slg

37 ms·

691.
by slg 1y ago
Which is part of the reason that the HN guidance is to use the original headline, which OP didn't do here.
692.
by slg 1y ago
Once again, this is not an accurate description of presidential elections or even what I said for that matter. I did not say that everyone knew Trump would win in the manner in which he did. But once we take Trump winning as a prediction,
693.
by slg 1y ago
>The presidential election is 50 independent events This is just fundamentally not true. See my other comment, the results are heavily correlated making prediction of them all easier, especially in 2024 when they all moved in the same d
694.
by slg 1y ago
This question shows a fundamental misunderstanding of predicting presidential elections. There is no value in predicting New York would go blue or Alabama would go red. Most states are easy to predict and the states that are more difficult
695.
by slg 1y ago
You have a 12.5% chance to correctly predict 3 coin flips in a row. You need a lot more than 3 examples before we can actually be confident that a successful prediction is anything more than luck.
696.
by slg 1y ago
There are groups that try to quantify this sort of stuff. According to one measure, the US was already behind most of Europe in 2024[1] and I would expect us to drop much further in the next iteration of this list. [1] - https:/&#x2F
697.
by slg 1y ago
And yet the US trails those European countries in most measures of quality of healthcare including access. It is clear the US pays more for healthcare and receives worse service. That doesn't mean anyone is calling Europe utopian, bu
698.
by slg 1y ago
Fair enough, but I think that makes this a lesson in the importance of context. When someone uses quotes in their own informal original writing, they will often be received as scare quotes[1]. Knowing nothing about that author, I would ass
699.
by slg 1y ago
Why is "guessed" in quotes in the HN headline. That word does not appear in the article. They even say the following: >The Bocconi team is the first to point out the limitations of the model. “We do not claim to predict the o
700.
by slg 1y ago
It is weird to claim it is simply "grass is greener thinking" and then point to opinion polls as if those polls won't suffer the same fate. But either way, that wasn't my point. The "specific problem" I was r
701.
by slg 1y ago
>Modern democracy mostly just doesn't seem to work how it ought. It is funny to say this as if every other modern democracy hasn't solved the specific problem that you have given. The issue isn't democracy, it is the Amer
702.
by slg 1y ago
One of the dystopian traits I was hinting at in my original comment is the acceptance of mass murder as long as it occurs in the boardroom and nets an extra few cents for the shareholders. I won't defend or justify what "Mario&#x
703.
by slg 1y ago
One of the most shocking aspects of this era of history is the number of people who not only end up accidentally resembling or aligning with the bad guys of our satire and dystopian fiction, but how many of them seem to be actively and inte
704.
by slg 1y ago
Thank you, I appreciate you clarifying to me what I meant when I said what I said.
705.
by slg 1y ago
Reread my original comment or even just the that short seven word quote you have right there. Notice that key word "me". I was speaking about myself in the present tense, not "people... all over the planet during all season
706.
by slg 1y ago
I tend to get better range than that, I'd like to claim it is my driving style, but more realistically it is because I live in Southern California so the battery is generally at ideal temperature, I often don't need heat/AC,
707.
by slg 1y ago
You are failing to understand what I'm saying. They don't have to weasel out of legal liability in court. They just bake the legal settlements they know they will have to pay into their marketing budget. Has no one watched Fight
708.
by slg 1y ago
This is misinterpreting what I'm saying. I'm not arguing for the safety of Tesla's system. I'm saying that judging the safety based off of corporate marketing decisions is a mistake and putting a guarantee on a product
709.
by slg 1y ago
> It's not safe to do this unless you have a critical mass of cars on the road capable of doing it. You could always give those cars their own section of the road like HOV lanes. EVs were granted access to HOV lanes in California a
710.
by slg 1y ago
No, they really are no different. A legal guarantee doesn't actually mean the car is safe, it means they will pay for it when the safety features fail. Those fees paid out can just be considered a marketing expense to make the car app
711.
by slg 1y ago
Those goalposts moved pretty fast from "sleep while it drives me to work" which I can do today to the extreme of being able to drive "Anywhere in the world under any conditions". And I see no reason to believe "all
712.
by slg 1y ago
I think this is overstated. My Ford EV gets ~300 miles. If I leave my home with a full charge, I can get ~500 miles with ~30 minutes of charging. If a ~30 minute break in the middle of an ~8 hour drive is a problem for you, you probably a
713.
by slg 1y ago
I can order a Waymo from my phone right now and sleep in the backseat while it drives me across town.
714.
by slg 1y ago
>It sounded like he hadn't anticipated how much of a hassle it is to charge on road trips. A few years ago this was true, but now that Tesla has opened up their network of chargers, your destination probably has to be >100 miles
715.
by slg 1y ago
>Will you believe them in the future? An underdiscussed frustrating aspect of this whole era is that there is never any true retrospection. There is no adjustment in the credibility of the people who predicted exactly how things would p
716.
by slg 1y ago
>There's a poor child that's being withheld access to their medication and to their oncologists, and the adults in the room—adults in uniforms, adults with guns, adults in suits and adults in black robes—all of these adults are
717.
by slg 2y ago
This still seems to be based on assumptions coming from our own history and situation. I don't know why some hypothetical species needs fire for chemistry or even metallurgy for that matter or why an underwater civilization couldn&#x27
718.
by slg 2y ago
That seems like a very landbased mindset. From a high level, what is an ocean but a thick atmosphere? I could even imagine an underwater culture would be quicker to explore because they would surely discover the surface of the ocean quick
719.
by slg 2y ago
>Money is not an end. It’s a (one) tool to get there. To the ends you want. To some sort of change in the world you want to achieve. Maybe for the overwhelming majority of the population, but it simply isn't the mindset of the billi
720.
by slg 2y ago
I don't know how that is supposed to work or counts as an "overplanner". That sounds to me more like someone who has goals but doesn't actually have a plan on how to reach that goal.

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