ouid

90 ms·

961.
by ouid 7y ago
The problem with the Stanford study, as I understand it, is that the 95% confidence interval on the false positive rate includes 1.5%, meaning that it is not more than 95% certain that anybody among the people tested was not a false posit
962.
by ouid 7y ago
You have to account for events like the Diamond Princess, if you want to run with that story.
963.
by ouid 7y ago
The distribution of wealth creates a distribution of incentives that behave dynamically. "fixing it at a single point in time" does more than you're saying. Also, there are a number of asymptotic features of "total facto
964.
by ouid 7y ago
When the federal government acts as an insurer of last resort against correlated phenomena, but does not have any ability to set premiums or regulate behavior, companies will seek to maximize their risk in these situations. This includes bu
965.
by ouid 7y ago
Well, except for the part of the article where it is made clear that they don't implement any sort of encryption at all. Zoom is an interface for secretly sending a message to the Chinese government, and then hoping that they secretly
966.
by ouid 7y ago
communications on the platform aren't encrypted at all. That's what the article says.
967.
by ouid 7y ago
If you have the disease and don't have symptoms, you are still infectious, and this is why masks for everyone is one way to combat this virus.
968.
by ouid 7y ago
I closed this after "based on data from China". That's almost as bad as basing it on US data.
969.
by ouid 7y ago
I think japan has shown us one thing. The absolutely dominant effect of closing schools. 1-5000 people in close proximity with high levels of social mixing and a very low rate of symptomatic infection. It's absolutely perfect for incub
970.
by ouid 7y ago
Eh, Chernobyl is not that bad. It's basically a wildlife refuge now.
971.
by ouid 7y ago
No, Amazon is providing an absolutely critical service in this time.
972.
by ouid 7y ago
It is bold of you to assume that there are any non-highly leveraged companies, or that their going under would not already cause a cascade of defaults.
973.
by ouid 7y ago
What about all the companies that have been borrowing vast amounts of money at low interest rates to buy back shares?
974.
by ouid 7y ago
It's looking to me like the only way to fight the coronavirus recession is to have a strong enough testing capacity that we can be relatively sure that the people we are interacting with in the world do not have the virus.
975.
by ouid 7y ago
somehow, I'm skeptical that the US's main mid term problem is going to be too many old people.
976.
by ouid 7y ago
the lancet published that the amount of time you remain infectious after infected is usually 20 days, but can go as high as 40 days. I don't think you understand what you are proposing.
977.
by ouid 7y ago
I mean, if you look out the window and the market hasn't falling 8 percent in a day in over a week, it might be an alright time to buy.
978.
by ouid 7y ago
They're just going to cause more panic, honestly.
979.
by ouid 7y ago
You don't go in to get tested if you are suspected of having coronavirus. If the management is still in the contact tracing phase, they will send someone to you to take a swab. If you have symptomatic CV and you go to a hospital waitin
980.
by ouid 7y ago
You're going to have to include more of your reasoning than that.
981.
by ouid 7y ago
Why can't this be upvoted?
982.
by ouid 7y ago
If the news says "China puts 760 million people on travel restrictions", you should look at the price of puts.
983.
by ouid 7y ago
Markets are not wiggly lines.
984.
by ouid 7y ago
The doubling rate is 3 days. Either we will be in a 3 month long quarantine, or in three months the infection rate will be slowing because there's no one left to infect.
985.
by ouid 7y ago
When China put 10% of the worlds population on travel restrictions, a put on SPY with a strike of 300 expiring this Friday was 29 cents. The optimism is frankly unbelievable.
986.
by ouid 7y ago
Those circuit breakers are not to allow people to come back from "panicked feelings". It's to stop algorithms from deterministically destroying hundreds of billions of dollars.
987.
by ouid 7y ago
One major quarantine benefit of closing schools is that it forces parents to stay home. Bad for the economy, good for R_0.
988.
by ouid 7y ago
The Chernobyl exclusion zone has greater biodiversity than it did before the disaster. Humans are worse for the environment than concentrated radioactive fallout. If you are a billionaire and you want to make a wildlife preserve with your b
989.
by ouid 7y ago
"Do not fear! This is a cyclical phenomenon!" This is caused by coronavirus. This has nothing to do with market patterns.
990.
by ouid 7y ago
alright, thanks.

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