sarchertech

7 ms·

61.
by sarchertech 2mo ago
You can’t run expensive, time consuming, and potentially harmful tests on every patient. Someone comes in with a headache, you tell them to go home and take an aspirin. You don’t send them for a a CT scan. If it doesn’t go away and they com
62.
by sarchertech 2mo ago
There’s a fair amount of viruses that have no animal reservoir. Either they evolved from a different human virus, or from an animal virus. Measles for example evolved from a livestock virus called rinderpest and lost the ability to infect c
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
Are you just going to hop around every thread on this article and be snarky?
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
Humans are the only reservoir for polio, so that’s not true. We could theoretically wipe out polio just like smallpox because there are no animal reservoirs.
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
We haven’t even managed to wipe out polio, and that is a cheap, lifelong vaccine.
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
Microservices mostly exist to solve the problem of over hiring that existed during the era of cheap money.
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
You’re the one that said it’s a 100x productivity increase, so I assume you meant compared to a software developer writing without AI. What else are you using as a benchmark? So it can’t 100x writing an OS even though it has tons of OS code
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
Yeah 100x is definitely still controversial. 100x means you should be able to whip up a new OS in a week. Looking at something like Anthropic's attempt to write a C compiler in rust. That definitely wasn’t 100x. It took 2 weeks to buil
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by sarchertech 2mo ago
I haven’t checked in recently but a couple months ago there was an increase on the Apple App Store, but not on Android. And when I did a spot check, most new apps were just wrappers around LLM APIs.
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
The reason we have data is because of all the biases that come with “just looking around”. Confirmation bias and selection bias are very powerful. I strongly dislike Donald Trump, and he has done some terrible things to our country. But my
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
> The Republicans have utterly failed to offer any alternative at all to Obamacare after 16 years That’s because before Obama picked it up, it was the Republican free market compromise plan in the face of a growing for socialized healt
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
I agree we need to do more. I do wonder if just providing a public option to compete against private insurance is the way to go though. >profit caps We have profit caps on health insurance. It has many downsides though. The first is that
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
You can deduct some of your medical expenses. I think it’s over 7.5% of your AGI. But tax deduction or not isn’t what makes individual health insurance so expensive. When you have employer provided health insurance you’re in a completely di
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
I’m not making any argument about what China should do. I’m saying that the argument that China is ruled by an enlightened despot who “believes in science” and believes in the existential risk of climate change is bullshit.
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
> but its a little rich to hear from westerners, who emit more CO2 per person, that the Chinese 1. Most western countries don’t emit more per capita than China. 2. I’m not saying what Xi should or shouldn’t do. I’m telling that what he i
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
> Xi could theoretically reduce GDP and associated emissions with the stroke of a pen He showed he was willing to do that during Covid. If he was really convinced climate change was a problem he could clearly do more than he is. It’s not
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
Sure they are building solar infrastructure. But they’re also still increasing co2 emissions. If you are the autocratic leader with almost total control of 1/3 of the worlds co2, and you believe that climate change is an existential th
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
It is just barely out of the top 10%. 27 out of 207. If you remove counties ahead of with tiny populations like Palau with 40k people, Iceland with 400k, and Greenland with 50k, it is in the top 10%. Since they produce 1/3 of the co2,
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
I took Mandarin in college. I don’t hate China. I don’t think the US is a good country to emulate with respect to climate change mitigation. But if you believe climate change is real, and you have authoritarian control over 1/3 of the
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
No those include maritime shipping. This report from Eurostat is where I got my EU numbers. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/3217494/5711595/KS-D... Maritime is around 37% if you only include dome
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
I said large developed countries. No one cares if Iceland emits more co2 per capita. They have < 400k people. This isn’t about fairness, this is about whether the actions of the leaders of China care about impacting climate change.
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
With respect to performance that’s true. But I’ve probably spent thousands of hours in my career on performance issues caused by small SQL changes. And LLM chaos is unimaginably worse. A single white space can result in a program that has z
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
The rest of that is true but the US moves a much higher percentage of its freight by rail than almost any large developed country. Just in comparison to Europe “46 percent of European freight goes by truck while only 11 percent goes by rail
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
The non-determinism is theoretical solvable. Chaos (prompt instability) isn’t. When you change a single word in the input, you get a completely different output. Because of this LLMs will never be compilers.
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
Determinism is the wrong thing to worry about. As you say an LLM could theoretically be deterministic. Chaos (prompt instability) is the problem that isn’t solvable if you want to treat an LLM like a compiler by doing something like checkin
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
> There are plenty of large (depending on your definition of large) countries above it. Not just US, Australia and Russia that you are excluding for some reason, but also Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Canada None of those count
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
> ahead of every large developed country Because those are the only ones that can move the needle on climate change.
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
China produces 1/3 of the world’s CO2. They already produce more per capita than all other large developed countries except Australia, the US, and Russia. And their rate of growth is higher than all of those countries except Russia. Th
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
In absolute numbers China produces 1/3 of the total worlds CO2, and they are still growing the amount of CO2 they are producing. That is not the actions of a country who “believes in climate change”. China’s CO2 per capita is ahead of
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by sarchertech 3mo ago
A lot of that cheap junk is clothing and food, which now both make up a much lower percentage of total income than they did 100 years ago.

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