rmrm

10 ms·

61.
by rmrm 9y ago
Projecting bonds being down/increasing yields isnt surprising in any way in inflationary environment. The harder thing to get around is stocks, which should outperform cash in an inflationary environment. To me it just shows that the
62.
by rmrm 9y ago
Taking that line of thought further, that means if bonds and stocks are both down, then cash is a good place to be...when inflation is up? Investing is hard.
63.
by rmrm 9y ago
You can also just buy puts. Puts on SPY increase in value as SP500 declines.
64.
by rmrm 9y ago
part of my biggest sell indication was a visit to the site zerohedge. They are a very bearish - gold centric site. I like to visit sites like these to balance out the generally optimistic news one sees elsewhere. Recently, I have noticed
65.
by rmrm 9y ago
I think it has always been a reasonable assumption that a fall in the real economy would cause cryptos to fall. Play money gets liquidated first when real money (in 401k and stocks) evaporates. And the lack of liquidity in cryptos would c
66.
by rmrm 9y ago
Friday before last I moved 70% out of stocks and bought PUTs in July as insurance on the rest. However, as my history has shown me - one doesnt assume this makes them smart. Could just have been lucky, this time.
67.
by rmrm 9y ago
I do understand that, they engaged in fraud, slight of hand, whatever. But my main interest is what happened after they exchanged USDT for Bitcoin. When they did this, or as they did this, they added $2 billion or marginal demand that d
68.
by rmrm 9y ago
If they hold the bitcoin, yes. I dont think anyone is missing that.
69.
by rmrm 9y ago
No argument there. There are multiple arguments about what Tether is or is not, and what part of this story interests people. Im most fascinated and interested in what form the proceeds of USDT sales are in. If they are holding bitcoins
70.
by rmrm 9y ago
True on volatility and transactions, I shouldnt have said exactly. But volatility speaks to why you would want to exit BTC as quickly as possible, if trying to avoid. One could argue it should net out to nothing over time. I dont see it a
71.
by rmrm 9y ago
Because its exactly equivalent to selling Tether for USD, which we know they do. There are arguments that they couldnt have liquidated so much BTC, but I don't see any specific argument that leads on to assume that they wouldnt ha
72.
by rmrm 9y ago
It would make them "bitcoin rich". They still would need to convert to USD at some point. Which, if their buying and holding is what drove the price higher, would subsequently crash the price.
73.
by rmrm 9y ago
Actually, you are the only one who has brought this up, that the liquidity dictates that they couldnt have sold BTC for USD. If that is true, then youve answered my question of what I was missing. I didnt aggressively fail to address this
74.
by rmrm 9y ago
I dont understand your question. I think the math is fairly straightforward. There is a USD/USDT driven cross. Creating and destroying USDT is straightforward there. There is also a BTC/USDT cross. That creates a drive for USDT.
75.
by rmrm 9y ago
Their assets equal liabilities in either case (whether selling USDT directly for USD, or cyclling them through BTC). Call it what you will, but in neither scenario is anyone rich. Tether if backed by USD at the end of the day is revenue n
76.
by rmrm 9y ago
Buying bitcoin with it and then selling the bitcoin immediately for USD, and banking it would mean they are at least solvent , is they key point he is getting at. Im not sure why anyone would want to trust money to that without audits, bu
77.
by rmrm 9y ago
>I don't have the wealth to get a significant share in anything that produces a return. I don't understand your reasoning as to why this matters to the degree you think it does. Or why a minority share in an unproductive asset
78.
by rmrm 9y ago
Correct. His mindset or sugguestion is to only buy shares in a company you would wish to own entirely, and forever. Buffett stresses the ownership of the underlying business, rather than securities speculation.
79.
by rmrm 9y ago
just wanted to add - the cost of debt and the desire to take on debt, and the laws around mortgage debt, also play a large role.
80.
by rmrm 9y ago
We all, all living beings, are eaten. Such is life. If might be sacrophitic fungi, earthworms, and bacteria, it might be a wolf, it might be a housecat, it might be a vulture. It will likely be a combination of them. But our big brains d
81.
by rmrm 9y ago
Talking about farmscale agriculture, it's hundreds of chickens at least. If it's pastured, they likely need to be moved quite often. Chickens are likely easiest, but on a scale to produce a living for a family, I don't think
82.
by rmrm 9y ago
My point was that entire countries economies and political systems sometimes fail. That hasn't happened in the US in the same way as it's happened elsewhere. But if it had, then "timing" the market, by which I mean sel
83.
by rmrm 9y ago
My issue with this line of thought, is that while completely true, it also doesn't mean a whole lot. It is completely dependent on it being the US stock market. And during a period for that stock market that had a number of incredibly
84.
by rmrm 9y ago
3 months ago I made a shift of 1/3 of my retirement funds to cash. I took 90% of my taxable accounts to cash. It's a risk, of course, everything is, but the valuations of stocks and housing are as you note high. I normally hate
85.
by rmrm 9y ago
There are a variety of reasons people till, and a variety of things that it helps, as well as hurts. Its a quite contentious issue. So far as weeds go - if you think of tillage, it will incorporate all vegetative matter back into the soil
86.
by rmrm 9y ago
I think hindsight is always 20/20. Maybe the path you are on is exactly the right one for you, you never know.
87.
by rmrm 9y ago
"agree" Exactly my point. I understand what you are saying - but in conversation, my reaction is much more like the parent comment, it sounds like an entitled POV. Many people who say such things, in my anecdotal experience, feel
88.
by rmrm 9y ago
because the people that actually own the assets need to agree for this to be ok.
89.
by rmrm 9y ago
I don't think Free Speech has ever meant being required to publish others speech. Freedom of the press was meant to ensure you can say what you wish via pamphlets or starting your own newspaper, wherein you own the method of speech.
90.
by rmrm 9y ago
regarding property, the addition of a prenuptial or postnuptial rider to the main marriage contract makes it quite flexible and negotiable. I guess without you using more words, I won't understand what the actual specific concern is.

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