smcin

10 ms·

151.
by smcin 7mo ago
This reminds me of having the reverse experience with the 2017 New Yorker viral "Cat Person" story [0] which a (usually trustworthy) friend forwarded and enthusiastically told me to read: waste of time shaggy-dog story, intentiona
152.
by smcin 7mo ago
Specifically what is the user's misunderstanding? Be constructive.
153.
by smcin 7mo ago
won't even load for me now. (Edit: it loads now)
154.
by smcin 7mo ago
Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common). https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ip
155.
by smcin 7mo ago
Thanks for this coinage. FYI your comment got killed.
156.
by smcin 7mo ago
Not all new houses sell. Some become shadow inventory, some take 5+ years to sell. If you drive around new developments you can measure the fraction. IIRC, Mountain House (near Tracy, CA) in the 2008-2010 crash was an example of a large new
157.
by smcin 7mo ago
Their gross margin is a lagging metric on houses they built 2/3 quarters ago, and applied for development permits ~4 quarters ago. US homebuilder gross margins have been declining since 2023.
158.
by smcin 7mo ago
To correct the mangling of history, there was no "list of Jews kept by the Netherlands [pre-occupation]". There were only pre-existing Dutch population registries of all people, where the personal details collected by the Dutch
159.
by smcin 7mo ago
That Zuckerberg quote was published in 2013 and supposedly was made a year or more before. Was it about when Dick Costolo was CEO (2010-2012)?
160.
by smcin 7mo ago
Did you not test it at all before deploying?
161.
A Darkly Modern Guide to Betting on War(bloomberg.com)
5 points by smcin 7mo ago|1 comments
162.
by smcin 7mo ago
"A Darkly Modern Guide to Betting on War: The Iran conflict, and the way Kalshi and Polymarket handled wagers, shows weaknesses in prediction markets." https://archive.ph/edvac
163.
by smcin 8mo ago
What's your specific criticism?
164.
by smcin 8mo ago
How to steer on mobile?
165.
by smcin 8mo ago
Independent of that. I'm saying there was some wisdom to continuing to fund it in Japan post-2010 as a hedge in case REEs were unavailable. (Separate to whether the idea originally made sense back in the 2000s.)
166.
by smcin 8mo ago
I'm pointing out that the timeline of continuing funding it, to the point of a major model design and launch, and nationwide network of hydrogen stations, might well be linked to China's emergent REE dominance and that Japan doesn
167.
by smcin 8mo ago
Full tank capacity of a Mirai is ~5 kg / (120 liters in volume).
168.
by smcin 8mo ago
Remember that China briefly embargoed Japan for rare earth metals in 2010, and Toyota launched the Mirai in 2014. My theory was that it was developed as a national fallback for Japan in case that embargo continued or got worse. Think 1930s
169.
by smcin 8mo ago
Yeah, that one too.
170.
by smcin 8mo ago
If you can see which account placed key trades, you can determine if it's likely to be signal/countersignal/neither. Certainly the platform itself can.
171.
by smcin 8mo ago
You're overlooking that sudden, unexplained or counterintuitive movements in the actual prediction market itself, well before the event occurs/market resolves can themselves convey information, about what apparent insiders think
172.
by smcin 8mo ago
Could you post on HN on that? Would be worth reading. And are you only talking about cybersecurity disclosure, liability, patent applications... And the scenario when you're both working for the same party, or opposing parties?
173.
by smcin 8mo ago
'canary', 'review canary' or something.
174.
by smcin 8mo ago
Yes, Christian Rudder's old OKTrends blog was excellent and showed real-world data on how people actually behave, and the frequent mismatch with what they claim/ believe/admit to. (Mind you, the OkCupid founders left over a
175.
by smcin 8mo ago
- some resident aliens (if not authorized to work), B-1/B-2 Visitors, WB/WT (Visa Waiver Program), nonresident aliens - their spouses and dependents e.g. F-2 Dependents, J-2 Dependents, H-4 Dependents: of H-1B, H-2A, H-2B, or H-3
176.
by smcin 8mo ago
It was only one example they gave, and they accept multiple different types of ID; a driver's license or national ID card being other likely ones, and DLs do say where you live.
177.
by smcin 8mo ago
What on earth is this, all this already happened two weeks ago. Takaichi already dissolved the House of Representatives on Jan 23, 2026 and held a snap general election on Feb 8, 2026, which her LDP + Japan Innovation Party won with a super
178.
by smcin 9mo ago
Webpage is down for me?
179.
by smcin 9mo ago
It should be possible to find out and compare the cost in different US cities.
180.
by smcin 9mo ago
'The Big Short' (2015)

More ›