svara

32 ms·

451.
by svara 5y ago
Not sure what you're trying to say. Of course there is a limited pool of people to infect. And various effects can cause infections to spread in multiple waves even far from herd immunity. And yet, you can go from a few rare cases in y
452.
by svara 5y ago
That's not right, you can build a maximally simplistic SIR model with a finite infectious period. That will initially display approximately exponential growth, and slow down as acquired immunity increases.
453.
by svara 5y ago
> Deaths didn't budge. At all. The plot doesn't show that. You're looking at the moving average which doesn't move much, but the underlying data (daily, presumably) shows a drastic increase in the last one or two data
454.
by svara 5y ago
> Both approaches are about properties of the organism as it currently exists. Not really, no. The monophyletic approach does that only indirectly. Think of marsupial/mammal convergence. Is it really wrong to think of marsupial mice
455.
by svara 5y ago
Previous discussion from half a year ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27094382
456.
by svara 5y ago
Think of evolution as an optimization algorithm that finds organisms for ecological niches. The monophyletic grouping approach tells you something about the path through solution space taken by the algorithm. The paraphyletic approach inste
457.
Dissecting the early Covid-19 cases in Wuhan(science.org)
21 points by svara 5y ago|1 comments
458.
by svara 5y ago
> Germany went on a spree, dismantling their nuclear plants after being scared by Fukushima. Fossil fuel plants tool their place. Not true. Renewables took their place. Nuclear wasn't a huge part of the mix before Fukushima either.
459.
by svara 5y ago
Curious to hear what the optimistic story to justify the current incredible valuation is. I mean, they seem to be doing very well now, but their market cap is now roughly equal to all other car makers combined. [0] That's just confus
460.
by svara 5y ago
I don't have any particular insight on bullying in Japan specifically, but having lived there for a big chunk of my childhood I can say for sure that you have to be very, very skeptical of the "Look how weird Japan is" trope
461.
by svara 5y ago
I agree it would have been better to phase out coal before nuclear, but it's not correct to say that there was a switch from nuclear to coal. The switch was from nuclear to renewables. Coal was stable for a long time, and is now decrea
462.
by svara 5y ago
That doesn't work, since there's no way to distinguish a compressed file from an uncompressed file that just happens to have the same contents. The hash doesn't help with that since that has collisions, it's the same pig
463.
by svara 5y ago
It is certain. Even if the vaccines always led to sterilizing immunity (they don't) and immunity lasted forever (it doesn't), we're not reaching sufficient fractions of vaccinated people literally anywhere in the world for
464.
by svara 5y ago
I think GP made a good argument, if you state it in somewhat more friendly words. The world is different now from 2019; history has forced on us the unfortunate choice between the vaccine and the novel Coronavirus. The idea that the vaccine
465.
by svara 5y ago
Interestingly, you can get multiple-wave dynamics even when very far from population-level herd immunity, and even without taking into account changes in behavior (for example, [1]). That's because of stochasticity in the process due t
466.
by svara 5y ago
This (liability) is beginning to change with L3 systems. Mercedes will take over liability while drive pilot is engaged in highway stop and go traffic.
467.
by svara 5y ago
I think it's more nuanced - I agree there's no clear road to AGI like some would like you to believe, on the other hand there are new and useful techniques that are real. Those PhDs may not have the stellar careers the they might
468.
by svara 5y ago
I think I see what you're trying to say even if you're doing so very obliquely - the point is that this never was and never will be an issue that it makes sense to think of in absolutes. Speech has never been free in this absolute
469.
by svara 5y ago
Your argument lacks any nuance, to the degree that it makes it flat out wrong. No one is suggesting regulating truth generally, but rather specific cases that are deemed dangerous [0]. Now, you could make a slippery slope argument starting
470.
by svara 5y ago
Not sure if you're referring to a different simulator since model.energy doesn't seem to allow modeling nuclear? But, qualitatively, it sounds like the step-like behavior you describe simply reflects whether LCOE(nuclear) > LCO
471.
by svara 5y ago
If you have a high-capacity, constantly running power source, you can subtract that power from the demand curve, up to the minimum power demand. That means the winter renewable production troughs on dark, windless days become more shallow.
472.
by svara 5y ago
> No, it was not the correct call, because it means that possibility was not investigated when it should have been. Wuhan is in China, and the government there is relatively unfazed by social media excitement in other countries. It would
473.
by svara 5y ago
Yeah, that's why I wrote "no matter what anyone tells you". I am a biologist, and I can say for sure that that's a complete red herring. Of course it could have been added in the lab, but that's literally true f
474.
by svara 5y ago
This story is a real clusterfuck and really hammers home the point that humans are bad at dealing with probabilities and uncertainty. You mix some nationalism in and it becomes completely impossible to have a reasonable discussion. This art
475.
by svara 5y ago
Knots and (nautical) miles aren't imperial. They're useful for navigation because a nautical mile is exactly the length of a meridian arcminute, and a knot is one nautical mile per hour. Makes these units easy to use on nautical c
476.
by svara 5y ago
I guess people who make precisely classifying millions of objects their job need to be a little on the pedantic side to do that well. ;) But, in all seriousness, I didn't think the article was like that at all. The title is meant to gr
477.
by svara 5y ago
That's a good point about window scaling solving the problem in theory. Still, empirically, latency has a huge impact on throughput. Part of the reason might be that many transfers are actually too small to take full advantage of windo
478.
by svara 5y ago
How large to you want the TCP buffer to get? Hundred-of-mbit/s to GBit/s bandwidths are normal even for consumers now, and so are delays in the hundreds of milliseconds.
479.
by svara 5y ago
I don't quite understand the point that latency doesn't matter much outside of niche applications. If you're using TCP, bandwidth depends on latency, and surely no one thinks bandwidth isn't important? This totally does
480.
by svara 5y ago
That's a rather naive take that you're attacking all of "biology" with. The article doesn't even state what you criticize it for - it doesn't say that there is no such thing as a tree, it says there is no such

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