overgard

22 ms·

451.
by overgard 5mo ago
I think it matters everywhere -- just because some fields get away with making trash doesn't mean that they're not vulnerable to people taking their lunch by making something distinctly-not-trash. People put up with a lot when the
452.
by overgard 5mo ago
Yup, pretty much. The hard part too is it's not like you can just learn the basics and be able to tell good code apart from bad -- the more you learn to code, the more intricate your understanding of good code is. It's like becomi
453.
by overgard 5mo ago
It's funny, I've noticed my own writing has been getting a lot sloppier the past couple years just so that my writing doesn't get mistaken for AI. I actually used to use "--" pretty much all the time when I was youn
454.
by overgard 5mo ago
People keep saying this and yet the evidence seems pretty thin..
455.
by overgard 5mo ago
It's almost like they used up most of the benefits of scaling and the fundamental issues that people have been talking about with LLMs for years are real.
456.
by overgard 5mo ago
It's an interesting profile, but I don't see why it would change my opinion of him. I already knew he works in PR, it's not like a thing he hides. I don't think one error in a spreadsheet really proves anything (plus he&
457.
by overgard 5mo ago
If the main improvements are coming from improving the harnesses and other things around the AI, I can't help but wonder if the incremental improvement in each model is worth the training costs. I know these companies are in a "ra
458.
by overgard 5mo ago
I suspect it might end up being a credible business model for whoever buys the IP eventually (Microsoft, Google?), but I think OpenAI and Anthropic are so far in the hole debt wise that simply having a credible business model won't be
459.
by overgard 5mo ago
Good lord, what company would want to spend 600k per employee just to go maybe %20 faster (what the studies seem to show is a realistic estimate for productivity gains), I'm building a product right now with some AI coding (despite my
460.
by overgard 5mo ago
A lot of the new hardware requires retrofitting existing datacenters for appropriate cooling, or is waiting to be installed because the new datacenters haven't been built yet. By the time they're installed it's likely a lot o
461.
by overgard 5mo ago
I've yet to meet a person that fits that description IRL. Admittedly I don't live in the valley but I do work in tech. The only place I see that demand is on hacker news (and I imagine twitter - I'm not on it).
462.
by overgard 5mo ago
Um, what poor person is hiring ANYONE? If you're able to hire a software dev, even a laid off one, you are not poor.
463.
by overgard 5mo ago
I keep hearing about this "inflection", but it feels extremely exaggerated to me. And yes, I was using it at the time. It got incrementally better, it wasn't that amazing.
464.
by overgard 5mo ago
Plus, you have to do real GAAP accounting, not their made up metrics.
465.
by overgard 5mo ago
A couple of years ago Altman was saying the price of AI compute is going to drop 90% year over year or something like that, so I don't think they're nervous about talking about lowering their costs. They probably just haven't
466.
by overgard 5mo ago
One thing I genuinely don't understand is these companies are constantly taking in incredibly large amounts of investments, so presumably they're giving up large chunks of equity or these are loans that need to be paid back or the
467.
by overgard 5mo ago
Ed actually provides sources and goes into an incredible amount of detail as to how he came to his conclusions. The average AI booster just goes "I totally built ten businesses off vibe coding but I can't tell you anything because
468.
by overgard 5mo ago
Anthropic isn't actually profitable from what I'm reading, a discount briefly pushed them into the black. This guy makes the case well: https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle... I'm skep
469.
by overgard 5mo ago
Legally, asking personal questions in an interview that are unrelated to the job is a huge minefield, ie, you could be opening the company to discrimination lawsuits. Huge red flag that the company isn't very professional.
470.
by overgard 5mo ago
You should read a book on how LLMs actually work on a technical level. Saying they just need to get "5x better" and suddenly they're performing miracles is just nonsense hyperbole
471.
by overgard 5mo ago
"want to see where it goes". Ok, what if it goes somewhere awful? A "paradigm shift" could easily just mean "corporate feudalism". It's not "small minded" to consider that not all change is good,
472.
by overgard 5mo ago
The powerful people in our society are mostly idiots. The more they're in front of a microphone the more damage they do for themselves.
473.
by overgard 5mo ago
Our sinks will never clog again, at least.
474.
by overgard 5mo ago
I see little evidence that any social role reversal is going to occur. This technology is soon going to price out average to poor people when they have to pay true token costs. It might be the case that only the rich and powerful have acces
475.
by overgard 5mo ago
How would cheaper software development or lawyers massively raise standard of living for other people? Most people that need their standard of living improved don't even own computers, they generally don't have access to the capit
476.
by overgard 5mo ago
I don't see why that should be the case. The only reason software is getting focused on first is: 1. Software devs are obviously going to have a better idea how to apply AI to software development compared to other fields. So of course
477.
by overgard 5mo ago
I have a more depressing theory. I think class is part of it, but I'm starting to suspect that a shockingly large number of people lack the critical thinking skills needed to think out the implications of this stuff. I say that because
478.
by overgard 5mo ago
> Specifically on the topic of next token prediction, we are already past that phase. We really aren't past that phase at all. Reasoning models are just next-token prediction trained in a way where it thinks out loud, essentially. (
479.
by overgard 5mo ago
That's a product, not a skill. We're not talking about people getting cheap cars, we're talking about nobody being able to make a living anymore. And no, this isn't like other revolutions, because there's no "u
480.
by overgard 5mo ago
> If one works for a gun manufacturer, should they feel personally guilty when crimes are committed? I don't think this analogy holds. You could use a gun to commit a crime, but you could also use a gun to defend yourself. On the ot

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