unknown_apostle

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211.
by unknown_apostle 10y ago
After France and the Netherlands rejected the original proposed European Constitution (basically confirming the EU as a socialist superstate), they came up with the Lisbon treaty. When Ireland rejected the Lisbon treaty, they were made to v
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
Another way to say the same: there is no slack. Errors can be sudden and complete. Compare with "old fashioned" contract law or e.g. national currencies or gold. The errors there (theft, counterfeit and fraud) tend to impact only
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
and for the record, it doesn't have to be the next cyclical recession. Anything that makes the Japanese government abandon its last shreds of fiscal credibility may seal the deal for yen holders. How about a military build-up to confro
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
1/ I'm clearly not using duration as in bonds or portfolios. 2/ I wouldn't trust an economist's analysis of network protocols. I also don’t trust an economist when he’s talking macro. 3/ When somebody asks me,
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
It will be worth a lot less once the majority of current yen holders become convinced that the Japanese government can no longer pay for its expenses by external borrowing or by taxing those assets.
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
You personally could only write yourself an IOU not for US dollars, but for Kaonashi dollars. That's meaningless because nobody will trade you anything in exchange for those Kaonashi dollars. At least I wouldn't :-)
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
The prediction is not "crisis". It's hyperinflation and runaway depreciation of the yen. In terms of duration: I would say they are one regular recession away from this. For the last 5 years I've been saying "next 2
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
Totally correct. The intention is to serve the general interest (through Keynesian reasoning), but its immediate effect is to quite literally implement "socialism for the rich". You may call it capitalism, but it sure has nothing
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by unknown_apostle 10y ago
Yep. The yen will pretty much collapse. That will coincide with the sudden return of a highly non-linear phenomenon known as general price inflation. It's not like it hasn't happened before anywhere in the world. The exceptional t
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
Hi julian. We're looking at the exact same page and we're seeing different things. That happens sometimes. I see NW EU doing way too much. I see countries on the way to Europe (Greece, Macedonia, Serbia) doing even more. Btw as fa
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
"Incredibly" misinformed? Not really. How many in Saudi Arabia? Gulf states? Iran? The *stans? North Africa? Georgia? In China or Japan or Russia or Kenya or New Zealand for that matter? How many would be in NW Europe without the
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
Pretty lame. If you live close to the border, Flemings and Dutch are intermarried, they speak the same dialect and all. Refugees were close to home and actually went home after the Germans left. Refugees of Syria (and Iraq and Afghanistan a
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
The biggest danger with blockchain is that if it ever fails, it would fail for technological reasons and its failure would be instant and complete. Like encryption being broken. Instead of government money, where the failure is telegraphed
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
The idea is that cheap oil would be caused by a worsening economy with less demand for it.
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
Be careful with "raw" PE ratio. It peaks when earnings have already collapsed due to the denominator effect. Median of S&P500 price/sales (not quite the same as median of price/earnings of course): http://
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
Absolutely. While most people are looking at an expensive stock market (median price to earnings for S&P500 is higher than in 2000), the real action next time may happen in the broad bond markets. Just verbal speculation of course, but
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by unknown_apostle 11y ago
I don't understand this. So just one question: if it's that simple, why hasn't the market done it yet?
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by unknown_apostle 12y ago
He's so funny and smart, and yet guys like him are one of the bigger obstacles on this planet to accumulating enough capital to finance space exploration. Makes you think...
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by unknown_apostle 12y ago
Not sure if the world has a glut of real savings. It does have a glut of liquidity and a huge steaming pile of IOUs that virtually ensures there will be no end to printing of new money for years to come. So markets are thinking "centra