rspeele

10 ms·

61.
by rspeele 3y ago
One way to think about is, suppose you switch -- why not switch back ? In the random-open case, you really know nothing new about either of the closed doors. If you can talk yourself into switching, you could make an equally good argument
62.
by rspeele 3y ago
That's especially tempting since we're used to probability problems often being set up where considering previous state is the sucker's answer. E.g. a fair coin has landed on heads three times in a row, what are the odds of i
63.
by rspeele 3y ago
The explanation that worked for me was: Suppose after you make your initial choice, instead of opening a door, Monty simply asks if you'd like to switch to BOTH the other two doors, such that you win if the prize is behind EITHER of th
64.
by rspeele 3y ago
> The global bitcoin system is well within rearch of a hostile state 51%'ing it > I’ll believe it when I see it. They honestly have a better chance outlawing it and imprisoning anyone who’s ever used it. First of all I don't
65.
by rspeele 3y ago
> Also, when talking about extra service payment networks like Visa offering, like anti fraud, gotta remember that at least part of problems this service solving is caused by the design of the network itself. And while it is not obviousl
66.
by rspeele 3y ago
It's meaningful since Bitcoin is the most popular, most energy-consuming crypto and it has this limitation, with no plans of changing. "Well, it's supposed to suck like that" doesn't change that Bitcoin is consuming
67.
by rspeele 3y ago
You can roll back transactions for whatever duration of time you were able to outspend the network. Critically, that can include your own transactions. You mine quietly, outpacing the regular network, creating your own longer chain. Perha
68.
by rspeele 3y ago
Your first point kind of makes it impossible to call anything a waste, right? Everything we do in society is paid for by somebody so it must all be worthwhile. For the second point, are you talking about Layer 2 solutions that track crypt
69.
by rspeele 3y ago
Another reason to keep the stakes small is to avoid problems like the assassination market[0]. I'd rather have podunk, inaccurate prediction markets like PredictIt than one which amounts to putting massive bounties on public figures. O
70.
by rspeele 3y ago
I really enjoyed the market "Will either Biden or Trump concede within 2 weeks of the election?" As I recall "no concession" was priced at like 40c, at the same time that Biden winning the election was priced at somethin
71.
by rspeele 3y ago
Copying my comment from the dead zzzeek post: Long shot bets are almost always overpriced on PredictIt. PredictIt specifically encourages these long shots to be over weighted thanks to their $850 risk limit in any given market. If one long-
72.
by rspeele 3y ago
You are absolutely correct. It doesn't make sense to buy that contract unless you already have the money in your PredictIt balance, you want to keep it there as "dry powder", and you really can't think of a better market
73.
by rspeele 3y ago
As somebody who made a decent chunk of change (enough to get a 1099 from PredictIt in 2020 and 2021) off the situation... long shot bets are almost always overpriced on PredictIt. PredictIt specifically encourages these long shots to be ove
74.
by rspeele 3y ago
I interpreted GP's comment less as "drum sucks compared to disc" and more as "well, it's got brakes" being the only listed safety feature, on a car that is sold in some markets without even airbags. It's k
75.
by rspeele 3y ago
Yeah, Spotify's shuffle sucks. I have the same experience with it picking "favorite" songs and choosing to replay them many times while others in the list go unplayed forever. Maybe it believes those songs are my favorites
76.
by rspeele 3y ago
I think there's probably a different optimum shuffle experience for real playlists like you describe vs. "all my liked songs" where the latter is often what I'd put on in the car by default.
77.
by rspeele 3y ago
> most bitcoin blocks this year have transaction fees greater than the block reward What? [1] https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-fee_to_reward.h...
78.
by rspeele 3y ago
F# does have [<Struct>] DUs now but I believe because of the runtime limitations you mention, it ends up as sizeof(fields of case 1 + fields of case 2 + ...). They might reuse fields of the same type so if your DU cases can carry an A
79.
by rspeele 3y ago
I haven't found the async call stack in VS to be bad unless I'm doing stuff like firing off "async void" calls or firing off "Task.Run"s. It sure does make the stack trace on Exception.ToString() ugly but the c
80.
by rspeele 3y ago
With $90B in USD they could make ~$5B just by doing nothing. Although technically we don't know that they have $90B USD under management, other than them saying so. They have never been audited. All we know for certain is that they h
81.
by rspeele 3y ago
An obvious argument against this: so far we haven't seen a problem at all with halvings. The network's hashrate continues to rise. BUT - that is only due to the increase in purchasing power of BTC. At the last halving in May 2020,
82.
by rspeele 3y ago
One problem I see with the store of value idea, in the long run, is that I don't know if BTC's double spend prevention will survive its design. The point of mining is to prevent double spend attacks. It does this in a rather brute
83.
by rspeele 3y ago
As much as I would like to believe BTC's market is completely fake, there has to be some real liquidity there. The hashrate is ~421 EH/s which represents a tremendous amount of ongoing spending on mining equipment and energy. That
84.
by rspeele 3y ago
Houses have price history, but usually the identity of the owners is a matter of record and if I sold my house to myself, you could see that. I could try to obfuscate this by creating a shell company to buy my own house but that is about 1,
85.
by rspeele 3y ago
Yes. Wash trading for the masses is the biggest innovation of NFTs. It is bananas how many breathless articles were typed and published about how today's crazy kids were buying stoner monkey pictures for $$$ without even a mention of
86.
by rspeele 3y ago
My experience with security auditors from big firms is that they have a checklist including recommendations like 90-day password changes, composition rules, and so on, and will probably never get rid of those. You may be able to explain to
87.
by rspeele 3y ago
The space-padding of char types also applies to zero-padding of binary types in at least some DBs, such as MS SQL Server. This can deliver counterintuitive results. Amaze your friends! select case when 0x1000 = 0x10 then 1 else 0 en
88.
by rspeele 3y ago
That's what it was supposed to do but this time it went down and didn't come back up.
89.
by rspeele 3y ago
When they say it forces client evaluation, what they mean is that any LINQ operations you run after the ToListAsync() will run on the client side - since it's just a normal list in memory at that point and no longer has any knowledge
90.
by rspeele 3y ago
Absolutely, there are times where programmers try to do way too much in LINQ and don't realize that the query being generated to back up their chain of LINQ operations is a monstrosity of thousands of lines of SQL that will grind the s

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