noirbot

99 ms·

841.
by noirbot 6y ago
I think the question is if it matters to the predictive accuracy of the model. Just because it puts out results you can't envision actually happening on the margins doesn't mean they can't happen, or that they can't be v
842.
by noirbot 6y ago
But wouldn't that mostly be concentrated in places/areas where their votes aren't likely to matter? Having just driven through the US South in the last month, I can confidently tell you people are not in any way shy about the
843.
by noirbot 6y ago
It seems more likely that it's actually the other way. Nate Silver has specifically said he built the model to have relatively high uncertainty, especially with the volatility of this year, so this seems more like the outcome of intent
844.
by noirbot 6y ago
I wonder if that is true for people who were also likely to vote? I know registering to vote was one of the first things I do whenever I move, and I've also voted in every election since I've been allowed to.
845.
by noirbot 6y ago
It is worth noting that they explicitly aren't accounting for any election tampering/throwing out ballots in the model, so that final hypothetical isn't something they're factoring in. Your "an explosion kills every
846.
by noirbot 6y ago
To me, this mostly tracks with what 538 has said on record about how their model works and the design philosophy behind parts of it. To me, what Nate means when he says "directionally the right approach in terms of our model's tak
847.
by noirbot 6y ago
Only if they say that every day, and it rains every day. If the most likely outcome happened every time, then the model is likely wrong/under-confident. The prediction is never going to be 100% accurate until the event is happening&#x2
848.
by noirbot 6y ago
This also assumes that "nightmarish tasks" don't involve things that could lose you your job. I've worked to dodge plenty of tasks, both personally and on a team, where I felt that taking on that task would set me or my
849.
by noirbot 6y ago
I'd rather be paid money to write code/do technical work instead of getting into bikeshedding fights with opinionated members of other teams. There's plenty of tickets I put off doing because I know it will be hard to feel li
850.
by noirbot 6y ago
I'm not sure I follow? You usually don't just "not have a minimum wage when it doesn't make sense". This is a regulation on contracts - it's not something that will be decided on a case by case basis every day.
851.
by noirbot 6y ago
How does that work now for part-time work? I would assume that working at Walmart for 10 hours doesn't include a clause that says I can't work at Target for 10 hours as well. All of this gets messier because most "normal&quot
852.
by noirbot 6y ago
Also, doesn't this incentivize drivers to intentionally be "on the clock" in places and at times where they won't get rides? I can't just decide that Starbucks has to pay me to be behind the counter from 2-5 AM ever
853.
by noirbot 6y ago
I think this brings up a problem though. By raising the cost of labor, you're more incentivized to try to make sure that labor is used efficiently. This is why, pre-Uber, it was hard to impossible to get taxis in some small towns, subu
854.
by noirbot 6y ago
But that's not exactly the same. If I'm working part time at Starbucks, but no one comes into the store, I'm still paid my hourly wage for being there. If I'm logged in to Uber and Lyft and waiting for a ride on both, an
855.
by noirbot 6y ago
If anything, this somewhat refutes the GP's point. Giving money to low-income people and increasing their spending didn't make up for the larger decrease in high-income spending. This is not to say that we shouldn't support l
856.
by noirbot 6y ago
I'm not sure that's true in whole though. I think it's more that the wealthy are more hit by the sort of things you can't do right now. I know I'm saving money by not taking much/any vacation this year, since f
857.
by noirbot 6y ago
Yea, I've been mostly trying to stay in this sort of situation more now. There's times where I want the experience and spacial efficiency of Airbnb (A way to stay in a part of town close to friends/an event that don't li
858.
by noirbot 6y ago
Some of the issue is that you're almost always still voting for people. People have to implement the ideas and make them happen. There's any number of policies that I'm in favor for if they worked perfectly, but I don't
859.
by noirbot 6y ago
I see this with a lot of folks - they stream on Twitch and then the audio shows up on Mixcloud/Soundcloud, and sometimes the video on Youtube later on. You get the fun of watching it live, but then also enjoy replays later on.
860.
by noirbot 6y ago
I think it's likely also some amount of wanting to support people. I know I've added subscriptions to some streamers I've always watched because I'm watching more of their content now that I'm at home all the time.
861.
by noirbot 6y ago
Which has turned out to be a really great habit to have now that going to the grocery store regularly is pretty unsafe.
862.
by noirbot 6y ago
Yea, I don't mean it to say there's no reason for it. That underlying issue tracks with what I'd expect. This comes back to another point that's been made elsewhere in this thread - it's always going to be easier to
863.
by noirbot 6y ago
Something I think may be related, but I don't have strong evidence for, is that I think some of the high Quality shown in Japanese work is also evidence of a tendency towards not trying to do everything. Things I've noticed in a l
864.
by noirbot 6y ago
Sure, and this is a balance that happens in every sector. I'm just pointing out that there's obviously a balancing act between what you can demand from companies in regulation, and what will push them far enough to make them nonvi
865.
by noirbot 6y ago
Textbooks aren't regulated in the governmental sense (though they are somewhat at the middle/high school level), but there's certainly been more "regulation" in the sense of schools trying to enforce what books are
866.
by noirbot 6y ago
It's also not something I'd want to start a business on. Even assuming you think you can make the economics of it work out under the new regulation, you're gambling that CA doesn't change the law again later - either rol
867.
by noirbot 6y ago
Well, they did get more alternatives, but a worse UX and more fragmented driver base that was smaller due to the added regulation meant that I just ended up driving more places myself. It became too expensive to take to go out drinking, so
868.
by noirbot 6y ago
I'm not actually sure. I lived in Austin during the time, and it was nice, but it also meant I needed to have 2-3 Austin-specific rideshare apps, Uber and Lyft, and then Juno for when I was in NYC. It was just cumbersome. I wasn't
869.
by noirbot 6y ago
I'm saying that, in a world where campus needs to be closed for safety reasons, but professors can teach online, it's possible to both reduce/discount tuition and still pay professors near what they were making before since t
870.
by noirbot 6y ago
I'm not arguing it one way or another, but just saying that even if it's true that the class provides less "value" if it's online, it's almost definitely more work, or at least different work than most of the p

More ›