scellus

7 ms·

31.
by scellus 1y ago
lol
32.
by scellus 1y ago
Here's a rough breakdown from Claude: "[...] psilocybin converts to psilocin in the body at roughly a 1:1 ratio by active effect [...] Psilocybe cubensis (most common): Contains about 0.5-1.0% psilocybin by dry weight. Since psilo
33.
by scellus 1y ago
Yes, price elasticity increases the demand for software work in total, including LLMs and humans. But to me at least, it is not clear that humans will increase their total amount of work as LLMs obviously do. Is it possible that LLM coding
34.
by scellus 1y ago
I agree. AI has made even mundane coding fun again, at least for a while. AI does a lot of the tedious work, but finding ways to make it maximally do it is challenging in a new way. New landscape of possibilities, innovation, tools, process
35.
by scellus 2y ago
Google's is initialized with a gridded dataset, ERA5, from ECMWF. Using ERA5 is the current standard here, and ECMWF themselves build on that mostly now. Meanwhile, Aardvark tries to do the same directly from observations.
36.
by scellus 2y ago
It's lower than many other medium-range AI forecasts, but note that those other models get state-of-the-art with pretty coarse grids, 0.5° or so. The point is that upper atmosphere and broad patterns are smooth, so with ML/AI they
37.
by scellus 2y ago
No, they say end-to-end, meaning they use raw obsevations. Most or all other medium-range models start with ERA5. There's a paper from Norway that tried end-to-end, but their results were not spectacular. That's the aim of many th
38.
by scellus 2y ago
I'm 57, a data scientist and just can't keep my hands off concrete problems, which means I need to write code as well. Although I enjoy good modeling most, right now AI makes even mundane parts of the work fun again.
39.
by scellus 2y ago
But ECMWF itself runs a diffusion model that is practically on par with ENS in accuracy. They also seem to collaborate closely.
40.
by scellus 2y ago
ECMWF runs many such models at their site, a run two or four times per day, and they have verification statistics too, no need to doubt the accuracy. The Google model is probably the best so far but ECMWF's own diffusion model was alre
41.
by scellus 2y ago
It's a medium-range global model, while Google Weather (which I don't have) is mostly about local short-range weather? But Google Weather is already based on an AI prediction on most cities: https://research.google&#x2F
42.
by scellus 2y ago
For someone living in Helsinki and currently working in steel industry, the title of the post was particularly hard to parse.
43.
by scellus 2y ago
Yes, except that I'm not so sure there is a clear distinction between following general instructions and generating new heuristics. It's just a difference in the level of abstraction there, and probably not even that one in any di
44.
by scellus 2y ago
In Finland, i get 5Mbps LTE uplink for EUR 4 per month, for a trailcam, with unlimited use (at least in principle). So $20 per month sounds expensive, but obviously there are places where one has no earthly LTE and then it could be justifie
45.
by scellus 2y ago
Priors on parameters are not an issue. On models of scale, priors are just some computationally convenient shrinkage, and what works is found empirically and canonized into the practice; projecting prior knowledge of the problem at hand by
46.
by scellus 2y ago
Although not probable in this case as far as I know: if vegetable oils seem to cause problems for you, you should be aware of sitosterolemia (phytosterolemia), caused by rare mutations in genes ABCG5 and ABCG8. It needs to be homozygous for
47.
by scellus 2y ago
Semantic leakage could be just weakness of the model, and related to claims that they don't _really_ reason. Maybe more training could help. Or maybe it's a more fundamental weakness of the attention mechanism? (There are alternat
48.
by scellus 2y ago
I generate or modify R and Python, and slightly prefer Claude currently. I haven't tested the o1 models properly though. By looking at evals, o1-mini should be the best coding model available. On the other hand most (but not all) of my
49.
by scellus 2y ago
That's interesting, zaps are a withdrawal syndrome of SSRIs (and duloxetine).
50.
by scellus 2y ago
Same here, occasionally I find both the case and the ear pieces with empty batteries while they haven’t been nowhere near empty when I left them, usually previous day or evening.
51.
by scellus 2y ago
No, Graphcast is a graph transformer trained on ERA5 weather reconstructions of the atmosphere, not a general time series prediction model. It by the way outperforms all traditional global point forecasts (non-ensembles), at least on predic
52.
by scellus 3y ago
GraphCast, Pangu-Weather from Huawei, FourCastNet and EC's own AIFS are available on the ECMWF chart website https://charts.ecmwf.int , click "Machine learning models" on the left tab. (Clicking anything makes the
53.
by scellus 11y ago
Not yet, sorry. :) But see the Github repo and source code therein.
54.
by scellus 11y ago
Price data is sparse, often from a small number of sales, and censored when number of sales is smaller than six. So the local price levels, and especially trends are not at all clear from the raw data. The model has three-level geographical
55.
by scellus 11y ago
Thanks to the Stan team for making the modelling feasible! http://mc-stan.org