Right off the bat my reaction is that I would not expect watches to earn a real return on average over the long term. That is if I could buy an index on watche

Right off the bat my reaction is that I would not expect watches to earn a real return on average over the long term. That is if I could buy an index on watches where I owned a share in thousands of watches heavily diversified across the market I would expect it to match inflation. The watches don't actually increase in value IOW unlike say companies and economies which grow. The evidence for this isn't the most convincing, but it's the conclusion Rick Ferri came to when looking at commodities like oil, or gold, and similar investments to watches like fine art over the long term. And sure enough the timeline cherry picked by the article is 10 years.