smeej

8 ms·

61.
by smeej 9mo ago
Am I missing something? My only options on that site appear to be to watch a video or log in. I can't even read about what the thing does, or why I should care about it. Has the web gotten that lazy?
62.
by smeej 9mo ago
This was before Signal switched to a username system.
63.
by smeej 9mo ago
I don't get it. I keep getting $0. Maybe I'm not using high enough numbers? I used the example of $100k each, or then $100k and $80k, which is on the high side of the median where I live and the single vs. married end up the same.
64.
by smeej 9mo ago
When I first saw this, my thought was, "Wow, I'm surprised Anthropic hasn't pushed back on their calling it that. They must not know about it yet." Glad to know my own internal prediction engine still works.
65.
by smeej 9mo ago
Looking at the world, it really makes me wonder if "human" is what we want to model these machines on. It's not obvious to me what else we should choose, but working together peaceably and effectively doesn't seem to be
66.
by smeej 9mo ago
As a person who's worked in support roles in tech companies and has a working familiarity with Python but is not a software developer or engineer at all, it's been fascinating to watch the changes. In the last couple weeks, both
67.
by smeej 9mo ago
I found it really ironic that the author started with something attention-grabbing about a topic completely unrelated to his point, but then made a series of such mundane statements to begin his own writing that I didn't care enough
68.
by smeej 9mo ago
For a few shares, sure, but not if you come in at 10% of the whole market in volume. That would eat a huge chunk of the open order book, causing a massive trading wick. You can't buy very many shares at that 9x value.
69.
by smeej 9mo ago
It's only a huge payout if you have a huge amount of money. If you have $1k to put in, you get $2k out. Who's risking getting caught and potentially facing the death penalty for $1k in profit? If someone already has significant mo
70.
by smeej 9mo ago
But the hitman still does not get the entire value of the contract. The hitman gets the value of the number of shares he can afford to buy, but that's not the whole contract by any means. I think I understand what you're saying
71.
by smeej 9mo ago
I think the problem is that I don't think it would end up primarily being about gambling. I already live in a world where people make odds about whether I'm going to die. They're called "actuaries," and they work
72.
by smeej 9mo ago
Ironically, I actually have a philosophy degree. If I'm still missing the point, I really don't think it's because I haven't learned how to think. All I can really do in this case is ask for explanation. If you're
73.
by smeej 9mo ago
> The size of the bounty isn't defined by the price of the contract, but the total upside available in the order book. But one person doesn't get the whole thing. ALL the people holding that side of the contract split the payou
74.
by smeej 9mo ago
But it's not a bounty. It's a market, right? So the payout is split among everyone on your side? And the if you try to dump a ton (measured relative to the size of the market) into the market, the price tanks because there are
75.
by smeej 9mo ago
Yes, but it spikes BEFORE the attack begins, which means we learnt someone thought there was a string reason to believe things were about to change earlier than we otherwise would have. That's the whole point, isn't it? And if y
76.
by smeej 9mo ago
It's not a bounty, though, right? It operates like other trading markets? So unless they have big money to wager, they don't have big money to gain. If it's hovering at, say, 10% odds, it's not like they can automaticall
77.
by smeej 9mo ago
> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspic
78.
by smeej 9mo ago
"Thinking" is directed and intentional. That may very well not be something people can do. I don't know. That's not what I'm talking about. And it very well might be practically impossible to find enough people whos
79.
by smeej 9mo ago
It's impossible to me that you're dumb enough to be saying these things in good faith, so maybe I'm guilty of the same assumption, that anyone who can form sentences must have a brain at least as much like mine that they can
80.
by smeej 9mo ago
No, you don't understand. On about a weekly basis, my need to go to the bathroom does not make itself pressing enough to get me there without leakage. It is not more than 15 steps from my desk chair to the toilet. Sometimes I roll th
81.
by smeej 9mo ago
No no. Not "somewhere." A thousand places. At once. Not in sequence. Not from one to another. At the exact same time. And then they each fractal off in their own directions. Take away the external reminders and my reality frag
82.
by smeej 9mo ago
This doesn't answer the question on any level. There is ALWAYS a choice. Where does the choice go when you remove it? What exists in its stead? How is there ever not a choice?
83.
by smeej 9mo ago
You say "when you're allowed choice" like there are some times when you aren't allowed choice, and I think this is where you lose me. Everything is a choice. Always. It's not a matter of "allowed/not all
84.
by smeej 9mo ago
10%: There's were I a Proving It's 100%: There's no way you could ever understand me if I were trying to say something complicated. I'm much too intelligent. I have way more mental firepower than you do. I'm a very
85.
by smeej 9mo ago
> Just 100% effort of resting and recovering, without any distractions. You say that like the distractions are exclusively outside. I'm not the person you're replying to, but if I close all my blackout curtains, turn off all th
86.
by smeej 9mo ago
The assumption that there is one set of rules for "correct behavior, rules, habits" that somehow applies equally to all brains is so spectacularly ignorant it's staggering. I can obtain the same results as almost anybody at t
87.
by smeej 9mo ago
So does the fall that tends to follow pride.
88.
by smeej 9mo ago
Your advice is the equivalent of telling someone who has dyslexia, "Reading isn't hard. You just look at the letters, and then you say the words out loud. Or if that doesn't work, you have to come up with some other way to ma
89.
by smeej 9mo ago
What do you think discipline is if not willpower? This might explain why we're talking past each other. I can do the exact same thing a hundred days in a row as long as the circumstances happen to be the same. And I can try to make t
90.
by smeej 9mo ago
You're hitting on exactly what I meant, though. You're generalizing from "it works for me" in a way that implies it's equally possible for everyone, that everyone's brain has the ability to look at something

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