orangecat

6 ms·

31.
by orangecat 1mo ago
Maybe an extra 1% spread doesn't matter if you buy and hold for 50 years, but for 2 years it absolutely does.
32.
by orangecat 1mo ago
Sure you can, the same way you can own a lamp without owning the power plant.
33.
by orangecat 1mo ago
Dedicated Lunatic Fringe player: https://morphing.cloud/lunacy/
34.
by orangecat 1mo ago
People in hospitals are less healthy than the general population. Clearly hospitals make you sick.
35.
by orangecat 2mo ago
The "standard" theory is that amyloid leads to tau protein accumulation which leads to neurodegeneration: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/in-defense-of-the-amyloid-h... . Which would explain why current treat
36.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Fable was able to get Linux booting on my M4 Pro mini. (Using Asahi as a base, not possible to upstream because they really don't like AI). Hardware support beyond USB 2.0 requires tracing macOS under the hypervisor, which Fable refuse
37.
by orangecat 2mo ago
College has gotten so expensive that it's a big cost for pretty much every family. There have been many articles about how no one pays the rack rate anymore, so it's not really as expensive as it seems. Yeah, I've been amus
38.
by orangecat 2mo ago
There was a story about a woman who needed dialysis but had no insurance. And who was in the country illegally so she couldn't use Medicare or Medicaid. Still a terrible situation, but not representative of the typical American.
39.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Can someone explain exactly how the market can in any sense support not one but two trillion dollar valuations Suppose there are 100 million jobs that can benefit from spending $10k/year in tokens. At a conservative 30% margin and su
40.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Right, and it's often very sane. If you're paying $250k/year for a software engineer, it likely makes sense to have them spend $10k/year on tokens from the best available model rather than trying to save a few thousand w
41.
by orangecat 2mo ago
If you tell it to implement something it will go ahead and implement it, without considering how much complexity it adds to the system or weighing alternatives. Recently I asked Claude (Fable) to use multiple threads to speed up a computa
42.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Apparently I'm in the minority, but if a single chunk of functionality legitimately needs a thousand lines of code, I'd rather see it all up front than have to review 5 separate PRs that don't do anything until they're c
43.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Keep deluding yourself, unless you work for an LLM provider You're clearly operating in bad faith, but just for the record: the General365 problems are very difficult as you can see from the examples at https://arxiv.org&#
44.
by orangecat 2mo ago
This is widely believed, but not true: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N . There is a real issue that housing is unreasonably expensive in many areas, which we could fix via the innovative strategy of not
45.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Yeah, Go is easy to read in the same sense that English limited to its ten hundred most common words is easy to read ( https://xkcd.com/1133/ ). Whether that nature is helpful or harmful to LLMs is an interesting questio
46.
by orangecat 2mo ago
The fact of the matter is that the only thing that matters to most people is what makes economic sense to them. Yes, and that's why we should have carbon taxes that better align what makes economic sense with what's environmenta
47.
by orangecat 2mo ago
The world doesn't need an invention to save it. Just put that energy into caring about others. This is an excellent summary of the sort of anti-tech thinking that I strongly disagree with. Caring about people with Alzheimer's is
48.
by orangecat 2mo ago
His argument for rejecting AI is that it doesn't matter that it slows progress because the field doesn't actually produce any benefits other than warm fuzzies for mathematicians. Ok, good luck leading with that when you're as
49.
by orangecat 2mo ago
In fact I don't think that rich people are cartoon villains who enjoy watching the poors starve. If AI leads to greatly increased productivity, then at existing tax rates there will be more than enough to provide good living conditions
50.
by orangecat 2mo ago
do not seem to have found any possible positive outcome to present See "Machines of Loving Grace" by Dario Amodei: https://darioamodei.com/essay/machines-of-loving-grace .
51.
by orangecat 2mo ago
I'm confused by the US conservatives' full court press for fossil fuels and against wind/solar. It's almost all tribalism: the left is for it, so they're against it. They have a partially valid point that a lot of
52.
by orangecat 2mo ago
Back of a very tiny envelope: suppose there are 100 million jobs that benefit from spending $10k/year in tokens. That's a trillion in annual revenue; at a 30% margin that's $300 billion in profits, which can easily support $6
53.
by orangecat 3mo ago
You can find an extremely similar paragraph written about Claude 4.x or some equivalent gpt Yes, as a product gradually improves there will always be many people for whom version X didn't work well for them and version X+1 does. It t
54.
by orangecat 3mo ago
That seems to be for the "AA-Omniscience" test where you get +1 for a correct answer, -1 for a wrong answer, and 0 for "I don't know". If a model is more than 50% confident in its answer, it should go ahead and subm
55.
by orangecat 3mo ago
so how else will they do that By selling more tokens, which by all reasonable accounts are profitable on the margin.
56.
by orangecat 3mo ago
People said this a year ago A year ago Opus 4.1 was $75 per million tokens, and now Opus 4.8 is $25 and Fable is $50.
57.
by orangecat 3mo ago
Not surprising that Bluesky is perpetually in peak woke mode, but the racism claims are absurd. If Russia were doing the same thing, would we have no problem with that because they're white?
58.
by orangecat 3mo ago
Distilling is still fair I generally agree, in the same sense that it's "fair" for the US and China to spy on each other. It's not a moral outrage, but it is something that the targets can and should try to prevent.
59.
by orangecat 3mo ago
some people genuinely believe these LLM-based computer programs are human-like intelligences "If LLMs were human-like intelligences they would do X, but they don't". What is X? In reality, they're more like very good
60.
by orangecat 3mo ago
Yeah. And really their default tone isn't that bad objectively, it's more that it becomes annoying when it's everywhere. There are a bunch of writers with distinctive styles that I enjoy, but would quickly get sick of if half

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