tristanj

15 ms·

241.
by tristanj 4mo ago
> "conclude that they were not developing nukes." You're misreading your own sources. The 2007 NIE and Gabbard's 2025 testimony both describe a nuclear weapons program that Iran "suspended in 2003". They c
242.
by tristanj 4mo ago
You're trying hard to discredit this, but that fails here. The interview in question was conduced by ISCA News, an Iranian state-run media agency.
243.
by tristanj 4mo ago
According to Ali Motahari, a former member of the parliament of Iran. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Motahari Former Iranian Majles member Ali Motahari said in an April 24, 2022 interview on ISCA News (Iran) that w
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by tristanj 4mo ago
The core reason those sunset dates exist is because Iranian officials stated that a sunset on enrichment limits was a non-negotiable. They would not sign a deal without them. Claiming "agreements are renegotiated and extended" is
245.
by tristanj 4mo ago
JCPOA only had temporary enrichment limits, which would end in 2030, after which Iran could enrich freely. It did not permanently stop enrichment. If JCPOA was followed by both Iran and the US to the letter, we would face a similar crisis t
246.
by tristanj 4mo ago
The crisis exists because Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons. That's the root issue. JCPOA was never a permanent solution. Under JCPOA, Iran agreed to temporarily cap enrichment for 15 years until 2030. After which, Iran could enrich fre
247.
by tristanj 4mo ago
It happens when you ask it about esoteric information or under-documented behavior that conflicts with its training data. Here's an example. Tested today on Opus 4.8, and Opus accuses the user of being wrong, even when this is document
248.
by tristanj 4mo ago
The newer Opus models push back against the user much more noticeably than previous iterations. GPT-3.5/4 had the opposite problem (excessive sycophancy), so Anthropic presumably swung the pendulum too hard the other direction. My conc
249.
by tristanj 4mo ago
Radiators in space are a solved problem. The ISS has 70 kW of cooling via multiple radiators, using a dual loop water/ammonia system. The water loop cools the station and high-priority electronics, then the ammonia loop cools the water
250.
by tristanj 4mo ago
SemiAnalysis' report on orbital data centers estimated 4x terrestrial costs in 2026, then parity around ~2040. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/to-boldly-go-the-case-...
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by tristanj 4mo ago
And also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAcR7kqOb3o
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by tristanj 4mo ago
Space data centers are physically possible but don't make financial sense. The total cost of an orbital datacenter over five years is at least 2–3x that of a terrestrial one. But those economics don't matter to SpaceX, because the
253.
by tristanj 4mo ago
Practically everyone defending JCPOA does not understand what the US/Iran actually agreed to, and those who do understand realize the deal was a ticking time bomb towards a nuclear Iran.
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by tristanj 4mo ago
Selling Tesla to buy SpaceX would incur a taxable event, and holders would need to pay capital gains, decreasing the size of their investment. If SpaceX acquires Tesla, there's no taxable event. Also, part of this is their own self-del
255.
by tristanj 4mo ago
On ICBMs, I acknowledge that error. Iran's nuclear-capable missiles only fly 4,000km, which is IRBM-class. ICBMs require 5,500+km, and Iran isn't there yet. You build my argument for me: Iran banks the relief, refuses to renegotia
256.
by tristanj 4mo ago
You're conflating the old 'Iran is N months from a bomb' predictions (which you have good reason to be skeptical of) with documented IAEA stockpiles. Iran had 440.9 kg of 60% highly-enriched U on June 13, 2025 per the final I
257.
by tristanj 4mo ago
My mistake, Iran presently only has IRBMs, not ICBMs. Iran's nuclear-capable Khorramshahr-4 missile has a range of up to 4,000 km [0], and the requirement for an ICBM is above 5,500 km. So you are technically correct. [0] https:/
258.
by tristanj 4mo ago
So you "don't care about missiles." Convenient, because that's the entire argument you've been avoiding this whole time. JCPOA paused enrichment for 15 years and did nothing about the missiles and drones, the exact
259.
by tristanj 4mo ago
The Tesla/SpaceX merger rumors feel like classic cope created by Tesla bagholders who feel they are missing out on the SpaceX IPO. Let’s be real: Elon has mentally checked out of Tesla. His heart and focus is at SpaceX, and long time T
260.
by tristanj 5mo ago
That $400M had been frozen and disputed since 1981. It's zero coincidence Obama settled it the same day American prisoners were released and the deal took effect. But the rest of your argument doesn't hold up. The $100-150 billion
261.
by tristanj 5mo ago
Did you conveniently forget what happened? To get Iran to agree to JCOPA, Obama gave Iran tens of billions to not develop nukes for 15 years. In 2016, Iran was paid $1.7 billion in cash as a result of the nuclear deal, and regained control
262.
by tristanj 5mo ago
Nope, you do not comprehend the strategy at all. I don't understand how you could write all that, without comprehending the situation. The strategy, which Trump chose not to pursue, is the total destruction of Iran's energy and fu
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by tristanj 5mo ago
Lots of issues > If that strategy was the only strategy, then it would have already been done No, it's not done because the US is averse to combat losses. The US will win a ground war against Iran, there's no question here. B
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by tristanj 5mo ago
The nuclear problem was never fixed; the nuclear material is still in Iran, and during the months since June 2025 Iran has had adequate time to dig out the buried fuel and move it to a more secure location. The reason JCPOA got torched was
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by tristanj 5mo ago
Rubio's response to JCPOA in 2015 is prescient https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-5dQIVh_QT4 . Everything foretold in his speech has happened. Continued sanctions were a viable answer, the reason they failed is because B
266.
by tristanj 5mo ago
You misunderstand. You underestimate the depth of the campaign. The strategy calls for a total dismantling of Iran's infrastructure, including oil generation, fuel processing, electrical generation, and industrial capacity. Similar how
267.
by tristanj 5mo ago
That's the Capitalist peace theory, proposed in 1795 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalist_peace_theory It has some truth to it, but it doesn't survive looking at European history. In 1913 Germany and Brit
268.
by tristanj 5mo ago
You addressed one item from a list of ten examples. Why ignore the rest of the list? Dubai airport was struck four or five times. Qatar's LNG facilities. Kuwait's desalination plants. Bahrain's bridges. Saudi pumping stations
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by tristanj 5mo ago
Initially yes, but then Iran began targeting everything of value nearby. Bridges in Bahrain, Dubai airport (struck 4-5 times), apartment buildings in Dubai, desalination plants in Kuwait, schools in Azerbaijan, LNG facilities in Qatar, pump
270.
by tristanj 5mo ago
Your argument is poorly thought out. All civilian infrastructure is dual-use. Militaries will use civilian roads, highways, bridges, and airports when necessary. Militaries use civilian water facilities, buy fuel at civilian petrol stations

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