xpe

24 ms·

271.
by xpe 10mo ago
> So is the model going to be publicly available, just like those dangerous pre-1913 texts, or not? 1. This implies a false equivalence. Releasing a new interactive AI model is indeed different in significant and practical ways from the
272.
by xpe 10mo ago
I don't know your priorities, but I will say this: beware the recency bias: don't overweight on a news story. Instead, take at least five minutes make a list of your concerns. > I should probably start to work on self-hosting n
273.
by xpe 10mo ago
I offer some metaphors bundled into a claim: Silver bullets almost never beat fraud. Better to steel yourself for a never-ending grind against a horde of nameless adversaries. I asked Gemini for some follow-ups, and lo! they are interesting
274.
by xpe 10mo ago
> Then they are free to stop offering gift cards. That's easy to say. [1] [2] [3] But reality is harder than that; keep in mind: - Fraud is complex (many moving parts, many pathways) - Fraud is adversarial (whack a mole, but w
275.
by xpe 10mo ago
I appreciate your clarity, thanks. There is something really interesting about people (which I think I'm borrowing from Atomic Habits by James Clear): Every time you take an action in service of a goal, it helps prove to yourself ,
276.
by xpe 10mo ago
From "How to know what you really want" by Luke Burgis [1]: > There are two kinds of desire, thin and thick. Thick desires are like layers of rock that have been built up throughout the course of our lives. These are desires th
277.
by xpe 10mo ago
> A thick desire is one that changes you in the process of pursuing it. > > A thin desire is one that doesn't. > > ... > > The person who checks their notifications is [a thin desire], > after
278.
by xpe 10mo ago
I will preemptively grant the narrow point that if a project demonstrates poor quality in its code or text (i.e. what I mean when I say "slop"), it can dissuade potential users. However, the "Why AIsbom?" section strikes
279.
by xpe 10mo ago
Ah, in case it didn't come across clearly, my conclusion isn't to blame the individuals. My assessment is to seek out better communication patterns, which is partly about "technology" and partly about culture (expectatio
280.
by xpe 10mo ago
Looking around at the comments, I have a birds-eye view. People are quite skilled at jumping to conclusions or assuming their POV is the only one. Consider this simplified scenario to illustrate: - X happened - Person P says &quot
281.
by xpe 10mo ago
Presumably this is well-known among people that already know about this. P.S. In the hopes of making this more than just a sarcastic comment, the question of "How do people bootstrap knowledge?" is kind of interesting. [1] > To
282.
by xpe 10mo ago
> your suggestion is to treat it like a person but (surprise surprise) you don't have any specific ideas of how and why that works. your idea just sounds like marketing This is unnecessarily mean. Please review https://ne
283.
by xpe 10mo ago
> A circle of competence is the subject area which matches a person's skills or expertise. The concept was developed by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger as what they call a mental model, a codified form of business acumen, concerni
284.
by xpe 10mo ago
I get that. I probably could have been much more succinct by saying this: We can consciously act in ways that reduce the frustration level even if the environment itself doesn't change. It usually takes time and patience, but not alway
285.
by xpe 10mo ago
When the world is complicated, entangled, and rapidly changing, would you expect there to be one centralized official guide?* At the risk of sounding glib or paternalistic -- but I'm going to say it anyway, because once you "see
286.
by xpe 10mo ago
> I'm really not sure what you want me to take from this article? I linked to the Wikipedia page as a way of pointing to the book Superforecasters by Tetlock and Gardner. If forecasting interests you, I recommend using it as a jumpi
287.
by xpe 10mo ago
> I know that "X is destroying democracy, vote for Y" has been a prevalent narrative lately, but is there any evidence that it's true? I get that it's death by a thousand cuts, or "one step at a time" as the
288.
by xpe 10mo ago
Here is one sentence from the referenced prediction: > I don't think there will be any more AI winters. This isn't enough to qualify as a testable prediction, in the eyes of people that care about such things, because there is
289.
by xpe 10mo ago
Many people are impressed by this, and I can see why. Still, this much isn't surprising: the Karpathy + LLM combo can deliver quickly. But there are downsides of blazing speed. If you dig in, there are substantial flaws in the project&
290.
by xpe 10mo ago
I appreciate your intent, but this tool needs a lot of work -- maybe an entire redesign -- before it would be suitable for the purpose you seek. See discussion at [1]. Besides, in my experience, only a tiny fraction of HN comments can be in
291.
by xpe 10mo ago
Good points. To summarize: for a given comment, one presumably must downselect to the ones that can reasonably be interpreted as forecasts. I see some indicators that the creator of the project (despite his amazing reputation) skated over
292.
by xpe 10mo ago
I hope this is a joke. Forecasting and the meta-analysis of forecasters is fairly well studied. [1] is a good place to start. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecaster
293.
by xpe 10mo ago
Until someone publishes a systematic quality assessment, we're grasping at anecdotes. It is unfortunate that the questions of "how well did the LLM do?" and "how does 'grading' work in this app?" seem to h
294.
by xpe 10mo ago
> This is the best thing I've seen all month. I'm actually blown away at just how accurate it is in making up the potential front page posts. Hold on. The future hasn't happened yet. I think what you mean is that you are b
295.
by xpe 10mo ago
> One thing this really highlights to me is how often the "boring" takes end up being the most accurate. Would the commenter above mind sharing the method behind of their generalization? Many people would spot check maybe five
296.
by xpe 10mo ago
r/FreightBrokers reveals a lot of concerns, including his corporate interests and political views tainting his analysis. See: https://www.reddit.com/r/FreightBrokers/comments/1jt5oxm/wha...
297.
by xpe 10mo ago
>> This piece conflates two different things called "alignment": >> (1) inferring human intent from ambiguous instructions, and >> (2) having goals compatible with human welfare. > If by co
298.
by xpe 10mo ago
I don't recommend this article for at least three reasons. First, it muddles key concepts. Second, there are better things to read on this topic. You could do worse that starting with "Conflating value alignment and intent alignme
299.
by xpe 10mo ago
Has anyone looked at the author’s body of work to get a sense of how they think? What is their analytical toolkit? Professional and personal biases?
300.
by xpe 10mo ago
I downvoted because I'm interested in charitable, non-disparaging conversation. I post this so the above commenter doesn't confuse a downvote (1 bit of information) as validation of their claim. I'm personally uninterested in

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