rayiner

20 ms·

421.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> AI companies would literally need the entire world as their TAM, using their services non stop to justify the valuations and level of expenditures we are seeing. What you describe is literally the symptoms of a bubble That’s not true.
422.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> The problem is that much of what makes a "good" lawyer comes from years of doing unglamorous work as a junior, financed by clients. If AI reduces the ability of firms to subsidize training the next generation of lawyers, you
423.
by rayiner 3mo ago
AI is a real thing and it's the most significant development in the legal sector since the Internet. Saturday morning, I spent a couple of hours getting my arms around some discovery, which before would've taken me the whole day.
424.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Why? If you can reach ASI without ASI, then why can’t multiple companies reach ASI on parallel tracks?
425.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Building an off-grid data center is much easier in space where sunlight exposure is predictable and not affected by weather.
426.
by rayiner 3mo ago
The queue to hook up to the Texas grid is 3-5 years long now.
427.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Cost of a full H100 rack is approaching the price to shoot it into space at $1,500 per kilogram.
428.
by rayiner 3mo ago
I'm referring to the description of "today’s space PV-cell technology" (I believe the lightweight panels used to upgrade the ISS in 2021). SSPP has already sent prototypes to space: https://www.caltech.edu/abo
429.
by rayiner 3mo ago
The radiator is much more efficient than the solar panels (for obvious reasons), so that’s not the limiting factor. As to power, Caltech is already at 2-3 pounds per square meter: https://magazine.caltech.edu/post/sspp-
430.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> Also well known that having the institutional knowledge and technical capability to build or adapt something in a fairly short time frame is almost as good as having the thing ready to go. This is similar to how Japan doesn't have
431.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Could we have giant nuclear reactors in space? What's the power loss from beaming down power?
432.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> Is my borderline childish understanding of basic physics THAT off because I cannot see the value or utility (beyond a small smear of niche edge cases) of space-based compute? In the real world, "physics" is not necessarily th
433.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Wow, being able to develop an FFCS engine would be a huge feather in the cap for the Indian aerospace industry.
434.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Catching one trend, like Mark Zuckerberg, is just luck. But there’s clearly CEOs who are able to predict the direction of markets over a sustained period of time across multiple inflection points. E.g. Bill Gates and Steve Jobs.
435.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Knowing where the ball is going to be is a rare skill, and none of the people currently running those companies has that foresight. There’s a reason why there’s many QBs but only one Tom Brady.
436.
by rayiner 3mo ago
The article touts that it’s a “homeownership measure [that] puts people first,” which seems like it’s trying to at least be politically relevant.
437.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Correct. You can argue this is money that you’d otherwise get if it wasn’t going to healthcare, and that’s a fair point. But then you have to count that in the top line income.
438.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> Which ones are in the cooler parts of the country There are very few “cooler parts of the country.” Europe’s “no AC” culture was because, until the 2000s, almost everywhere had less than 15 days a year over 30C (85F). There’s only a ha
439.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> Average temperatures were also lower in 1970 Yes, but not enough to change whether you want AC or not: https://www.extremeweatherwatch.com/cities/washington-dc/yea... . In DC in 1970 you had 98 days above 85 d
440.
by rayiner 3mo ago
My point is that you’re projecting forward into the future where providers need to raise prices, but overlooking the demand that will arise when the rest of the economy starts using AI.
441.
by rayiner 3mo ago
It’s true there’s a spin in that direction. But I think there’s also a tendency to take things for granted in the other direction because they have become so cheap. Food and clothing used to make up significant line items for ordinary peopl
442.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Manufactured goods, food, and clothing. Note that we tend to think of these things as not being a big deal, but that’s colored by the fact they’re so cheap. In 1970, a wall mount AC was about $400, when the median family income was under $1
443.
by rayiner 3mo ago
> Health care, housing, and education are the big three drivers of mandatory expenses in most peoples' lives. BLS says housing, transportation, and food are the top 3. Insurance/pensions is #4, but that also includes car and ho
444.
by rayiner 3mo ago
This isn’t “putting people first,” it’s baking in the cultural assumption that adults live separately from kin. Consider the examples: > Housing unit 1. A couple owns their home. The woman’s parents live with them. > Housing unit 2.
445.
by rayiner 3mo ago
The compute demand is not fake. Non-coding industries have barely begun to deploy this technology. In the legal sector, I’ve been a tech pessimist my entire career, because it was uniformly quite bad. I’ve spent the last few months demoing
446.
by rayiner 3mo ago
I’m not making a point about UK wait times; we’re talking about LLMs as a research tool. I’m using a link I found through Google search as an example to show why LLMs are useful for such questions. As I said in my post, the problem with loo
447.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Source? In my experience, LLMs are especially valuable in that setting. Human generated content tries to put a spin on facts. But with LLMs, you can pull the facts out of such content while making your assumptions explicit. For example, I c
448.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Because LLMs are pretty good at summarizing facts from publicly available sources.
449.
by rayiner 3mo ago
No, economics is just how we describe resource limits and tradeoffs in a methodical way.
450.
by rayiner 3mo ago
Bad things happen all the time even when it’s not the fault of any person or system.

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