rlucas

25 ms·

181.
by rlucas 10y ago
Strongly concur. In the mid-2000s, I was looking at a couple of collaborative filtering investments (in the days of RSS readers, the early mainstreaming of recommendation engines, etc.) and in doing some background / tech diligence, d
182.
by rlucas 10y ago
Most of what I've heard of being used as support for attribution are "fingerprints" left behind on compromised devices. Things like characteristics of how variables were named in interpeted code, how binaries were compiled, s
183.
by rlucas 10y ago
> 2) The company ABSOLUTELY CANNOT offer stock options at a discount to the 409A. There is a good chance people would go to jail these days if they did that. Absolutely false. A company can create an option, a warrant, etc. with whateve
184.
by rlucas 10y ago
I'm not suggesting cynicism here or that the common person "shouldn't" matter or be protected. There's a very cogent argument about the development of laws as a way for elites to pragmatically secure their prerogati
185.
by rlucas 10y ago
That's only at the federal level, though. Here in Washington State, a handgun purchased by a permit holder is entered into a state level database which is most certainly computerized. Sadly, I know this because there was a shooting sp
186.
by rlucas 10y ago
> The justification for the rule of law is inherently ideological. If the law is just another pragmatic tool for the powerful to oppress the weak, then why should the masses respect the concept? The ideological justification for the rule
187.
by rlucas 10y ago
I'm not somehow advocating for executive impunity. I'm just responding to ggp about c-levels; saying that it's very plausible that 5300 folks at WF are effectively isolated from c-levels. Also, I tend to agree that secret cor
188.
by rlucas 10y ago
WF is an institution where there almost certainly are 5300 people who've never shook the hand of, much less meaningfully reported to, a C-level.
189.
by rlucas 10y ago
I remember well into the 2000s having it be usual that, while wearing headphones directly connected to the computer's onboard audio, with quiet or no music playing, I could hear characteristic electronic noise for various operations. I
190.
by rlucas 10y ago
"Cost" isn't a scalar where you can compare one source of capital against another of unlike structure (no matter what sophomore ec majors might say). If you have a $1M term loan to Bank of Bankerton, and your payment this mon
191.
by rlucas 10y ago
Hmm, maybe you mean 2x-10x expansion. The world of 10x-100x expansion is the world of venture capital. The specialty lending world of Lighter Capital is about attractive, not explosive, growth -- but at much lower risk of total failure for
192.
by rlucas 10y ago
Ex-Revenue Based Financier here (but speaking only for myself, not Lighter Capital). For the case you're describing, you wouldn't need it, so end of story. A better match would be where there are J-curve and/or "stairst
193.
by rlucas 10y ago
Very fair critique. The SAFE for all its merits is an exit-centric security.
194.
by rlucas 10y ago
That doesn't even make any sense. The average actual life of a VC fund is, according to numbers I got from NVCA a couple years back, over 16 years (despite being originally targeted at 8-10 years). If you wait until a fund is "c
195.
by rlucas 10y ago
There are lots of ways to get a return. I helped start Lighter Capital (originally "RevenueLoan"), which invests a lump sum that gets repaid as a percentage of revenue (like a royalty). That model, Revenue-Based Financing, is ha
196.
by rlucas 10y ago
Not necessarily. VCs' lawyers are big big sticklers for preserving their Reg D exemption from SEC registration, which is contingent upon no general solicitation. If AH wants to be able to sell any LP interests in the next 12 months the
197.
by rlucas 10y ago
There's also: You like money and are neutral toward blacks but there exists a reverse Keynesian beauty contest where you accurately predict that others will redline and hence drive down liquidity and prices, thus making lending less at
198.
by rlucas 10y ago
You're right within the boundaries of what you're considering, meaning testing the profitability of marginal borrowers, etc. But you're missing the big picture question about the use of ML in making political decisions (and y
199.
by rlucas 10y ago
No, that's simply untrue when it comes to taxes. Once you get to the level of money sloshing around that you can afford to pay for legal and banking fees and new corporate entity filings, a whole world of shenanigans opens up, which ar
200.
by rlucas 10y ago
Your numbers are tautological. Everyone including your straw man vc would take 10% of 100 instead of 0.1% of 1000. 10 > 1, qed, but you don't get any points for that observation. (yes, there are situations where taking investor capi
201.
by rlucas 10y ago
The Klinsky explanation you linked to is borderline disingenuous. Nah, it's just disingenuous. It's exhausting and daunting to list all the ways that Klinsky's ELI5 example is meaningfully different from what really happens
202.
by rlucas 10y ago
The people who decide what is "incredibly well" are the institutional investment consultants, e.g. Cambridge Associates, who advise the actual investors in venture (and every other asset class) what is going on in reality. The yar
203.
by rlucas 10y ago
It's also very good specific advice. Investor opinions are signals created by an active market. Think of them as guesses about the number of jellybeans in the jar (by people trying to win a prize). The guesses in aggregate will be r
204.
by rlucas 10y ago
The VC market overall is about 1% the size of the consumer credit market. In consumer credit, those banks who compete to offer you car loan terms are relying on a big ecosystem. There are credit bureaus to give you a FICO score. There are
205.
by rlucas 10y ago
Nope, T Rowe (or TIAA-CREF) invests in your late stage "Series T" rounds all the time recently it seems
206.
by rlucas 10y ago
Insurers (eg casualty insurance) have no interest in the underlying. They are pure speculators. Gotta have a counterparty.
207.
by rlucas 10y ago
One need not posit a theory of causation here to have a legitimate concern about the role of private industry in influencing the criminal justice complex. In fact, one could take all of rayiner's assertions at face value and still sh
208.
by rlucas 10y ago
Oracle hasn't been a "database" company for a long, long time now. (You can license the RDBMS but that's not the real business.) Yes, they have a very robust database. But what they've been selling to enterprises
209.
by rlucas 10y ago
Saying "even investors like A16Z" haven't seen it glosses over that A16Z, founded in 2009, is a babe in the woods as a venture firm, and has not been through even a single cycle yet. (Not ragging on them, but lots of these th
210.
by rlucas 10y ago
Disagree strongly. 1. The funds don't "hold cash" for follow ons. They "reserve capital" which is subsequently called. There's no dead weight uninvested cash drag on irr (or properly, very little of such). 2. &

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