tinymollusk

11 ms·

61.
by tinymollusk 9y ago
I'm reading Annie Duke's brand new (and excellent!) book called "Thinking in Bets". She suggests that placing monetary bets is a good way to force yourself (and possibly others) to reason about how they know what they k
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
You wouldn't. A lot of people would.
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
What if the size of the sphere is the determining characteristic about the level of discourse? I just read Geoffrey West's book, "Scale", and it is interesting to think of a sub-linear relationship, with "quality of dis
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
I tend towards fairly dense nonfiction like Scale (finished yesterday). That's nearly 20 hours at 1x playback, which the effective price was $15 w/ my membership. I find a huge amount of value for the effective $1-2 per hour I en
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
A standard explore/exploit model can work here. Perhaps it's semantics, but I consider that strategy an optimizer, although it's non a linear or deterministic one. Optimize the things I know are working; add semi-random dec
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
The basis of that statement, in my opinion, is human bias. Experts protect their reputation to the external and internal (psychological) world by saying that nobody could have predict the specifics that led to that event. Nicholas Nassim T
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
I use scrapy, although it doesn't do great w/ JS heavy sites unless you can figure out the ajax request and just simulate those. Tutorials are pretty easy to find, as it's the top python based scraping tool.
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Broadcom raises buyout price for Qualcomm to $121B(sandiegouniontribune.com)
2 points by tinymollusk 9y ago|0 comments
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
In my opinion, the set of players should be inclusive of all football players. By limiting it to the most successful outliers in a power law distribution, we limit ourselves to the players with the best possible outcome. Players don'
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
Can't it simply be explained by the mathematics of decision making under uncertainty in open and complex systems? This is an interesting discussion; is it shapeable market forces (US tax and legal system) that creates these incentives,
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
I'm a little confused, but I think you restated my point. The portfolio approach appears to be the optimal strategy in an open game like startup creation, where the upside is potentially infinite and the uncertainty is really high. I
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
A good and true point. How invalid do you think this counterargument is? If anyone could identify early-stage companies with a 75-100% chance of being profitable, wouldn't we see an investor niche that supports this? (I can think of o
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
Sure, but you were already outside the group because of your misuse of spoons. I have difficulty picking up the nuance of these small askance glances, so without asking, it's unlikely I'll ever pick up the shibboleth. Personally,
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
This is because the portfolio strategy (1 hypergrowth + 20 failures) is the best strategy from the VC perspective. It's nearly impossible to know which startups will succeed (high uncertainty decision making), and very difficult to kn
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
I'd go one step further, and blame our growth obsessed startup culture. So many incentives to get people to share so a product can go "viral". Strava has a number of anti-patterns that make it difficult to do what you want
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
We live in such interesting times! Any criteria we can come up with for computers would then need to be applied to people. But how could we do that, when humans answer questions so differently? Do we ask one human? A sample of humans?
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
or 3) it's a single individual sharing their opinion or 4) they believe it will help their overall reuputation after a crash, so customers who bought and got crushed will think "man if only I had listened to them" or 5) it&#x
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
The cause and effect of tax breaks causing company migration isn't clearly established. Further, you'd need to consider what the city's tax revenues would have looked like without those companies HQ being located there. Fin
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
This sounds approximately correct, and is a good perspective for an entrepreneurial forum. This is what investors call a moat. It's such an effective one that we have legislation designed to deal with it. This is not a comment on e
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
It seems possible that the external is the trigger to allow oneself to feel and acceptance and support internally. For me, that was the difference maker in talk-therapy; I learned how to treat myself better, tutored by an external resource
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
They could pay attention to the person doing the selling, whose customer is the buyer. Swap-meets are generally one-way markets; much less swapping and more of a marketplace to sell (cheap) goods.
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
Not to demean you, personally, but you sound like every other bright eyed ad-team member I've ever spoken with. Have you worked at other "top-tier" advertising platforms like AdWords, or Facebook, or Yelp? Do you think anyon
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
More accurate to say breadth tends to scale bigger, and depth allows for focus and better product/market fit in a smaller market.
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
Depth (well-known individual who built their reputation over time) versus Breadth (crowd). We seem to increasingly incentivize breadth of appeal over depth. TV Shows that appeal to the lowest common denominator, etc.
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
If you apply this standard (requiring a control) to all history, one is forced to conclude that all conclusions about the cause of all historical events is bunk. I think I actually agree with that.
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
They had years of organization using IT that built up a lot of inertia. As another commenter said, 10 days is probably well below the threshold of their typical shipment turnover. My guess is they'd quickly suffer potentially company-
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
My thought is that unless proved otherwise, the default assumption should not be "signal", it should be "noise". There is little evidence that modern finance is a free market, or that (macro)-economic theory is all that
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
What's the evidence that learning/adaptation happens in a positive direction in markets? Without the directionality indicator, it sounds more like "this system has changed" rather than "this system has improved&quo
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
To me, the goal of running my own business is to build something that powers my life. The marg on a beach thing is nice for a short period, but I want to own something that I can put meaningful work into. Balance is still important, but wo
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by tinymollusk 9y ago
You are very correct for anyone who would consider themselves a programmer. I was thinking in a bigger scope; with so many non-programmers working technical roles (and especially with data/databases), I think this is a marvellous way

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