknowledge it. I would like to avoid ecological disasters before they become undoable ala easter islands.
Gravityloss 11y ago
I guess radiative properties of CO2 in the lab, that was already thought of centuries ago. Also the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere plotted against time. It was news back then and some people started getting worried because of that. Since Keeling started measuring it in 1958, it took some years for the trend to show.

And which particular empirical dataset is giving you cause for concern?

by vixen99 11y ago

And which particular empirical dataset is giving you cause for concern?

7952 11y ago

Planet earth is not a lab with perfectly controlled conditions. It is a highly complex system with problems that are difficult to measure directly. Ignoring things that are dfficult to measure is a recipe for bias.

fsloth 11y ago

For me the current industrialization launched extinction event [1] is giving me the creeps. The last time it happened anything larger than a cat did not do so well. Yeah, we humans are an exception and soon we will grow meat in labs and vegetables in city gardens, so we might fare better than that. The difference with this and historical predicted catastrophes that did not happen, is that it's actually happening right now. As an example the malthusian catastrophe that never happened was that Malthus was predicting future values of population versus food production (thus giving yet another failed apocalyptic prediction) whereas the extinction is actually happening, right now. [1] http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/22/the-earth-is-on-the-brink-of-a-sixth-mass-extinction-scientists-say-and-its-humans-fault/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/06/22...

saiya-jin 11y ago
jeeez, you enjoy living scared to death about impending doom here or there? I don't get people like you, apparently spending too much time on internet. go out and have some fun :) doomsayers running around are nothing new for last couple of thousands of years. you know what I think? it's a character weakness, and a big one in this case. grow some balls, look at positive things happening, have some faith (not religious one, in mankind), and for the-guy-on-the-cloud sake, don't poison others with your inner frustrations/scares/half-empty glass.
- Daishiman 11y ago
  No, the difference is that, unlike the "last couple thousands of years", we actually understand out environment very, very well, to the point where out predictions of climate have not been failing, and when they do, it's because we have underestimated everything. I would call finding the positive side of seeing the end of the planet as you know it a serious case of delusion, at the very least, and at worst the sort of attitude that's gotten us here.
- fsloth 11y ago
  Like I said, the difference between the forecasts of past crackpots, and the current extinction event, is that the crackpots made crazy predictions with poor understanding of the world, whereas the extinction event is an observable fact As in 'lets see how many species whe have left - oo, there goes one... and there another'. Human beings have made a great impact to our environment and it saddens me an intelligent person such as you can bypass it with a shrug. Do you remember the slight problem we had with CFC compounds destroying the ozone layer in the 80's? Well, it was an observable fact - and it was fixed by placing controls. So, less people die of skin cancer which I think is nice. With your attitude we should have just let the CFC flow and tell australians not to worry so much about increasing cancer rates but rather just be cool and wear longer sleeves. I have great faith in humanitys spirit and skill, but we are now a species which operates on a planetary scale and we should acknowledge it. I would like to avoid ecological disasters before they become undoable ala easter islands.

Gravityloss 11y ago

I guess radiative properties of CO2 in the lab, that was already thought of centuries ago. Also the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere plotted against time. It was news back then and some people started getting worried because of that. Since Keeling started measuring it in 1958, it took some years for the trend to show.