tylervigen

6 ms·

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by tylervigen 10mo ago
Glad to hear it! The use in stats courses is the main reason I keep it alive.
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by tylervigen 10mo ago
Two years ago I re-vamped my "Spurious Correlations" side project, which is mostly just a bunch of charts. However, I couldn't find a charting software I liked that would display clean, simple visuals with the constraints I w
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by tylervigen 10mo ago
> Google Maps Is Not a Directory. It’s a Market Maker. I understand the author's meaning, but this isn't what the term "market maker" means. To "make a market" is to stand ready to buy and sell, usually a se
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
This is awesome. What a way to do a relaunch. I was a Pebble user in 2013 on first release and saddened when it all broke down. I was so turned off from that experience that I swore off smart watches (I wear a Casio now). This could get me
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
The researchers found a common ancestor of many different species that all conduct non-functional kissing. The surprising thing about the research is that it specifically implies kissing is not cultural!
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
I think it is @ given the context of the next paragraph, where they complain that @ doesn't work well in the grid.
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
The MVTA in Minnesota operates with 90% subsidies, so only 10% of revenue is from fares. It feels like there could be some societal benefit to similarly reducing the number of busses and just making them free. (Today most busses are only at
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
Your experience is at odds with the statistical results of the linked studies covering nearly 100,000 participants.
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
Indeed, and I think this is a diredt result of OP's pipeline. Part of the workflow involves asking an LLM to prioritize articles that readers in 2025 will find interesting in hindsight.
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
It only requires that one parent has enough free hours to assign coursework. They don't have to exit the workforce, and don't necessarily need to directly supervise learning (but of course some of this is necessary for K-5). I thi
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
I think Nano banana pro’s answer to the giraffe edit is far superior to the Seedream response, but you passed Seedream and failed NB pro. Maybe that one is just not a good test?
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
Microsoft Teams does this: https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/discussions/microsofttea...
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
Yes, that complexity is what my acknowledgment was meant to refer to.
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
I disagree with your logic. Increased mean error 72 hours out (vs 24 hours out) is not an indication that GFS is getting worse over time. At that scale it’s obviously getting better over time; 24 hours out is further in the future than 72 h
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
That is not entirely true. At least some of these tests (like HLE and ARC) take steps to keep the evaluation set private so that LLMs can’t just memorize the answers. You could question how well this works, but it’s not like the answers ar
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
This comment was moved from another thread. The original thread included a benchmark chart with ARC performance: https://blog.google/products/gemini/gemini-3/#gemini-3
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
I agree that for any given test, you could build a specific pipeline to optimize for that test. I supposed that's why it is helpful to have many tests. However, many people have worked hard to optimize tools specifically for ARC over
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
I am personally impressed by the continued improvement in ARC-AGI-2, where Gemini 3 got 31.1% (vs ChatGPT 5.1's 17.6%). To me this is the kind of problem that does not lend itself well to LLMs - many of the puzzles test the kind of th
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
It's the subtitle of the article they linked to. But to expand: the US flagship forecast model just had its worst year predicting hurricanes since 2005. The trend of errors over the last few years hasn't been great.
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
> I don't feel as if I get any more accurate data now than I did back when my parents turned to the daily weather channel for the forecast. The accuracy improvement is provable. A four-day forecast today is as accurate as a one-day
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
For lay-users they could have explained that better. I think they may not have completely uninformed users in mind for this page though. Developing an ensemble of possible scenarios has been the central insight of weather forecasting since
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
I’m not sure your point is warranted given there is a year between today and November 2026. Surely we can be more precise than a year?
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
> Inspired by the concept of “a piece of cloth” I thought this was an April fools joke.
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by tylervigen 11mo ago
And for anyone who wants to be nerd sniped by this one comment chain, the Acquired podcast recently did an episode on Epic and it is great. Title: "Epic Systems (MyChart)."
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by tylervigen 1y ago
It's not separate. That would be included in manufacturing, transportation, and electricity.
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by tylervigen 1y ago
I think the problem with this argument is that it’s like saying “don’t worry about nuclear weapons, worry about the people who will use nuclear weapons.” Sure it’s true, in the absolute sense, but it’s more helpful to specify AI than it is
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by tylervigen 1y ago
One thing we should be careful about regarding calculations related to the larger set of "all data centers" vs only "GenAI" is that the data centers include all the predictive algorithms for social media and advertising.
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by tylervigen 1y ago
I am not the author, but can speak as someone who has kept a "seemingly simple" semi-popular web service online for many years with no/low maintenance: it often comes down to the fact that issues tend to pop up just when you
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by tylervigen 1y ago
Probably farther than that, right? Plenty of natural disasters, including floods and wildfires, can affect an area larger than 1 km.
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by tylervigen 1y ago
This site is a front for Miome. The home page cites IBSprobiotics, which cites Bailey Hanna MS, who is employed by Miome according to LinkedIn. Thus, it is no coincidence that if you follow the link to the top probiotic and then look at wh

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